GAME INFO:
February 5, 2022
6:00pm Tip Off | College GameDay kicks off at 11:00am
Dean E. Smith Center Center (Capacity: 21,750)
Chapel Hill, NC
TV: ESPN
UNC is given a 45.8% chance to win by ESPN
College GameDay info can be found here:
Records:
UNC: 16-6 (8-3 in ACC)
#9 Duke: 18-3 (8-2 in ACC)
Last Time Out:
UNC: Won at Louisville 90-83 OT
#9 Duke: Won at Notre Dame 57-43
SERIES INFO:
• Carolina and Duke meet for the 256th time overall and the 37th time in the Dean E. Smith Center when the teams play Saturday, February 5, at 6 p.m. (ESPN).
• The Tar Heels won both games against the Blue Devils last season, winning 91-87 at Cameron Indoor Stadium and 91-73 in Chapel Hill.
• Carolina leads the all-time series against Duke, 141-114 (255 games are more than any other opponent for the Tar Heels).
• Carolina is 65-37 in Chapel Hill vs. the Blue Devils, including 20-16 in the Smith Center.
• Carolina is 48-49 against Mike Krzyzewski's Duke teams.
• Carolina and Duke have won 39 of the ACC's 66 Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament championships, including 21 by Duke and 18 by UNC.
• Carolina and Duke are No. 1 and 2 all-time in the ACC in wins, ACC regular-season wins, ACC Tournament wins and NCAA Tournament wins.
• Carolina has won the ACC regular-season title 32 times. The Blue Devils are second with 19 regular-season crowns.
• Either Carolina or Duke have played in the NCAA Final Four 25 times in the last 41 seasons.
• The Tar Heels and Blue Devils have won 10 national championships in the last 41 seasons – five by Carolina and five by Duke.
• Carolina has played in an NCAA-record 20 Final Fours. Duke has played in 16.
• Hubert Davis was 6-5 as a player against the Blue Devils, including 2-2 at the Smith Center.
• The teams have three sets of high school teammates. UNC's RJ Davis and Duke's AJ Griffin played at Archbishop Stepanic in White Plains, N.Y.; UNC's Leaky Black played as a senior at Cox Mill High School in Concord, N.C., with Duke's Wendell Moore; and Anthony Harris (UNC), Trevor Keels and Jeremy Roach (Duke) played at St. Paul VI in Fairfax, Va.
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (16.5 PPG)
Duke: P. Banchero (17.8 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (12.5)
Duke: P. Banchero (8.3)
Assists:
UNC: Love (3.5)
Duke: W. Moore Jr. (4.5)
Louisville Notes
Brady Manek had 24 points on 10-18 shooting, 4-9 from 3, 6 rebounds, 2 blocks
Armando Bacot had 19 points on 8-15 shooting, 3-5 FT, 22 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 TOs, 2 blocks, 3 steals
RJ Davis had 18 points on 6-15 shooting, 4-8 from 3, 2-2 FT, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 TOs, 1 block, 1 steal
Caleb Love had 16 points on 3-18 shooting, 1-6 from 3, 9-10 FT, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 turnovers, 2 steals
Leaky Black had 13 points on 4-4 shooting, 3-3 from 3, 2-2 FT, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal
TEAM STATS:
43.7% FG (31-71)
46.2% 3PT (12-26)
80% FT (16-20)
44 rebounds
18 assists
10 turnovers
5 blocks
7 steals
Leaky Black did not miss a shot
Caleb Love accounted for 40% of the team’s turnovers and had more field goal attempts than points
0 bench points
0 fast break points
The Tar Heels escaped Louisville and flying trash with an overtime win. The Heels were completely responsible for how the game got to that point. They weren’t responsible for fans throwing trash obviously but they were responsible for how hard they made that win. It was probably the biggest self destruction act of the season so far, but a win is a win. Yes the Cardinals were without their best player but earlier in the year that game may have been lost after that epic collapse. Armando said it best that the team has laid down in a ball at times on the road. Louisville is a tough place to play and it’s the most hostile environment the Heels have been in. Despite the drama, missed opportunities, and some frustrating basketball, Carolina still won. There is something to be said for that as a loss would have certainty knocked the Heels out of the field of 68. There was some maturity and some toughness which has been hard to come by, especially on the road this season.
The officiating was questionable throughout the entire game as the game definitely had an ole time ACC basketball feel to it. It was a physical game. But we have been on the opposite end of a lot of calls so I don’t really feel any type of way for Louisville. It’s part of the game no matter how much it sucks. ACC officiating in both basketball and football has been terrible this year. It’s just par for the course.
