GAME INFO:
April 4, 2022
9:20pmTip Off
Caesars Superdome (Capacity: 74,295)
New Orleans, LA
TV: TBS
UNC is given a 29.5% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
#8 UNC: 29-9 (15-5 in ACC)
#1 Kansas: 33-6 (14-4 in Big 12)
Last Time Out:
SERIES INFO:
• The Tar Heels are 6-5 all-time against Kansas although the Jayhawks have won the last three matchups, all in the NCAA Tournament (2008, 2012 and 2013).
• UNC is 2-4 vs. Kansas in the NCAA Tournament with wins in the 1957 title game and 1993 semifinal in New Orleans. KU beat Carolina in the 1991 semifinals, the 2008 semifinals, the 2012 Elite 8 and the 2013 second round.
• Carolina and Kansas are playing in the Final Four for the fifth time, two more than any other matchup in Final Four history (Duke-Kansas, UCLA-Louisville and UNC-Michigan State have all played three times in the Final Four).
• Kansas and Carolina rank first and third, respectively, in all-time wins.
• The Tar Heels have the most NCAA Tournament wins in history (131) while KU is fourth with 114.
• Carolina is first in Final Fours with 21; Kansas is fifth with 16.
• Carolina is second all-time in NCAA Tournament winning percentage (.732) and the Jayhawks are fifth (.704).
• The first five games in the series were decided by an average of 5.6 points, which included a pair of one-point games. The last five games (including two UNC wins) have all been decided by 10 or more points.
• The Carolina and Kansas connections are numerous and historic. Dean Smith played at Kansas, winning a national championship in 1952 and playing in another Final Four in 1953. He led UNC to 879 wins and two NCAA titles as head coach.
• Roy Williams won 418 games in 15 seasons as Kansas's head coach from 1988-2003 and led the Jayhawks to four Final Four appearances. Williams won 485 games and three national titles in 15 seasons as UNC's head coach.
• Larry Brown played at Carolina under Smith and won a national title as KU head coach in 1988.
• Dick Harp was KU's head coach against UNC in 1957 and was later an administrative assistant under Smith at UNC from 1986-89, where he was on staff in 1988-89, Hubert Davis's freshman season.
• Carolina's strength and conditioning coach, Jonas Sahratian, was in a similar role at KU from 1999-2003. He is in his 18th season at Carolina.
• Steve Robinson and Joe Holladay were assistant coaches under Williams at both schools.
• Jerod Haase and C.B. McGrath played for Williams at KU and were assistant coaches at UNC with Williams.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS:
UCLA 11
Kentucky 8
North Carolina 6
Indiana 5
Duke 5
Kansas 3
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME APPEARANCES
Kentucky 59
North Carolina 52
Kansas 50
UCLA 49
Duke 44
Want more stats? Check out this link: https://goheels.com/news/2022/4/3/mens-basketball-tar-heels-vs-kansas-for-national-title-monday-night.aspx
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (16.3 PPG)
Kansas: O. Agbaji (18.9 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (13.1)
Kansas: J. Wilson (7.5)
Assists:
UNC: Davis (3.7)
Kansas: D. Harris Jr (4.2)
Duke Notes:
Caleb Love had 28 points on 11-20 shooting, 3-10 from 3, 3-4 FT, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 4 TOs
RJ Davis had 18 points on 6-13 shooting, 2-4 from 3, 4-4 FT, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 TO
Brady Manek had 14 points on 4-10 shooting, 3-6 from 3, 3-6 FT, 4 rebounds, 2 TOs, 3 blocks
Armando Bacot had 11 points on 3-10 shooting, 5-8 FT, 21 rebounds, 2 TOs, 1 block, 1 steal
Leaky Black had 8 points on 3-9 shooting, 2-5 from 3, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 TO, 1 block
Puff Johnson had 2 points, 2-2 FT, 1 steal
TEAM STATS:
42.2% FG (27-64)
38.5% 3 PT (10-26)
70.8%% FT (17-24)
50 rebounds
7 assists
10 TOs
5 blocks
2 steals
22 second chance points
In the 2 victories over Duke, Black has limited Griffin to 2-13 (1-7 from 3) and 11 points
Bacot recorded his 30th double double and passed Tim Duncan as the all time double doubles leader in a single ACC season.
