GAME INFO:
April 2, 2022
8:49pmTip Off
Caesars Superdome (Capacity: 74,295)
New Orleans, LA
TV: TBS
UNC is given a 31.5% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
#8 UNC: 28-9 (15-5 in ACC)
#2 Duke: 32-6 (16-4 in ACC)
Last Time Out:
SERIES INFO:
• Carolina is 142-115 against the Blue Devils.
• The Tar Heels are 27-22 vs. Duke at neutral sites, including 3-3 outside the state of North Carolina (2-1 in New York City and 1-2 in Atlanta).
• This is the first time the teams are playing each other in an NCAA Tournament game. It is their second postseason matchup other than a conference tournament game. On 3/25/1971, the Tar Heels beat Duke, 73-67, in Madison Square Garden in the NIT semifinals. Two days later Carolina beat Georgia Tech for the NIT championship.
• George Karl scored a game-high 21 points for the Tar Heels in the '71 NIT game in New York.
• It is the first time the teams have played in a game other than a regular-season ACC contest or an ACC Tournament game since 12/5/1980, when Carolina beat Duke, 78-76, in Greensboro, N.C., in the Big Four Tournament. The Big Four was an early-season, two-day event held nine times from 1970-80 that featured UNC, Duke, NC State and Wake Forest.
• The Tar Heels are 49-50 against Mike Krzyzewski's Duke teams, including a 94-81 win in Durham on March 5 in the most recent game.
• Carolina and Duke are No. 1 and 2 all-time in the ACC in wins, ACC regular-season wins, ACC Tournament wins and NCAA Tournament wins.
• Carolina has won the ACC regular-season title 32 times. The Blue Devils are second with 20.
• Either Carolina or Duke have played in the NCAA Final Four 27 times in the last 42 seasons.
• The Tar Heels and Blue Devils have combined to win 10 national championships in the previous 41 seasons – five by Carolina and five by Duke.
• Carolina is playing in its NCAA-record 21 Final Fours. Duke is playing in its 17th.
• Hubert Davis was 6-5 as a player against the Blue Devils, including 2-1 in the postseason (the 1989, 1991 and 1992 ACC Tournament finals).
TAR HEELS IN NEW ORLEANS
• Carolina is 14-1 in New Orleans, including 5-1 in the NCAA Tournament and 4-0 in the Final Four.
• This is Carolina's first game in the Superdome since the 2001 NCAA Tournament. It is the Tar Heels' first game in New Orleans since beating Ohio State in the Smoothie King Center in the CBS Sports Classic on 12/23/2017.
• Carolina is 8-1 in the Superdome, including winning the 1982 and 1993 NCAA championships.
• In 1982, James Worthy, Michael Jordan and Sam Perkins led the Tar Heels past Houston and Georgetown to claim Dean Smith's first NCAA title.
• Worthy scored 28 points in the title game, which UNC won, 63-62, on a jump shot by Jordan, a freshman, with 17 seconds to play.
• Eleven years later, sharp-shooting Donald Williams, George Lynch and Eric Montross gave Smith his second title by defeating Kansas and Michigan in the Final Four.
• Williams scored 25 points in both games. No other player has scored 25 or more in both the national semifinal and championship game since Williams accomplished that 29 years ago.
• In 2001, the Tar Heels came to the Superdome as a No. 2 seed and defeated Princeton before losing in the second round to Penn State.
• In addition to an 8-1 record in the Superdome, which includes three regular-season games, the Tar Heels are 6-0 in three other venues in New Orleans (2-0 in Municipal Auditorium, 2-0 in Tulane Gym and 2-0 in the Smoothie King Center in 2017).
