GAME INFO:
March 5, 2022
6:00pm Tip Off
Cameron Indoor Stadium (Capacity: 9,314)
Durham, NC
TV: ESPN
UNC is given a 12.2% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
UNC: 22-8 (14-5 in ACC)
#4 Duke: 26-4 (16-3 in ACC)
Last Time Out:
UNC: Beat Syracuse 88-79 OT
#4 Duke: Won at Pitt 86-56
SERIES INFO:
• Carolina is 141-115 against the Blue Devils.
• Carolina is 49-55 against Duke in Durham, including 38-46 at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
• UNC beat the Blue Devils, 91-87, in Durham a year ago behind 25 points and seven assists by Caleb Love, 16 points from Armando Bacot and 12 apiece from Leaky Black and Kerwin Walton. The Tar Heels shot 53.1% from the floor and made 10 of 15 (.667) three-pointers.
• The Tar Heels are 48-50 against Mike Krzyzewski's Duke teams, including 19-22 at Cameron.
• Carolina and Duke have won 39 of the ACC's 67 Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament championships, including 21 by Duke and 18 by UNC.
• Carolina and Duke are No. 1 and 2 all-time in the ACC in wins, ACC regular-season wins, ACC Tournament wins and NCAA Tournament wins.
• Carolina has won the ACC regular-season title 32 times. The Blue Devils are second with 20.
• Either Carolina or Duke have played in the NCAA Final Four 25 times in the last 41 seasons.
• The Tar Heels and Blue Devils have won 10 national championships in the last 41 seasons – five by Carolina and five by Duke.
• Carolina has played in an NCAA-record 20 Final Fours. Duke has played in 16.
• Hubert Davis was 6-5 as a player against the Blue Devils, including 2-2 at Cameron.
• The teams have three sets of high school teammates. UNC's Leaky Black played as a senior at Cox Mill High School in Concord, N.C., with Duke's Wendell Moore; UNC's RJ Davis and Duke's AJ Griffin played at Archbishop Stepanic in White Plains, N.Y.; and Anthony Harris (UNC), Trevor Keels and Jeremy Roach (Duke) were teammates at St. Paul VI in Fairfax, Va.
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (16.4 PPG)
#4 Duke: P. Banchero (16.9 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (12.7)
#4 Duke: P. Banchero (7.8)
Assists:
UNC: Love (3.7)
#4 Duke: W. Moore Jr. (4.6)
Syracuse Notes
Brady Manek had 22 points on 9-18 shooting, 3-6 from 3, 5 rebounds, 3 assists
Caleb Love had 21 points on 6-19 shooting, 4-12 from 3, 5-5 FT, 6 rebounds, 3 assists
Armando Bacot had 17 points on 5-12 shooting, 7-9 FT, 18 rebounds, 2 assists
RJ Davis had 17 points on 6-13 shooting, 5-11 from 3, 2 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 TOs, 1 steal
Leaky Black had 8 points on 2-6 shooting, 2-5 from 3, 2-2 FT, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 TOs, 3 blocks, 1 steal
Puff Johnson had 3 points on 1-3 shooting, 1-2 FT, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal
TEAM STATS
40.8% FG (29-71)
38.9% 3PT (14-36)
80% FT (16-20)
44 rebounds
21 assists
8 turnovers
3 blocks
3 steals
18 second chance points
Bacot picked up his 23rd double-double of the season
14 of Love’s 21 points came in the final 4 minutes of regulation and OT
Leaky Black joined Danny Green as the only 2 Tar Heels with 400 rebounds, 250 assists, 100 steals, and 50 blocks in their UNC careers
Clinched double bye in ACC tournament
Carolina escaped Syracuse on Monday night to wrap up a double bye in the ACC tournament. The Heels are 10-2 since losing back to back games against Miami and Wake Forest and I'm sure they would love to get that Pitt game back.
Manek showed out on senior night. In his lone year at Carolina, he has probably been the most consistent offensive threat and undoubtedly has the highest basketball IQ of anyone on the team. His points total speaks for itself but he did a lot of Monday night that isn’t on the stat sheet per say. Manek was tasked with being in the middle of the Orange’s zone and he scored in every way possible. He scored from beyond the arc, hit shots from the middle of the zone, and had layups/dunks off cuts. Manek just makes passes and cuts that no one else on the team makes. There was one play that ended up in an RJ 3 pointer that really showed this off. Manek got the ball in the middle of the zone. He passed it to the corner to Black. Manek then pointed to RJ on the wing. Black passed it to RJ and he knocked down the shot. It’s not a coincidence Manek has been involved in the more pretty plays this season. I wish Carolina had him for more than one year.
