GAME INFO:
March 19, 2022
12:10pm Tip Off
Dickies Arena (Capacity: 13,300)
Fort Worth, TX
TV: CBS
UNC is given a 19.5% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
#8 UNC: 25-9 (15-5 in ACC)
#1 Baylor: 27-6 (14-4 in Big 12)
Last Time Out:
#8 UNC: Beat Marquette 95-63 in the first round
#1 Baylor: Beat Norfolk State 85-49 in the first round
SERIES INFO:
This is the first ever meeting between the Tar Heels and Bears.
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (16.5 PPG)
Baylor: A. Flagler (13.3 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (12.4)
Baylor: J. Tchamwa Tchatchoua (6.8) (OUT FOR SEASON)
Assists:
UNC: Love (3.7)
Baylor: J. Akinjo (5.8)
Marquette Notes:
Brady Manek had 28 points on 10-15 shooting, 5-10 from 3, 3-3 FT, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 TOs, 2 blocks
Caleb Love had 23 points on 6-15 shooting, 6-13 from 3, 5-7 FT, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 TOs
Armando Bacot had 17 points on 6-13 shooting, 5-5 FT, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 TO, 1 block, 1 steal
Leaky Black had 4 points on 2-4 shooting, 7 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 TOs, 2 steals
RJ Davis had 4 points on 1-10 shooting, 1-5 from 3, 1-2 FT, 4 rebounds, 12 assists, 1 TO
Puff Johnson had 11 points on 5-7 shooting, 1-2 from 3, 3 rebounds, 1 block
Dontrez Styles had 6 points on 3-3 shooting, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 TOs
45.9% FG (34-74)
37.1% 3 PT (13-35)
82.4% FT (14-17)
52 rebounds
29 assists
10 TOs
4 blocks
4 steals
23 second chance points
17 fast break points
19 bench points
Carolina played just about as good as you could play in an opening round NCAA tournament game. It was the largest 8 vs 9 win in NCAA tournament history. The Heels hit 13 3’s which is the most 3’s in a tournament game in the program’s history. Bacot became the single season rebound record holder, and RJ’s 12 assists were second most in a tournament game to only Kendall Marshall’s 14. 29 of Carolina’s 34 basketballs were assisted on which is the highest percentage of assisted field goals in the program’s NCAA tournament history. And Hubert Davis got his first NCAA tournament win as head coach.
HD and the rest of the coaching staff knew Marquette’s main game plan was to be really physical. It had worked for Smart’s team in the past, but obviously it didn’t work this time. The best way to sum up the Marquette game is to go back and look at some of the keys and important factors. They are listed below.
KEYS TO MARQUETTE GAME:
3 Point Defense
Marquette shot 25.8% from 3 going 8-31.
Handling Physicality
Carolina has struggled handling physical teams throughout the year. Hubert Davis knew that Marquette would purely try to out-physical the Heels. It didn’t work. The game got very chirpy resulting in several technical fouls on Marquette. Carolina held their composure. Marquette wanted to be physical with Love and all he did was drop 6 first half 3 pointers. Davis dished out 12 assists to 6 different teammates. The Carolina guards obviously responded to Marquette’s physicality well.
Put the ball in RJ’s Hands/Love’s Shot Selection
Carolina runs better with the ball in RJ Davis’ hands. Again he had 12 assists on a night where he didn’t shoot the ball well but he managed the game perfectly. Those assists went to 6 different Tar Heels. 3 went to Manek and 7 were in the second half. Carolina assisted on 29 of their 34 made field goals. I don’t know if Love’s shot selection was incredibly better, he just made his shots. A confident Love who is hitting his shots is dangerous. He lives for making plays down the stretch, the NCAA tournament is “the stretch” of the season.
Dominate the Boards
This wasn’t even close. Carolina outrebounded Marquette 52-37 with 15 offensive rebounds. Those offensive rebounds were turned into 23 second chance points. Bacot and Manek both recorded double doubles and Bacot became the single season rebound record holder for Carolina.
Black-Lewis Matchup
I was confident about this matchup and Black didn’t disappoint. He held Justin Lewis to 6 points on 2-15 shooting in 26 minutes. Black also dished out 8 assists and grabbed 7 rebounds. Black’s defense on Lewis greatly affected what Marquette could do offensively.
Brady Manek
Just another Manek Thursday. Manek has been in the NCAA tournament before and this time he delivered big time. He had 28 points on 10-15 shooting including 5-10 from 3 and put together 2 really good halves of basketball. Love may be the X factor but Manek has to shoot well for this Carolina team to continue to advance.
Carolina checked all the boxes against Marquette. Similar boxes will have to be checked in order to upset #1 seed Baylor.