Want even more stats? Check this link out: https://goheels.com/news/2022/4/1/mens-basketball-tar-heels-to-meet-duke-in-final-four-saturday-night.aspx
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (16.5 PPG)
Duke: P. Banchero (17.1 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (12.8)
Duke: P. Banchero (7.7)
Assists:
UNC: Love (3.7)
Duke: W. Moore Jr. (4.4)
Saint Peters Notes:
Armando Bacot had 20 points on 8-15 shooting, 4-9 FT, 22 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 TOs, 2 blocks
Brady Manek had 19 points on 7-11 shooting, 4-6 from 3, 1-2 FT, 8 rebounds, 1 assist
Caleb Love had 14 points on 6-17 shooting, 2-10 from 3, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 TOs
RJ Davis had 9 points on 2-11 shooting, 5-5 FT, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 TOs, 4 steals
Leaky Black had 5 points on 1-2 shooting, 3-4 FT, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks, 2 steals
Puff Johnson had 2 points on 1-2 shooting, 1 assist
TEAM STATS:
41% FG (25-61)
27.3% 3 PT (6-22)
61.9% FT (13-21)
49 rebounds
15 assists
8 TOs
5 blocks
6 steals
So who would have guessed that Tobacco Road would lead to New Orleans? Cue “Calling Baton Rouge.” I’m probably dating myself on that reference. The Eric Church fans probably get it though. The matchup we thought would never happen is happening. Carolina will face Duke for a shot at the national championship game on the line. But hey we are on the back side of a pandemic (Well maybe. Depends who you ask but we aren’t getting into that), Putin is doing his best Stalin impression and inflation is the highest it's been since the Heels first natty in New Orleans, so why not? Why would this matchup not happen right now? Why would it not happen in coach K’s final year? If any team is scripted to end this ridiculous farewell tour, it’s Carolina and it really is only fitting that Duke would have to go through Carolina in K’s last season.
You can talk about the revenge factor for Duke. Sure. Whatever. The mental aspect of this game is the most important and I would like to start this article out by explaining why I think Carolina has the mental edge.
Carolina knows they can beat Duke. They went into Cameron and did the impossible when they ruined Coach K’s farewell party. I didn’t think it was possible for that game to be fairly called or for the basketball gods to allow Carolina to win. It happened. It was great. It was super embarrassing for Duke. That put Duke on notice. Duke knows Carolina can beat them. I think that is living rent free in their minds. Carolina is confident. They are playing the best basketball at the right time. Duke is playing not to lose. Carolina is playing to win. Both teams are playing for their coach but for very different reasons. Duke is playing not to embarrass their coach again. Carolina is playing for the love of their coach. HD crying at the end of the Saint Peters game and asking the reporter to speak to the players combined with the players pointing at HD tells you all you really need to know. And then add that HD turned to Roy during the celebration and said “thank you” and Bacot tried to get Roy to come down to the court. Carolina is different. So I think Carolina has the mental advantage here but that is probably a little biased.
So how in the world did we end up here? Carolina beat defending national champion, Baylor, and then beat UCLA who returned their core players from their Final Four run last year. Carolina then took Saint Peters who had beaten Kentucky and Purdue. The Heels very much made the Peacocks look like a MAAC team. Duke got past a pesky Michigan State team. And then defeated 2 tough defensive teams in Texas Tech and Arkansas. Dukek shot 70.8% in the second half against Texas Tech as the Red Raiders folded. Arkansas was definitely their most complete game of the tournament. You can debate who had the harder road but check the average seed for both teams: 7.25.
Carolina:
Beat #9 Marquette 95-63
Beat #1 Baylor 93-86 OT
Beat #4 UCLA 73-66
Beat #15 Saint Peters 69-49
Average seed: 7.25
Duke:
Beat #15 Cal State Fullerton 78-61
Beat #7 Michigan State 85-76
Beat #3 Texas Tech 78-73
Beat #4 Arkansas 78-69
Average seed: 7:25
Duke has done it mainly on offense. Kenpom has Duke as the most efficient offense in the country. Duke has shot the ball well, tournament best 53.8%, which is also the fifth highest entering a Final Four since 2000. Duke is not settling for 3’s and are attacking the paint. They are averaging 41.5 points in the paint during the NCAA tournament (most in the tournament). Duke has been paced by Banchero who has the second highest scoring average (in the tournament) of the remaining players at 18.5 PPG. Roach has also emerged and has even taken over Keels starting spot.