For good or for bad, Caleb Love is involved in critical plays down the stretch. Love had 21 points on the night but didn’t really show up on offense until late in regulation. Love had 2 3’s in the final 3 minutes of regulation including the shot that put Carolina ahead with 7 seconds left before Girard countered sending it to OT. He had a 3 in OT and then got fouled on a drive. He made the bucket and the free throw. Then add the other free throws he hit down the stretch. That means at least 14 of Love’s 21 points came in the final 3 minutes of regulation and OT.
In the words of Armando Bacot: “That was kinda gangster. I’m not gonna lie.”
Love wants the ball in big moments. Sometimes he tries for the big play too much. I honestly doubt that was the play HD drew up, but the shot went in. It was a good shot because it went in not based on pure shot selection. But hey those shots go in for Love. Love clearly has the ability to be a great player. You don’t want the ball in those moments and have the ability to knock down those shots otherwise. But man he is probably the most frustrating player I have ever watched play college basketball. Someone needs to inform Caleb that there are 36 more minutes to a game. But to his credit, he didn’t have any turnovers and his defense was better despite a rough offensive night for the first 36 minutes. I want Caleb to turn that corner so bad. He is right there.
The overall team defense was not bad. People have gotten caught on Syracuse’s record which has led people to believe that they aren’t a good team. They are well coached and they have some good players that are capable of knocking down some tough shots. Their guys knocked down some tough shots. Swider had the game of his life but he is a perfectly capable scorer. He had 21 double figure games before that game and was shooting 39.6% from 3. He knocked down a shot where Love had a hand in Swider’s face. Literally. Love’s hand was blocking his vision. He made a lot of contested shots and so did other Orange players. Girard’s shot that sent the game to OT was contested well by RJ Davis.
The weird matchup with Swider was set up by Black getting matched up with Buddy Boeheim. Black dogged him most of the night and limited him based on Buddy Boeheim standards. This was crucial with the night that Swider had. Black also racked up 7 assists. If you exclude Ryan McAdoo starting due to it being Senior Night, there was only a 6 man rotation (regular starters plus Puff Johnson). Thankfully this game was on a Monday so the Heels have had almost a week to rest and prepare for the rematch with Duke.
We all know the first game did not go well. Manek was the only Tar Heel that didn’t look shell shocked. Bacot picked up 2 early fouls and started off guarding Banchero. Not really sure why. My guess is he asked HD for the matchup after Banchero was caught on video calling the Carolina players “soft.” After that Black switched onto him and did a good job. Banchero only had 13 points, but did go 2-4 from 3. This meant that Manek was guarding Griffin and that spiraled rather quickly. Griffin dropped 27 and went 11-17 from the field including 3-6 from 3. We also got outrebounded handily 24-40 and our guard play was terrible. That stats from the first matchup are below.
Previous Matchup Notes
Brady Manek had 21 points on 7-16 shooting, 6-10 from 3, 1-2 FT, 6 rebounds
Armando Bacot had 12 points on 4-10 shooting, 4-5 FT, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 TO, 1 block, 2 steals
RJ Davis had 11 points on 4-11 shooting, 0-3 from 3, 3-4 FT, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 TO, 2 steals
Caleb Love had 8 points on 3-10 shooting, 1-5 from 3, 1-2 FT, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 TOs
Leaky Black had 4 points on 2-4 shooting, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 TO, 2 blocks
Kerwin Walton had 5 points on 2-4 shooting, 1-2 from 3, 1 rebound, 1 TO
TEAM STATS:
40.7% FG (24-59)
40.9% 3PT (9-22)
66.7% FT (10-15)
24 rebounds
13 assists
8 turnovers
3 blocks
5 steals
Styes and Dunn each had 3 points
The team had 8 total turnovers, Love had half of them (4)
Davis and Love combined to go 7-21 from the field and 1-8 from 3
Outrebounded 24-40
2 second chance points
Carolina basically needs to do the exact opposite of what they did in the first game to have a chance to win. The stage is set. It’s Coach K’s last home game in Cameron. College GameDay will once again be on hand. K has invited over 200 of his former players. The odds are stacked against the Heels. ESPN reflects this, giving Carolina only a 12.2% chance to win. Carolina will have the crowd against them, most likely the refs against them and the basketball gods against them. But Duke has all the pressure even though this game doesn’t really mean all that much. Duke has already won the regular season. Carolina has already wrapped up a double bye in the ACC tournament. Carolina is technically in a tie for 2nd with Notre Dame but the Irish get the tiebreaker, so they really sit in 3rd. A Carolina loss would move Miami up into 3rd and Carolina would be in 4th. A win might help Carolina’s NCAA tournament seeding, but that’s about it. This game is purely about pride. The Duke players have all the pressure of sending K out with a win. Carolina just needs to compete for 40 minutes.