Carolina will be playing for the natty on Monday night after defeating Duke for a second time this season and ruining Coach K’s farewell tour… again. What a fitting ending. Coach K finishes his career 50-50 against Carolina, forever average against the Tar Heels while losing 4 of the last 5 against the better blue.
Carolina was paced by Davis in the first half and then propelled to victory on a Love 3 with 25 seconds left. By the way, that shot was over ACC defender of the year, Mark Williams. I want that shot framed and hanging in my house somewhere. You can’t talk about the 2 victories without talking about the job Leaky Black did on Griffin. He held Griffin to 2-13 shooting (1-7 from 3) and 11 total points in Carolina’s 2 victories over Duke. Black also hit more 3 pointers last night than Griffin did in Duke’s 2 losses to Carolina. Carolina doesn’t win those games without the defensive play of Leaky Black. The rest of the team were able to limit Moore to 10, Roach to 8 and Williams to 8. Banchero had a big game, but Manek did enough to bother a few shots when it mattered. Manek also helped pace the Heels in the second half. It wasn’t his best game of the tournament but his three 3’s were huge.
I said Carolina couldn’t win this game without making 8-10 3’s. They went 10-26. Again not the most impressive percentage, but it’s not god awful either. Most of those 3’s came in the second half.
Carolina’s guards were careless with the ball at times. There were some lazy passes on the wing that were stolen easily and converted into transition baskets on the other end, but it wasn’t a bad turnover night overall. Carolina had 10 turnovers for the game. I said they needed to have single digit turnovers… close enough.
Carolina needed to win the rebounding battle and Bacot came up huge in that regard. He had 21 rebounds and Carolina won that battle 50-41. The Heels also were able to get 22 second chance points off of offensive rebounds. Rebounding won Carolina this game.
Bacot went out with a little over 5 minutes to go when he rolled his ankle on Black’s foot. In his absence, Puff Johnson quietly held it down. Bacot was only gone for a little less than a minute of real game action. Johnson knocked down two free throws before subbing out when Bacot returned. Those free throws tied the game.
As for Bacot’s health, he went through practice today in a limited fashion, but the medical staff is encouraged by the lack of swelling overnight. Bacot said that he feels great. He will play tomorrow night.
Seth Greenberg said that Carolina’s experience would win this game down the stretch. Experience beats youthful talent in the tournament. One and done teams have not won very many championships. Carolina responded to Duke’s 7 point lead at the beginning of the second half with a 13-0 run of their own. Duke had a counter punch for everything Carolina did down the stretch but Carolina’s guys didn’t fold. They stayed composed. They trusted each other. HD trusts Love to take those types of shots. Love wants to take those types of shots and let’s be real, he has been pretty good in those situations. Thanks for wearing the blue J's again Caleb.
So watch all the celebration videos and the videos of the players hugging their families. Watch Kenny Smith’s reactions when he was watching the game. Look at all the pictures and watch the post game press conference. Buy that t-shirt. Read all the articles. Enjoy this because it was possibly a once in a lifetime game. I didn’t get to sleep till like 2am because it took me forever to wind down. I got my sister, who is in PA school, in West Virginia to drive to Delaware to watch the game. It was probably the first game all year that my now fiance watched with me. The stream kept buffering so he had to switch servers and we watched the last like 10 minutes hovered around my laptop because it was clear on there but not the TV. And all of that sounds kinda boring and other people have way better stories than me but that was the best I could do so far away from NC and it’s something I won’t forget. He also reminded me that Carolina is 2-0 against Duke since we got engaged, so thanks ricky! On to Kansas.
Kansas very easily took care of Villanova. Nova was without a key player as Justin Moore tore his achilles in their Elite 8 matchup against Houston. Nova just wasn’t able to slow down the Jayhawks and didn’t have enough scoring despite temporarily fighting back from an early double digit deficit.