Carolina is the No. 1 team in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency since March 1st. So where Carolina has won more because of their much improved defense, their offense is not lacking by any means. Carolina has had a different leading scorer in every NCAA tournament game. Love and Davis have each had 30 point games, Brady Manek has scored 26 or more twice, and Bacot has a double double in every postseason game. Brady Manek also leads the tournament in scoring at 21.5 PPG. Love is third at 18 PPG, so this game will feature the top three scorers remaining in the tournament. Carolina is also playing at the fastest tempo in the tournament at 73.2 possessions per game.
Duke rates last in adjusted defensive efficiency of the 4 teams remaining. They have switched to zones at times and it's been highly effective. This played a huge factor in the second half against Texas Tech. They also went to a zone during the second half against Arkansas. It changed the rhythm of both games and allowed Duke to get out in transition.
Duke’s rotation is down to 7 guys, but it’s really just the starters and Keels.
STARTERS:
W. Moore Jr G (JR 6-5)
AJ Griffin G (FR 6-6)
P. Banchero F (FR 6-10)
M. Williams F (SO 7–1)
J. Roach G (SO 6-2)
BENCH:
T. Keels G (FR 6-5)
T. John F (GR 6-9)
As mentioned above, Roach has really come on during the tournament, but it has somewhat been a detriment to Keels. The tournament stats for each team’s top 7 are below:
DUKE:
Moore: 14 PPG, 62.9% FG (17/27),53.8% 3PT (7/13)
Griffin: 11.5 PPG, 50% FG (17/34), 40% 3PT (8/20)
Banchero: 18.5 PPG, 50.9% FG (26/51) 53.3% 3PT (8/15)
Williams: 14.5 PPG, 83.3% FG (25/30), 8.75 RPG
Roach: 12.75 PPG, 51.3% FG (19/37), 25% 3PT (2/8)
Keels: 6.75 PPG, 40.7% FG (11/27), 20% 3PT (2/10)
John: 1.5 PPG, 75% FG (3/4)
CAROLINA:
Love: 18 PPG, 38.7% FG (24/62), 37.5% 3PT (15/40)
Davis: 13.75 PPG, 28.5% FG (14/49), 30.4% 3PT (7/23)
Manek: 21.5 PPG, 57.6% FG (30/52), 47% 3PT (16/34)
Bacot: 16.5 PPG, 50% FG (24/48), 15.75 RPG
Black: 3.75 PPG, 42.8% FG (6/14), 0% (0-3)
Johnson: 4.25 PPG, 66.6% FG (8/12), 33.3% 3PT (1/3)
Styles: 3.75 PPG, 58.3% FG (7/12), 20% 3PT (1/5)
If you add up the scoring averages, Duke is at 79.5. Carolina is at 81.5.
So if you break it down even more, it’s pretty obvious that Duke is shooting at a higher percentage than Carolina. You also notice that Duke’s main guys have a lot less shot attempts than Carolina’s main guys. Couple of reasons for that: Duke spreads out their shots over 6 guys whereas Carolina it’s only 4. Carolina also plays at a faster tempo. Carolina is also shooting a lot more 3’s. This is pretty simple to break down… Carolina relies on the 3. Duke has shifted to going inside more. Less shots will usually lead to a higher percentage. Moore, Griffin and Banchero are shooting it well. Banchero and Moore are above their season averages whereas Griffin is below. Griffin shoots 45.8% on the season from 3 which is the best of any player in the Final Four and is good enough to be top 20 nationally. This is why it’s so important to shut Griffin down.
Carolina did just that in the previous matchup. Griffin was held to 5 points on 2-5 shooting and 1-3 from 3 in 34 minutes. Black guarded him most of the night. This is why Black needs to be on Griffin again in this matchup. Banchero got his as he went for 23 points. Carolina focused on limiting the players around Banchero and it paid off.