Duke has 3 conference losses to Miami, FSU and Virginia. Those losses are by a combined 4 points. If Carolina hopes to pull out a win it will have to come down to the wire. Griffin was hot before the first matchup. Now it’s Keels. Keels had 27 points against Pitt and went 10-15 from the field including 5-8 from 3. Roach started in the first matchup as Keels was just coming back from injury. Keels was reinserted into the starting lineup against Wake Forest on 2/15/22. The rotation is as follows:
STARTERS:
W. Moore Jr. F (JR 6-5) (23) [5]
A J. Griffin F (FR 6-6) (18) [8]
P. Banchero F (FR 6-10) (28) [7]
M. Williams C (SO 7-1) (18) [6]
T. Keels G (FR 6-5) (19) [7]
BENCH:
J. Roach G (SO 6-2) (9) [3]
J. Baker F (SR 6-6) (6) [1]
T. John F (GRAD 6-9) (1)
B. Jones F (GRAD 6-8)
The rotation is really 8 guys (starters plus Roach, Baker and John). Jones sees limited minutes when he does see action. If you want to break it down even more, the main rotation is the starters and Roach. Roach is the biggest contributor off the bench in terms of scoring and has seen time in the starting lineup as mentioned above. The total number of double figure games for each player is in parentheses to the right of their class and height. The number of double figure games since the first matchup is to the right of that in brackets. Duke has had balanced scoring from their starters and really has most of the season.
Duke’s starters play the majority of the minutes. Moore Jr. leads the team in minutes at 33.6 minutes per game. Keels and Banchero are the other players that average over 30 minutes a game. Roach averages 29.3 minutes a game. Williams and Griffin both average 22 minutes.
Baker and John average between 12-13 minutes.
Duke is ranked 2nd (up from 5th) in the ACC in 3 point shooting percentage at 38.3% in league play. Several different players have gotten hot throughout the year. Griffin shoots a remarkable 48.7% from behind the arc. Moore Jr shoots 40.2% and Keels shoots a respectable 34.1%.
The matchup with the most attention is how will our bigs guard Banchero. Banchero shoots 33.3% from 3. I would make him beat you with his jump shot as opposed to driving to the basket. Give him some space until he proves he can knock it down from long range. The relevant 3 point percentages are listed out below:
3 POINT PERCENTAGES:
Banchero 33% (33-100)
Moore Jr. 40.2% (39-97)
Keels 34.1% (46-135)
Griffin 48.7% (57-117)
Roach 33% (30-91)
Baker 41.4% (29-70)
Banchero is the matchup everyone is concerned about. As mentioned above, Black did a good job on him in the last matchup. He will probably get him again. This leaves Manek guarding a guard which isn’t ideal. We saw how Griffin burned him in the first matchup. Keels is hot, so you don’t really want him guarding Keels. Moore Jr shoots over 40% from 3. See the dilemma? I would put Manek on Banchero and tell Manek to give him space and make him beat you with his jump shot. I highly doubt that happens, but that is what I would do. I would put Leaky on Griffin. Love on Keels and Davis on Moore. Bacot is guarding Williams no matter what. But again that probably won’t happen. So who does Manek guard? Moore Jr I guess? Put Love on Griffin and Davis on Keels? Davis is going to give up a ton of size to whoever he is guarding. Moore Jr is the smallest guard so personally I would want Davis on Moore. Carolina’s guards are undersized no matter what. Carolina could eliminate these problems by going zone, but that would leave the Heels more vulnerable to offensive rebounds and rebounding killed Carolina in the first matchup. Some of that did have to do with Bacot getting into foul trouble. But Carolina hardly ever plays zone, so that is wishful thinking on my part.
Pick and pop or screen and roll situations can be a real problem in this game. It’s been a big problem most of the season, but it feels magnified with the size differences and the 3 point shooting percentages of both Moore and Griffin. Moore and Griffin will have the ability to shoot over Love and Davis especially with any extra room provided by a screen. Tar Heel defenders must fight through the screen and go over instead of going under the screen. But they can’t let the Duke guards seal them on their back hip. If they get that first step, our guards won’t have much of a chance to stop them going to the lane.