Kansas has kinda quietly done what it has needed to do to reach the championship game. They grinded out wins over Creighton and Providence before blowing out Miami and Villanova. Each team’s road to the natty is before.
Carolina:
Beat #9 Marquette 95-63
Beat #1 Baylor 93-86 OT
Beat #4 UCLA 73-66
Beat #15 Saint Peters 69-49
Beat #2 Duke 81-77
Average seed: 6.2
Kansas:
Beat #16 Texas Southern 83-56
Beat #9 Creighton 79-72
Beat #4 Providence 66-61
Beat #10 Miami 76-50
Beat #2 Villanova 81-65
Average seed: 8.2
Carolina has had the harder road, but you play teams that are in front of you. Carolina has been in more close games than Kansas. But Kansas is experienced. They won the Big 12 regular season and tournament championship. Carolina may have the best starting five, but Kansas is arguably the most complete team.
Kansas can play 10 guys, but their main rotation is 7 with Coleman-Lands being the most likely 8th man. Martin is the biggest contributor off the bench. Lightfoot is the other. Adam and Yesufu have seen minutes but only really see minutes when the main rotational guys get into foul trouble. The rotation is below:
STARTERS:
J. Wilson F (SO 6-8)
D. McCormack F (SR 6-10)
D. Harris G (SO 6-1)
C. Braun G (JR 6-6)
O. Agbaji G (SR 6-5)
BENCH:
M Lightfoot F (SR 6-8)
R. Martin G (SR 6-0)
KJ Adams F (FR 6-7) (Didn’t play against Providence)
J. Yesufu G (SO 6-0) (Didn’t play against Providence)
J. Coleman-Lands (SR 6-4)
Lightfoot and Martin were the only players to see major minutes off the bench against Villanova. The other players listed under “bench” only got 1 minute. Martin played 21 minutes. Lightfoot played 9.
Agbaji started off the NCAA tournament a little slow but has picked it up the past 2 games (he had 18 against Miami, and 21 against Villanova). Martin has been the story off the bench (He had 20 against Creighton and 23 against Providence) He has cooled down a little bit in the past 2 games (9 against Miami. 3 against Villanova).
Agbaji is without a doubt their best player and Martin is without a doubt the biggest threat off the bench and is possibly the second biggest scoring threat. The scoring averages and shooting percentages are listed below as well as rebound averages for relevant players.
KANSAS:
Wilson: 11.4 PPG, 34.4% FG (20/58), 17.6% 3 PT (3/17), 10.8 RPG
McCormack: 12.8 PPG, 63.1% FG (24/38), 5.6 RPG
Harris: 7.4 PPG, 56% FG (14/25), 60% 3 PT (6/10)
Braun: 11 PPG, 45.4% FG (20/44), 47% 3 PT (8/17)
Agbaji: 14 PPG, 46.4% FG (26/56), 47.6% 3 PT (10/21)
Lightfoot: 3.2 PPG, 54.5% FG (6/11), 2.8 RPG
Martin: 14 PPG, 51% FG (25/49), 40% 3 PT (6/15)
Coleman-Lands: 2.8 PPG, 45.4% FG (5/11), 57.1% 3 PT (4/7)
CAROLINA:
Love: 20 PPG, 42.6% FG (35/82), 36% 3PT (18/50)
Davis: 14.6 PPG, 32.2% FG (20/62), 33.3% 3PT (9/27)
Manek: 20 PPG, 54.8% FG (34/62), 47.5% 3PT (19/40)
Bacot: 15.4 PPG, 46.5% FG (27/58), 16.8 RPG
Black: 4.6 PPG, 39.1% FG (9/23), 20% (2-8)
Johnson: 3.8 PPG, 66.6% FG (8/12), 33.3% 3PT (1/3)
Styles: 3.0 PPG, 50% FG (7/14), 16.6% 3PT (1/6)
Carolina’s scoring averages added up: 81.4. Kansas’ scoring averages added up: 76.6.