We all know Carolina had 4 players that scored over 20 points in the previous matchup. Bacot, Love, Davis, and Manek all had huge games and the game would not have been won otherwise but let’s look at some other stats.
Carolina won the game down the stretch by getting stops and pretty much getting whatever they wanted on offense. Carolina shot 48.5% from the field. Duke shot 49.3%. Both teams shot the ball well obviously.
Free throws were a huge factor. Carolina shot 86.4% from the line going 19-22. Duke was 6-8. Each team had the same amount of fouls called on them, Carolina just got to the basket and drew more contact.
Second chance points also really weren’t a factor, probably because both teams shot the ball really well. Duke won that category 9-6.
Duke won the points in the battle 52-40 and the fast break points battle 20-14. But Carolina won the rebounding battle 37-34.
Both teams had a clean game. Both teams had single digit turnovers but Carolina won the battle 5-9.
Carolina wasn’t lights out from distance but it was just good enough. They shot 39.1% going 9-23. I would imagine the Heels need to make 8-10 on Saturday night to win the game. They don’t need an outstanding performance from deep but they can’t have a terrible performance either.
So summary:
Limit Griffin and company
Limit turnovers
Win the rebounding battle
Get to the free throw line, make free throws
Season average or better from 3
The stats in full are below for both Carolina and Duke.
Another key for Carolina is to execute the pick and roll. The Heels have used the pick and roll on 30% of possessions in the 2 matchups against Duke. Their season average is 19%. The pick and roll has also been highly effective in the tournament specifically against Saint Peters. Carolina needs to utilize this in order to keep Mark Williams out of the paint. He won defensive player of the year for his shot blocking abilities not his ability to move his feet. This would allow Bacot to slip down low for some easy baskets. You also saw Bacot kinda fake the pick against Saint Peters and roll to the basket. If Carolina can execute the pick and roll it will open up a lot of options. Duke could go zone to beat this which is another reason why Carolina needs to shoot it well from outside.
The talk around Carolina is the “Iron Five” and rightfully so. There is a drop off when you go to the bench which doesn’t happen very often. Johnson or Styles could be called upon this game, but if foul trouble isn’t a factor then that won’t happen very much. Duke has their 6 guys. So there really isn’t a depth issue in this game. It’s Carolina 5 versus Duke’s 6 and well you can only play 5 players at a time. Duke has 3 players that average over 30 minutes. Carolina has 4. All of these guys play big time minutes. It’s laid out below:
MINUTES (SEASON):
DUKE:
Moore Jr. leads the team in minutes with 33.9 minutes per game.
Banchero and Keels both average over 30 minutes a game.
Roach is at 29.3 minutes a game.
Williams and Griffin both average 23 minutes a game.
John averages 11.
CAROLINA:
Love leads the team in minutes at 33.9 minutes a game.
Davis is right there with 33.8 minutes a game.
Manek and Bacot are around 30-31 a game.
Black averages 29.4.
Johnson averages 10.1.
Styles averages 5.9.
Mckoy averages 7.4.
As noted above, Griffin, Moore Jr and Banchero are the guys shooting it the best from 3 in the tournament and their season averages reflect that for the most part. Banchero is shooting way better in the tournament as compared to the entire season. The 3 point percentages for Duke and Carolina are below:
3 POINT PERCENTAGES (SEASON):
DUKE
Banchero 33.3% (42-126)
Moore Jr. 41.1% (51-124)
Keels 31.3% (52-166)
Griffin 45.8% (71-155)
Roach 33.6% (39-116)
CAROLINA:
Love 37.1% (89-240)
Manek 39.8% (92-231)
Davis 37.4% (64-171)
Black 33.3% (15-45)
Johnson 21.7% (5-23)
Styles 17.6% (3-17)
Love, Davis, and Manek all shoot very respectable percentages from deep when you consider the amount of attempts. Duke has no one close to 200 attempts. All 3 of those guys will have to knock down some shots Saturday night.