Baylor did what they needed to do in their #16 v #1 matchup. They took care of Norfolk State 85-49. Thamba, Flagler, Akinjo, Mayer and Sochan were all in double figures. Mayer led the way with 22 points on 8-12 shooting including 4-7 from 3. Baylor made 11 3’s and shot it 40.7% from behind the arc. They shot 57.4% from the field. They racked up 24 assists on 31 made baskets and committed 10 turnovers. They turned 13 offensive rebounds into 19 points and 15 Norfolk turnovers into 21 points including 17 in transition.
Check out our stats against Marquette. They aren’t dissimilar.
Baylor is the most beatable #1 seed and this is mainly because they are without 2 key players. They are without one of their starting guards in LJ Cryer. He leads the Bears in scoring and is their best 3 point shooter. Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua is also out after having season ending knee surgery. He is their leading rebounder. He didn’t start, but was averaging 20.8 minutes off the bench.
With that being said, they have been without these guys since mid February and have gone 6-2 in that stretch. Their 2 losses are a regular season loss to Texas Tech and a loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament. They have 2 wins over Texas and a win over Kansas in that same span. Other notable games (full season) are listed below including a 57-37 win over Villanova.
SCHEDULE NOTES:
75-58 win over Michigan State
57-36 win over Villanova
Lost to Texas Tech twice (62-65, 73-83)
54-61 loss to Ok St.
78-87 loss to Alabama
59-83 loss to Kansas, 80-70 win over Kansas
Beat Texas twice (80-63, 68-61)
Lost to Oklahoma 67-72
So it’s not like the Bears haven’t been winning without those 2 key guys but their rotation is shorter. They now have a main rotation of 7 players. Obviously a few more guys got to play in the blowout win over Norfolk State, but the guys listed below are the guys that will see all the minutes in a competitive game.
STARTERS:
F. Thamba F (SR 6-10) (8)
K. Brown G (FR 6-8) (19)
J. Akinjo G (SR 6-1) (22)
M. Mayer G (SR 6-9) (16)
BENCH:
J. Sochan F (FR 6-9) (13)
D. Bonner G (JR 6-2)
This team is led by their guards, specifically upperclassmen Flagler and Akinjo. Cryer led the team in scoring at 13.5, but both Flagler and Akinjo are right behind him at 13.3 points a game. Akinjo leads the team in assists, steals and turnovers. His assists to turnover ratio is around 2:1. He will handle most of the ball handling duties, but is still a huge threat to score. He is second on the team in double figure games. Again that number is to the right of the player’s year and height. Akinjo’s counterpart, Flagler, leads the team in that category with 24. Mayer is listed as a guard but is basically Baylor’s Brady Manek. So matchup wise, Carolina isn’t in bad shape. Off the bench, Sochan provides a 6th scorer for the Bears.
Not that minutes are really a factor here, Baylor will play the guys listed and Carolina’s rotation is 6-8 (starters plus possibly Johnson, Styles, Mckoy, or Walton). Lack of depth won’t really be a weakness for Carolina since both team’s have short rotations but the minutes are listed below.
MINUTES:
James Akinjo leads the team in minutes at 32.8 minutes a game.
Flagler is the other player that averages over 30 at 30.4.
Brown, Mayer, Sochan, and Thamba average over 20 minutes.
Bonner averages 16.9.
As mentioned above Baylor is a guard heavy team. They start 4 guards and one forward. All 4 guards in the starting rotation are a threat to shoot it from deep. The Bears are led by Flagler and Brown in terms of 3 point percentages. The rest of the percentages are listed below.
3 POINT PERCENTAGES:
Akinjo 30.3% (40-132)
Flagler 39.3% (72-183)
Brown 37.8% (14-37)
Mayer 32.1% (42-131)
Sochan 30.3% (23-76)
Bonner 17% (8-47)
Sochan is also worth mentioning. He is a forward, but has 76 attempts on the year. Bacot or Manek will have to have that in the back of their minds.
The matchups for Carolina’s forwards are pretty straight forward. Bacot will get Thamba and Manek will get Mayer. The Manek/Mayer matchup should be a good one. Manek won’t be as big of a defensive liability with this matchup. You also have 2 fairly good shooters going against each other. Manek’s numbers are better, but Mayer can get hot in a hurry. If the Virginia Tech game showed anything it’s that Manek has to shoot the ball well to give Carolina a chance to win. Both Manek and Bacot need to win their matchups.