Note that Wilson is averaging a double double. He is a better rebounder than McCormack despite being smaller. His shooting percentages aren’t great for the tournament, but he may very well be the X factor for Kansas. He is a stretch forward, but not in the same sense as Manek. Wilson isn’t a great 3 point shooter but can beat you in a variety of ways. He is fast and can get to the basket. His matchup with Manek will be one to watch.
Kansas has been able to win games even when multiple players have off nights. Martin and Wilson were the only players in double figures in their win against Providence. Martin had 23. Wilson had 16.They also shot 39.3% from the floor and 14.3% from 3. Kansas has the ability to grind out bad games. This is a team that knows how to win.
If you took a look at the highlighted part of the team stats above then you noticed the 3 point shooting percentage for each is almost dead even. Carolina has to make 3s to win. Kansas doesn’t have to. I think Carolina still needs to make 8-10 3s. Carolina can’t afford to have a terrible shooting night, but a lights out night would be a huge bonus but isn’t necessarily needed. So let’s look at the individual shooting percentages of players (for the season and the team stats from the tournament).
3 POINT PERCENTAGES:
CAROLINA:
Love 36.8% (92-250)
Manek 40.1% (95-237)
Davis 37.7% (66-175)
Black 34% (17-50)
Johnson 21.7% (5-23)
Styles 16.7% (3-18)
Marquette (13-35)
Baylor (11-25)
UCLA (10-31)
Saint Peters (6-22)
Duke (10-26)
KANSAS:
O. Agbaji 41.1% (102-248)
J. Wilson 26.6% (29-109)
D. Harris 32.8% (20-61)
C. Braun 38.9% (51-131)
R. Martin 35.7% (25-70)
J. Coleman-Lands 44.8% (30-67)
Texas Southern (11-23)
Creighton (6-16)
Providence (2-14)
Miami (5-14)
Villanova (13-24)
Outside of Agbaji, no one on Kansas’ team is close to shooting the volume of 3’s that Love or Manek shoot. No one is really close to Davis either. Again that comes back to Carolina having to rely on the 3 and Kansas not needing to. Carolina has hit 10 or more 3’s in 4 out of their 5 tournament games. The lone game without hitting 10 3’s was against Saint Peter. Carolina had such a huge size advantage down low that they didn’t need to shoot it well from deep to win. Kansas has only made 10 or more 3’s in 2 of their 5 tournament games. The first time was against Texas Southern and then again last night against Villanova. Again take note of the number of attempts. Individually Kansas has 3 starters that you have to look out for: Agbaji, Braun and Harris. Harris’ season average isn’t great but he is shooting well for the tournament. He also has a lot less attempts than both Agbaji and Braun. Martin is also a threat from 3 off the bench. Wilson will shoot the 3 but he is not a good 3 point shooter.
I think another key to this game is free throw shooting. Both teams are good at drawing contact and have used the charity streak to their advantage during the tournament. The Heels and Jayhawks shoot a similar percentage from the line. Below is a breakdown of free throws for each team for each game during their respective tournament runs.
FREE THROWS:
CAROLINA:
Marquette (14-17)
Baylor (26-37)
UCLA (9-12)
Saint Peters (13-21)
Duke (17-24)
KANSAS:
Texas Southern (4-9)
Creighton (19-20)
Providence (20-28)
Miami (13-26)
Villanova (10-13)
Neither team has been consistently good for the tournament. I think this plays a factor in this game. Kansas can afford to play “hack a Bacot” a little bit so Bacot has to make his foul shots. Carolina can not afford any sort of foul trouble.
The story with Carolina is obviously the Iron five. HD decided on the guys he trusted and they have played big minutes and it’s a formula that has worked. Johnson has cemented himself as the first man off the bench. HD did use 8 guys against Duke though. The minutes for both teams are below:
CAROLINA:
Love leads the team in minutes at 34.1 minutes a game.
Davis is right there with 33.8 minutes a game.
Manek and Bacot are around 30-31 a game.
