GAME INFO:
March 27, 2022
5:05pmTip Off
Wells Fargo Center (Capacity: 20,155)
Philadelphia, PA
TV: CBS
UNC is given a 79.7% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
#8 UNC: 27-9 (15-5 in ACC)
#15 Saint Peters: 22-11 (14-6 in MAAC)
Last Time Out:
#8 UNC: Beat UCLA 73-66 to advance to the Elite 8
#15 Saint Peters: Beat Purdue 67-64 to advance to the Elite 8
SERIES INFO:
This will be the first meeting between the two programs.
If you want even more stats check this link out: https://goheels.com/news/2022/3/26/mens-basketball-tar-heels-to-meet-saint-peters-for-21st-final-four-trip.aspx
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (16.4 PPG)
Saint Peters: D. Banks III (11.5 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (12.6)
Saint Peters: F. Drame (6.4)
Assists:
UNC: Davis (3.7)
Saint Peters: M Lee (3.0)
UCLA Notes:
Caleb Love had 30 points on 11-24 shooting, 6-13 from 3, 2-2 FT, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 TO
Armando Bacot had 14 points on 6-10 shooting, 2-4 FT, 15 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 TOs, 1 block
Brady Manek had 13 points on 5-13 shooting, 3-10 from 3, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 TOs, 1 steal
RJ Davis had 12 points on 3-11 shooting, 1-4 from 3, 5-5 FT, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 TOs
Leaky Black had 2 points on 1-5 shooting, 2 rebounds, 1 TO, 1 steal
Puff Johnson had 2 points on 1-2 shooting, 2 rebounds
TEAM STATS:
40.9% FG (27-66)
32.3% 3 PT (10-31)
75% FT (9-12)
43 rebounds
11 assists
8 TOs
1 block
2 steals
19 second chance points
27 of Love’s 30 points came in the second half
Carolina did just enough to get by UCLA Friday night in the city of brotherly Love. All the puns intended by the way because that win doesn’t happen without Caleb Love. 27 of his 30 points came in the second half including some big 3’s down the stretch. It all got started when he drove to the basket on the first offensive set of the second half. Love is better when he is going to the basket. Love hit 6 of the team’s 10 3’s. The Heels have hit at least 10 3’s in every tournament game so far.
But to back up a little bit, UCLA hit some tough shots in the first half. Carolina looked somewhat out of sync on offense and it looked like Juzang and Jaquez were each going to have big nights. Carolina made some excellent adjustments at the half and Jaquez finished with 10 points on 5-18 shooting including 0-3 from 3. Juzang finished with 14 points on 5-13 shooting including 2-4 from 3. That is probably the most success Leaky Black’s man has had all year. Black also spent some time guarding Jaquez and that switch was clearly effective.
Bernard and Campbell were both efficient. Bernard finished with 16 points on 7-11 shooting including 2-5 from 3. Campbell finished with 15 points on 6-9 shooting. The key was that Carolina didn’t let any one of those guys have a big game. Davis, Manek and Bacot matched UCLA’s scorers. Love went for 30 and that was the difference. The game was a stark contrast to the first two games. Carolina didn’t dominate for really any period of the game. It just felt like the Heels hung around until the end when they were able to win it with several key plays.
Caleb’s 3 that tied the game with under 2 minutes to go doesn’t happen without Bacot hustling after a loose ball then jumping out of bounds to save it. Bacot had a relatively quiet double double up until that moment. It appeared as though he was dealing with some sort of lower back discomfort. He also had the tip in to put Carolina up 5 off an RJ Davis’ miss with less than 20 seconds to go. Big time players make big time plays. Love willed the team in the second half but the game may have a different outcome without those 2 plays by Bacot.
Don’t overlook the play of Puff Johnson either. His stat sheet will not jump out at you (see above), but he did exactly what he needed to do. Davis subbed Manek out with UCLA up 5 about midway through the second half. Manek was visibly frustrated with himself. Puff Johnson came in for him and allowed Manek to regain his composure on the bench. Manek then came back in and hit a big 3 later in the game. Davis put a lot of trust in both Johnson and Manek and they both did exactly what they needed to do. Johnson’s 10 minutes were quiet but big.