The defensive assignments should come as no surprise. Bacot vs. Williams. Davis vs. Roach. Love vs Moore Jr. Manek vs. Banchero. Black vs. Griffin. That is my guess anyway based on the previous 2 matchups. Bacot has to stay out of foul trouble against Williams. He wasn’t able to do this in either of the previous matchups. Carolina was able to overcome it in the second matchup but I rather not have to weather that again. Roach has been hot as of late. Davis has to keep him in front. Luckily for Davis, he isn’t undersized in this matchup. Roach also isn’t shooting it well from deep in the tournament so Davis needs to protect against the drive and the midrange game. Moore Jr has had a solid tournament. Love can’t lose him. I think you approach the Banchero matchup the same way it was handled in the second matchup. Manek guards him, bring some double teams, and Black gets some time on him when the personel allows for it. Black needs to have another outstanding performance against Griffin. I think he is the X factor for Duke. Black limited his shot attempts in the second matchup and the best way to limit a shooter like Griffin is to make sure he doesn’t get a lot of shots off.
For Carolina, I think Manek is the X factor. He has had an incredible tournament. He had 20 points in the second matchup, 21 in the first. He is shooting a combined 11-20 from behind the arc against Duke. He also played every minute in the win in Cameron. Manek has to make some outside shots to stretch Duke’s defense and maybe even shoot Duke out of a zone. He is also a great cutter and passer. He doesn’t have Final Four experience but he has more tournament experience than anyone else on the roster. His experience comes up big in this game.
A big talking point this whole tournament has been the officiating and we can all hope it doesn’t play a factor tomorrow night. The refs will be motivated to call a close game (in terms of contact) so they don’t lose control of this game. There will be a lot of emotions and I bet it'll get chippy. The refs can not afford to lose control of this game like what happened in the Baylor game. Carolina just has to be smart. Whatever happens tomorrow night, I hope the outcome is determined by the play of both teams and not the officiating. God please keep Roger Ayers far away from this game.
KEYS TO THE GAME:
Settling in (This game will have a lot of emotions and there is a lot of fanfare around it. It’s being talked about as potentially being one of the most watched sporting events in history. Not only is it a Final Four game, it’s a Final Four game against your rival. Emotions and nerves will be high. Whoever can shake that and settle in first will win this game.)
Limit Turnovers (Carolina won the game in Cameron by taking care of the basketball. They only had 6 turnovers. Carolina needs another single digit turnover game.)
Win the Rebounding Battle (Bacot is an outstanding rebounder and he needs to flex his muscles here. Domes and the larger football stadiums are not the most shooter friendly so there is a potential for a lot more missed shots than in the second matchup. Carolina needs to hit the glass. They don’t win this game without winning the rebounding battle.)
Making 3’s (Again sounds obvious, but Carolina needs to make shots. They weren’t great in the last matchup but they weren’t terrible. Carolina can not have a terrible performance from deep and expect to win. They went 9-23 in Durham. They will once again need to make 8-10 3’s.)
X Factors (Griffin is the X factor for Duke. Black needs to shut him down again. Duke may play through Banchero but Griffin is a huge part of their success. Manek is the x factor for Carolina. He has had a really good tournament and has put up 21 and 20 points against Duke so he has been steady. You almost know what you are going to get from Manek, but he is Carolina’s best option from deep and Carolina needs to make some 3’s to win.)
It’s been fun watching these guys enjoy the moment and to see the players hug their parents, each other and the coaching staff after these wins. It’s been cool to see all the content UNC Basketball is putting out on their social media accounts of fans welcoming the guys back or sending them off. The pictures and videos of the guys in New Orleans are awesome. Sometimes we forget these guys are human. This is a once in a lifetime experience and it’s so cool to see these guys getting to experience that. But as RJ said “This is a business trip.” Play hard for 40 minutes and see what happens. New Orleans has been pretty good to the Heels in the past.
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