Black averages 29.4.
Johnson averages 10
Styles averages 5.8
Mckoy averages 7.1
KANSAS:
Agbaji leads the team in minutes with 35 minutes a game.
Braun isn’t far behind at 34.
Wilson and Harris both average 29.
McCormack and Martin average 21.
Lightfoot averages 12.
Yesufu and Coleman-Lands average 8-9.
Adams averages 4.
Carolina has 5 players that average 29 or more minutes. Kansas has 4. Again, Martin and Lightfoot were the only rotational players to see major minutes against Villanova. I honestly think we will see something similar tomorrow night. It’s Carolina’s 6 (starters plus Johnson) versus Kansas’ 7 (starters plus Lightfoot and Martin). Kansas can go deeper, but if they do it’s advantage Carolina because that means the Jayhawks have some key guys in foul trouble. Outside of Martin, No one on the bench is a real threat to score. Carolina’s “Iron Five” are just also used to playing major minutes anyway. It’s worked and every team the Heels have played has been “deeper.” I just don’t think depth is as big of an issue as it once was.
I would be absolutely shocked if Black doesn’t draw the assignment on Agbaji. He is without a doubt the best player for the Jayhawks. Black really is one of the better defenders in the country. Black is taller at 6-8 so his length has the potential to bother Agbaji. Bacot on McCormack is a given. That probably leaves Manek on Wilson. You really can’t risk Bacot getting in foul trouble and him twisting his ankle means you really don’t want him having to guard out on the perimeter that much. I think Davis gets Harris. It will thankfully be another matchup where Davis isn’t really undersized. Love checks Braun. Braun is a good shooter. Love needs to play him close.
I think overall the X factor matchup is Wilson vs Manek, but how much Black can shut down Agbaji can go a long way towards Carolina winning this game.
KEYS TO THE GAME:
Being Emotionally Prepared (Carolina is coming off a Final Four win against Duke, their biggest rivals. That game was emotionally draining. Carolina needs to be able to put that in the rear view mirror. How well they recover (for a lack of a better word) from that game will be big especially in the first couple of minutes. Both teams will have jitters, it’s the national championship game. Can Carolina put all those emotions behind them?)
Make 3’s (Common theme, I know. Kinda obvious, I know. Again 8-10 3s will give Carolina a good chance. HD has said this team relies on 3’s and the stats back that up. Carolina has to at least be average from behind the arc. A bad shooting day would mean serious trouble.)
Win the Rebounding Battle (It may not be as big of a stable as when Roy was coach, but rebounding is still something Carolina is very good at. It also allows for extra opportunities which proved to be huge against Duke. Carolina doesn’t win this game if they don’t win the rebounding battle.)
X Factors (For Carolina, that’s Brady Manek. For Kansas, Jalen Wilson. Both players have been instrumental in their team’s tournament runs. Manek needs to hit 3’s for Carolina to win and the Jayhawks need Wilson to rebound in order to keep Carolina off the boards.)
Win the Turnover Battle (Both teams can be turnover prone, at times. Both teams like to run. Kansas is one of the more efficient offenses in the country. Don’t give them extra opportunities. A sloppy game probably won’t cut it for either team because each team will make the other pay.)
Kansas is a tough matchup. There is a reason they have been a favorite for the natty all season, but there is also a reason Carolina has already taken down Baylor, UCLA and Duke. There is an element to this Carolina team that you can’t get from stats. I went from thinking this team was going to find a way to lose at the beginning of the season to believing that this team is going to find a way to win in the NCAA tournament. Whether it was beating Baylor with 2 bench players in OT or Love switching shoes and exploding for 27 points in the second half against UCLA to Love hitting a 3 over the ACC defensive player of the year with less than 30 second lefts in the game against Duke, this team has been special in the tournament. It’s two blue bloods going at it for the National Championship. 9 titles between them. Roy’s two former teams battling it out after his most recent team ended Coach K’s farewell tour. Roy Williams gets the last laugh on the ultimate farewell tour.
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