So here we are. Carolina meets the Cinderella story of the tournament at around 5pm on Sunday with a shot at the Final Four on the line. Raise your hand if you predicted Carolina vs Saint Peters for the East regional final. Now put your hand down because if it’s up then you are definitely lying. This will be the highest combined seed matchup in Elite 8 history. How did we get here? I think everyone knows how both teams got here, but to recap the previous tournament games and scores are below:
CAROLINA:
Beat #8 Marquette 95-63
Beat #1 Baylor 93-86 in OT (Defending champs)
Beat #4 UCLA 73-66 (Final Four team in 2020-2021
SAINT PETERS:
Beat #2 Kentucky 85-79 in OT
Beat #7 Murray State 70-60
Beat #3 Purdue 67-64
Carolina has knocked off last year’s champions in Baylor and defeated another Final Four team from last year in UCLA. Saint Peters has beaten Kentucky and Purdue who were both popular picks to make it to the Final Four and to win the national championship.
This game preview will be a little different than others. I decided to focus on the Peacock’s performance in the tournament instead of the whole season. The team stats and player stats are all season stats, but the best way to assess Saint Peters is to look at their tournament play. HD has been adamant that seeding doesn’t matter and Saint Peters has proven that it doesn’t. Relevant stats for each of the Peacocks’ games are below. This preview will be number heavy, but it’s the best way to break down the Peacocks.
KENTUCKY GAME:
Daryl Banks III had 27 points on 9-19 shooting, 5-8 from 3, 4-4 FT
Doug Edert had 20 points on 5-7 shooting, 2-2 from 3, 8-8 FT
Shot over 50% from the field and from 3
18-21 FT
9-10 players that played scored
Lost the rebounding battle 35-36
Had 15 turnover to Kentucky’s 13
Lost the second chance points battle 14-15
Held Kentucky to 42.6% from the field and 26.7% from 3
Oscar Tshiebwe had 30 points on 11-16 shooting and 16 rebounds
MURRAY STATE GAME:
KC Ndefo had 17 points on 5-10 shooting, 7-9 FT, 10 rebounds
Doug Edert had 13 points on 4-6 shooting, 1-2 from 3, 4-6 FT
Shot 41.5% from the field, and 23.1% from 3
23-31 FT
9 of 10 players that played scored
Won the rebounding battle 38-31
Held Murray State to 34.6% from the field and 33.3% from 3
Murray State had 4 guys in double figures (Hill 19, Brown 14, Williams 12, Hannibal 10)
Won the turnover battle 10-12
PURDUE GAME:
Daryl Banks III had 14 points on 6-14 shooting, 0-4 from 3, 2-2 FT
Clarence Rupert had 11 points on 5-8 shooting, 1-2 from 3
Doug Edert had 10 points on 1-6 shooting, 1-3 from 3, 7-8 FT
Shot 38.9% from the field and 28.6% from 3
19-21 FT
9 of 10 players that played scored
Outrebounded 26-37
Purdue had 14 second chance points
Purde shot 42.6% from the field and 23.8% from 3
Purdue had 15 turnovers, Saint Peter’s had 8
Jaden Ivey had 9 points on 4-12 shooting, 1-6 from 3, 6 TOs
Caleb Furst was held to 2 points
Zach Edey had 11 points on 5-7 shooting, 5 TOs
Trevion Williams had 16 points on 7-15 shooting, 8 rebounds
SUMMARY:
The Peacocks were outrebounded in 2 out of 3 games but still won.
They shot over 20 free throws in each game
Opposing post players have had relative success against them
9 out of 10 players that played scored in every game
Outside of the Kentucky game, they have not shot the ball well
Opposing teams have not shot better than 33.3% from 3 against them in the tournament
Have forced double digit turnovers in every game.
Purdue was the only game where the Peacocks had single digit turnovers
Obviously the summary sums it all up best (that’s why it’s a summary I know). But the Peacocks play their brand of basketball no matter what. They have been at a significant size disadvantage against Kentucky and Purdue, and while opposing bigs had relatively good games, the Peacocks still won. They play defense, they force turnovers, and they play physical. They will throw 10 guys at you and will sub out 5 guys at a time.