Now the guard matchups are worth taking a deep dive into. You have Love, Davis and Black to match up against Akinjo, Flagler and Brown. The offense runs through Akinjo. HD put black on Clark in the UVA game and it completely changed what UVA was able to do offensively. They really weren’t able to get into their sets. But Flagler and Brown are both good 3 point shooters and I don’t think you can afford to have Davis matched up against either of those guys because it would be a huge size disadvantage for Davis. Flagler and Brown would easily be able to shoot over him. So I think Davis guards Akinjo to start out with. That leaves Love and Black to guard Flagler and Brown. Flagler is the Bear’s best scorer and he has the highest 3 point percentage. I know this would leave Love giving up size to Brown, but I think you start Black on Flagler. Brown is 6’8” and Love is 6’4”, but Brown is listed at 205. Love is listed at 195. It’s a matchup Love can handle. I could also see Black on Brown and Love on Flagler. I think it depends on who is hot throughout the game. It’s still going to take solid defensive efforts from all 3 Carolina guards in order for the Heels to have a chance at the upset.
Sochan is a real sleeper here. He has put up some big numbers off the bench and is quicker than both Bacot and Manek. If he enters the game with Thamba then Manek probably guards him. If he is the only forward in the game then Bacot guards him, but that would mean the Bears would have 5 players who are capable of shooting it from deep in the game at one time. That poses a problem for Carolina and means Bacot needs to guard without fouling.
So what is the recipe for an upset? Well Baylor guards the 3, gets steals, convert those steals into points, and gets out in transition. Obviously steals, points off turnovers, and fast break points are all related. The numbers are highlighted in the team table at the top of this preview.
Carolina needs to take care of the ball and slow the Bears down. Again those two things go together. Carolina’s break and secondary break has gotten better as the season has gone on. They shouldn’t purposefully slow their pace down as long as they can play under control at a faster pace. Turnovers from trying to play too fast will be an upset killer.
So how does Carolina accomplish this? Just like in the Marquette game, the ball needs to be in RJ Davis’ hands. He didn’t shoot the ball well and the Heels need a bigger scoring night from him against Baylor, but he was outstanding when it came to distributing the basketball against Marquette. Davis needs to run the point. That means Love is off the ball. Love only had 1 assist against Marquette, but he didn’t turn the ball over a lot. He only had 2 turnovers. Again Carolina needs Love to be smart with the basketball in this game. He also needs to continue to make shots.
Which leads me to my next thing, shot selection. Bad shots usually lead to long rebounds and long rebounds lead to run out opportunities for the opposing team. There isn’t a shot that Love doesn’t like. He had a lot of good open opportunities against Marquette. 3’s are good when they are in the flow of the offense and are the result of a good set. 3’s are not good when you just pass it around the perimeter a few times, take a few dribbles and then jack up a shot with a defender in your face. Carolina needs to run their sets and take what the defense gives them. Don’t force things. Baylor scores 24% of their points off turnovers.
Baylor is another team that has physical guards. Their guards will push opposing guards out and try to make them operate outside the arc. Carolina again has to handle the physicality and not allow themselves to be taken out of the game mentally. HD preached coming ready for a fight against Marquette and he will get another fight from the Bears. Again run your sets. Carolina is better when Davis is playing downhill. Get in the lane.
Baylor is a team that has been there. They are the defending national championships. Yes, they obviously had some key players depart, but the majority of their rotation were on the team that won it all last year. Scott Drew is also obviously a phenomenal coach. Baylor knows what it takes to be successful in this tournament. Carolina has to stay locked in for 40 minutes.
Baylor has 3 available players who played every game in the 2021 NCAA Tournament – Adam Flagler (10.7 ppg in 23.2 mpg), Matthew Mayer (8.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg in 18.9 mpg) and Flo Thamba (4.0 ppg in 16.9 mpg).
This last part sounds obvious but Carolina has to make some shots. Baylor defends the 3 well and this team has come to live and die by it. We have to find a way to shoot it around 40% from deep to have a chance to win.
Play hard for 40 minutes and see what happens!
KEYS TO THE GAME
Limit Turnovers (Baylor thrives off turnovers. You win games by having more points than the other team. Limit how Baylor gets almost a quarter of their points and you give yourself a better chance to win said game.)
The 3 Point Line (Carolina has to defend it, but they also need to make some shots. Love and Manek need to stay hot. Davis needs a better shooting day than the one he had against Marquette.)
Win Rebounding Battle (This hasn’t been mentioned yet, but Baylor is not a bad rebounding team for their size. They also do a good job of converting offensive rebounds into points. Don’t give them extra opportunities and try to steal some points of our own on the offensive glass.)
Guard Play (Guard play decides who wins and loses games in March. Davis and Love will be going up against one of the better duos in the country. Love and Davis both need to play well in all facets of the game. The Bear guards have been here before though. It will be a tall task, but Love and Davis at least need to play Flagler and Akinjo even.)
Fight (Again this seems obvious, but Carolina needs to fight for a full 40 minutes. They did it against Duke and Marquette. We all know it’s possible. It just depends on which Carolina team shows up. This will essentially be a home game for Baylor only being a little around an hour from Waco. Carolina needs to be mentally engaged and tough for the entirety of the game.)
Hey Baylor UNC is not in Norfolk, Va.
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