Duke can be turnover prone as Duke’s guards have spotty ball handling tendencies. Again not unlike our guards but we will discuss that a little further down. Carolina struggles to force turnovers, but needs to create some more possessions against a good defensive Duke team.
Duke guards are physical and apply a lot of ball pressure, something our guards have struggled to handle at times this year. Ball pressure has forced our guards to spend the majority of the shot clock dribbling around the perimeter leading to a forced shot from long distance at the end of the clock. Duke leads the ACC in 3 point field goal percentage defense, so even though we are top 5 in the league in shooting 3’s it’s not something we can rely on. We are at our best when our guards get into the lane and dish. Being able to get dribble penetration will be crucial. Both Love and Davis struggled in the first matchup and sometimes Love forgets there are 40 minutes to a game. Both these guys need to be locked in for 40 minutes. Love and Davis need to play Duke’s guards even at least.
Duke plays an up tempo style with a high number of possessions. Their guards force turnovers and they like to get out and run. Possessions won’t be at a premium in this game, but they still need to be valued. Don’t give Duke many free possessions off turnovers, and try to force a few of your own.
Duke does a good job on the boards and that’s including rebounding their own misses. Again don’t give Duke extra possessions. They have great ball movement and are shooting 48.7% in ACC play and are second in the ACC in rebounding. Carolina is first in both total rebounding and defensive rebounding percentage. Duke is first in offensive rebounding percentage. The first game may not have been lost completely due to losing the rebounding battle (overall play was terrible), but it definitely contributed. If Carolina does not win the rebounding battle then there is no chance the Heels win this game.
So enter Mark Williams. Williams affects a lot of shots. We all know that. He is foul prone at times though. Bacot has to win this battle and get him in foul trouble. This may be hard to do with the Duke friendly whistles in Cameron. Bacot struggled in the first matchup against Williams, but still managed 12 points. He wasn’t strong when he got his hands on the ball though. Bacot needs to be strong. It’s easy to not call a foul when you go up weakly. Go up strong and force them to call a foul. Bacot has to win this matchup. It’s one of the many things that have to go right for Carolina to have a shot at pulling off the upset.
Latest KENPOM Ratings: UNC is 37th, Duke is 5th
Latest NET Rankings: UNC is 38th, Duke is 6th
Duke is Q1 game
Changing it up and doing keys to the game instead of things to watch.
KEYS TO THE GAME
Win the Rebounding Battle (Carolina and Duke are the 2 best rebounding teams in the ACC. Duke handily won the rebounding battle in the first matchup. I don’t see how Carolina can have a shot at winning the game if they don’t win this matchup.)
Guard Play (Guard play wins or loses these types of games. Both Love and Davis didn’t play well in the first matchup and Carolina got spanked. It’s not a coincidence.. Love and Davis must handle the ball pressure from the Duke guards and drive the lane. They must guard every possession on defense. They must keep their man in front and they must make good decisions. Carolina also needs Love and Davis to knock down some shots from beyond the arc.)
Don’t get Banchero Obsessed (Duke has 4 other guys that can beat you even though Williams does most of his work off second chance opportunities. Focus all your attention on Banchero and another guy is going to drop 25+ like Griffin did in the first matchup. Every guy just needs to handle their matchup. Banchero is not a great jump shooter. Make him beat you with his jump shot. If he is hitting 3’s well Carolina probably isn’t going to win anyway not unless everyone else is ice cold.)
Don’t be Scared of Williams (Carolina is better when Love and Davis drive and when there is an effort to get the ball down low to Bacot. Williams is a shot blocker, I know. But that can’t be a reason to stand around the perimeter and jack up 3’s. You still have to drive. It will lead to open 3’s. You still have to feed Bacot. Williams is foul prone. At least give Bacot a chance to get him in foul trouble. Strong drives to the basket also increase the chance of this happening.)
Handling the Moment (Carolina did not do this in the first matchup. The Heels got blitzed out the gate in both halves. Got it within striking distance before the end of the first half but then got blitzed again to start the second half. The Heels have to come out ready to fight. Can they handle the atmosphere, the crowd, the big stage? If Carolina comes out flat it will get ugly in a hurry and Cameron will turn into an even bigger frenzy than it already will be. Every Tar Heel that steps out on that floor needs to be prepared for an absolute dog fight. Fight for 40 minutes and see what happens.)
I will be taking a break from previews for the ACC tournament. I will be out snowboarding in Colorado. Go Heels!
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