Of those 10 guys, Banks and Edert have had the best tournament. Ndefo put up 17 against Murray State. This is all fitting considering Banks and Ndefo are the only players averaging double figures for the Peacocks and Edert is close (9.8 PPG). Carolina will see all 10 guys listed below:
STARTERS
C. Rupert F (FR 6-8)
H. Drame F (JR 6-7)
K. Ndefo F (SR 6-7)
M. Lee G (JR 6-0)
D. Banks III G (JR 6-3)
BENCH:
O. Diahame F (SO 6-10)
F. Drame F (JR 6-7)
I Dasher G (SR 6-4)
J. Murray G (FR 5-11)
D. Edert G (JR 6-2)
Saint Peters is “guard heavy”, but they start 3 forwards. Notice that Edert comes off the bench. Saint Peters runs a lot of motion and screens around the perimeter. Their forwards aren’t back to the basket players like Bacot. They will force you to defend. They haven’t shot the ball well from the field or from 3, but they have made up for it by getting to the free throw line. Saint Peters has shot over 20 free throws in all their tournament games so far. They play with no fear. The Peacocks have a ton of guys to throw at Carolina. Carolina doesn’t have a ton of guys to throw at the Peacocks. Carolina has to be smart on defense since Saint Peters seeks out contact/fouls.
I don’t think the lack of depth will hurt Carolina if everyone stays out of foul trouble. The starters are used to playing a lot of minutes. They have been in 2 games against Baylor and UCLA. The adversity in the Baylor game definitely helped down the stretch against UCLA. Like RJ said, “there is no time to be tired.” Saint Peter’s doesn’t have a guy that averages over 30 minutes a game. Banks III leads the team in minutes at 26.5 minutes a game. Ndefo, Lee, Edert and the Drame brothers all average between 26-20 minutes a game. Dasher, Murray, and Rupert all average over 10 minutes a game. Diahame averages 9.5 minutes a game.
Pay attention to the fact that their tallest player (Diahame) plays the least amount of everyone in the rotation. Oscar Tshiebwe had a big night going for 30 points. Bacot has a real opportunity to have a similar night. Purdue’s post players were as efficient as Tshiebwe but put up less points and less attempts. Edey went 5-7 for 11 points but had 5 TOs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Saint Peter’s trap Bacot. Again they want to be as physical as possible. They aren’t worried about fouls because they have a deep rotation. Bacot has to be strong with the ball and know when to kick the ball out. He also needs to convert on free throws as he may get to the line a fair amount depending on how physical the refs let the guys be. This also means guys like Manek, Love and Davis need to make shots. 10 3’s still looks like a good number to aim for even though the game against UCLA was more of a high volume 3 pointer shooting game than an efficient one.
The peacocks haven’t had the same success from behind the arc as the Heels. They shot over 50% against Kentucky but have shot under 30% from behind the arc against both Murray State and Purdue. Obviously they still won despite that. Why? Because they keep coming at you. Edert and Banks are their volume 3 point shooters and shoot the best percentage wise. Everyone else has nearly half the attempts with the exception of Lee. The percentages are below:
3 POINT PERCENTAGES
Banks 36.8% (53-144)
Ndefo 28.6% (6-21)
Edert 42.2% (46-109)
Lee 34.6% (28-81)
F. Drame 35.5% (11-31)
H. Drame 34.8% (8-23)
Murray 31.7% (19-60)
Dasher 31.5% (17-54)
Rupert 22.2% (2-9)
The Peacock forwards have shot 3’s, but not at a high volume. This has been a problem for Carolina bigs in the past, but won’t be a giant worry in this game. Not having to guard out on the perimeter should help Manek and Bacot stay out of foul trouble. It allows them to play off their man a little bit to account for the drive.
This will be a game between 2 teams that have shown a great amount of toughness. It’s literally Saint Peter’s game. Their game isn’t really pretty. They want to “muck” up the game as much a as possible to use the term coined by whoever was calling the Gonzaga vs. Arkansas game. This isn’t dissimilar to Arkansas if anyone has seen them play. They seek out contact on offense in order to get to the free throw line and they body up on the defensive end to break their opponents. It’s a frustrating style of play if a team isn’t prepared for it. Just ask Purdue who has been roasted for having a bad game plan.
Marquette wanted to be physical. That didn’t work. Baylor was very physical in the last 10 minutes and OT. Carolina regrouped in order to win in OT. UCLA wasn’t overly physical, but they were a sound defensive team. It’s a style of play Carolina should be ready for.
Carolina should also be ready for Saint Peters to press. They turn teams over and rely on steals. They forced double digit turnovers in every NCAA tournament game so far. They will full court press and trap. Carolina’s struggles against the press were well documented against Baylor. Love was not on the floor for half of those struggles which contributed. This is why it’s important for Davis and Love to stay out of foul trouble. Carolina needs both ball handlers on the floor. If a team effectively breaks a full court then that can lead to some easy baskets. The best way to beat a press is to get a guy in the middle of the floor. Look for Manek or Bacot to flash to the top of the key area to help with the inbounds and possible traps on the sidelines. Both are also good passers. If Carolina can continuously beat the full court press then that will go a long way towards winning the game.
With that comes limiting turnovers. Turning the ball over in the backcourt on a press leads to easy baskets. Saint Peters thrives on turnovers. Carolina only had 8 against UCLA. Another single digit turnover game would make life easy. That means the guards need to make smart decisions and the bigs need to be strong. Bacot can not get caught in or surprised by double teams. Entry passes need to be good passes. They can’t be at the feet of Bacot with several hands and arms sweeping at the ball. Entry passes need to be crisp.
Carolina needs to get out in transition. The Heels did enough to beat UCLA in the halfcourt, but are still at their best when they can get out and run. Some people may ask “Well why is that a good idea? The Peacocks have a deep rotation that isn’t going to tire them out.” It’s not about tiring the opposing team out. By getting out in transition, the defense doesn’t have time to set up their defense and they certainly don’t have time to press or trap. It also allows for easier put back opportunities with the bigs running the floor or secondary break opportunities for the same reasons.
The matchups are pretty straight forward for the most part. Bacot and Manek will guard Rupert and H. Drame. My guess is Bacot guards Rupert and Manek guards H. Drame. Davis guards Lee. The question is who you put on Banks whether it's Black or Love. If Black guards him then Love is at a size disadvantage on Ndefo who is one of their best scorers. If Love guards Banks then it’s a more even size matchup. I think Banks has been too big for this team for Black to not start out on him. If Ndefo takes advantage of Love a lot then you switch but I think you start Black on their best player. Black also probably gets Edert when he is in the game unless Banks and Edert are on the floor at the same time. In that case I would keep Black on Banks. Love or Davis should physically be able to keep up with Edert.
Saint Peters doesn’t do anything flashy. Carolina needs to control the pace of the game and impose their will on offense. Love, Davis, Manek or Bacot can all go off on any given night. It’s been seen already in the tournament. It would be really nice to get all of them on the same page on the same night. If that happens, the Heels will be headed to the Final Four without question. But they better be ready for a dog fight because that is exactly what Saint Peters is going to bring.
KEYS TO THE GAME:
Limit Turnovers (Saint Peters thrives on turning teams over. It goes with their style of play. They want an ugly game. Carolina can’t give it to them. Being smart and strong with the basketball will disrupt what Saint Peters wants to do.)
Handle the Physicality (Again Saint Peters wants an ugly game. They are not afraid of contact on either end of the floor. Foul trouble also most likely won’t be a problem for them since they rotate 10 guys. The Peacocks won’t stop coming at you. The Heels have to stay mentally strong and that includes staying out of foul trouble themselves.)
10 3s (That has been the magic number so far this tournament. Carolina has made at least 10 3’s in every game. The UCLA game got a little 3 heavy in the final minutes for my taste. You live or die by the 3. Against UCLA, we lived. That was also without Manek having an overly good game. It’s not unreasonable to think Davis, Manek and Love can all knock down 3 3’s in a game. And simply put, Carolina has to make shots in a game where Saint Peters will want to limit possessions.)
Dominate the Post/Boards (Purdue dominated the glass, but had a bad game plan. I trust Carolina’s coaching staff will have a better one. It needs to include feeding Bacot. A lot. Bacot needs to be strong and smart when he gets it since he will probably encounter double teams. There will also be lots of chances for offensive rebounds against a smaller team. Carolina needs to do what it does best.)
Don’t Look Past the Peacocks (Sounds simple right, but Kentucky, Murray State, and Purdue all fell victim to this. I really think Purdue’s bad game plan had a lot to do with the fact that they thought their size would be too much for Saint Peters. The fan base has already started to look ahead to a potential Final Four matchup with Duke. Well the Peacocks won’t be an easy out. HD and the coaching staff need to have these guys locked into the task at hand. Cinderella has to go home, so let’s be the one to send them there.)
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