I really want Love to be successful. I really want him to be a good player and a leader. But when an entire fanbase and the radio broadcaster (who is a former player) says you are playing selfishly then there is a problem. Eric Montross called out Love and said he needed to put his pride aside and trust the process of team basketball. That is a big statement from a former player. Love had more shot attempts than points and was responsible for 40% of the team's turnovers. Love has got to up the mental side of his game. He can’t just decide when he wants to try his best and when he doesn’t. Michael Jordan addressed the team before the State game and said that if you really love something then you put passion into it every time you get to do whatever you love. I guess that message only applied to the State game. And yes I saw his tweet about owing Carolina a better performance and being ready for the Duke game. But how many times have we seen that tweet? Actions speak louder than words, just start playing hard every game. Luckily he has played extremely well against Duke so far in his career.
Leaky Black has been extremely important to the current 4 game win streak. Carolina recorded 0 bench points against Louisville but got another double digit performance from Black where he didn’t miss a basket. Black has said he has been speaking with a therapist and praying with Jackie Manual and both of those things have really helped his anxiety which in turn has helped his confidence. I have always felt like the offensive ability was there, he just wasn’t looking for it. Black is now looking for his offense and it’s paying off big for Carolina right now. Still the Heels need some bench production on Saturday night.
The greatest rivalry in sports is renewed on Saturday night. The rivalry needs no introduction and doesn’t need any added hype. But add in Coach K’s last trip to Chapel Hill on his pretentious farewell tour to the list. No matter what he will finish with a losing record in Chapel Hill. He is currently 16-20 in the Smith Center. College Gameday will be at the Smith Center as well. Hubert Davis used to be a part of the College Gameday crew, so that will be a nice reunion for him. Gameday kicks off at 11am, and Chapel Hill will be rocking all day. Add Banchero’s snapchat video of him calling unc players “soft as shit” and our guys don’t need anymore motivation. You can throw out rankings and records when Carolina and Duke meet. The rivalry usually doesn’t disappoint.
Also this game will be for first place in the conference. If Carolina wins then there is a potential 4 way tie for first between Carolina, Duke, Notre Dame and Miami. Notre Dame plays at State and Miami plays at UVA so anything can happen. A loss would mean Duke would continue to sit alone atop the standings and Carolina would be tied with Wake Forest for 3rd at 8-4. Wake Forest would have the tie-breaker though since they won the only matchup this season. So despite a roller coaster season and being unranked, this game is very meaningful. Again those things aren’t accounting for what Wake, Miami or Notre Dame do over the weekend. All 3 of those teams could lose.
It’s worth noting that ESPN is giving us a 45.8% chance to win, this is up from 39.9% earlier in the week. Not sure what happened to even the odds a little bit, but I will take it.
Just to not sugar coat things, this will be a tough matchup and will require our best basketball of the season or really bad basketball from Duke. Honesty it’s going to take us playing really well and Duke being a little off. But it’s doable. It’s not like they haven’t been beaten. Duke has notable wins over Kentucky and Gonzaga. The loss to Ohio State looked bad earlier in the year until the Buckeyes climbed into the rankings. They have conference wins over Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, Syracuse, Clemson, Louisville, and Notre Dame. Their two conference losses include a home loss to Miami and an overtime loss at Florida State.
Speaking of Duke needing to be a little off, they have been really off from the 3 point line in the last 2 games. They went 6-20 at Louisville and 3-9 at Notre Dame. Combine those and they have gone 9-49 in the past 2 games. They also struggled to score against Notre Dame in what ended up being a terrible offensive game for both teams. This is either really good or really bad news for Carolina. Hopefully Duke continues their shooting woes and doesn’t use the game as a way to get back on track. It’s worth noting both of those games were away games, and Carolina is much better defensively at home.
Trevor Keels has been out for several games, but made his return against Notre Dame. He came off the bench and played 26 minutes. He only scored 3 points. Jeremy Roach has been starting in his place. I wouldn’t be surprised if Keels jumps back into the starting lineup for this game. Love has had Roach’s number and Keels puts Love at a significant size advantage. Their rotation is as follows:
STARTERS:
W. Moore Jr. F (JR 6-5) (18)
A J. Griffin F (FR 6-6) (10)
P. Banchero F (FR 6-10) (21)
M. Williams C (SO 7-1) (12)
J. Roach G (SO 6-2) (6)
BENCH:
T. Keels G (FR 6-5) (12)
J. Baker F (SR 6-6) (5)
T. John F (GRAD 6-9) (1)
B. Jones F (GRAD 6-8)
Duke has played a little bit with the rotation in terms of Griffin, Keels and Roach but it’s been pretty consistent. They play 9 guys now that Keels is back. Bates is usually the 9th man but only averages 6.1 minutes a game. Theo John hasn’t been a huge contributor as some were predicting, so their main contributors are the starters listed and then Keels and Baker.
The number of double figure games each player has had is to the right of their class and height. Duke is led by Banchero (obvious I know) and Moore Jr. Moore Jr has taken a huge step forward this year. A.J Griffin has really stepped up in the absence of Keels. He had 22 points against Louisville where he went 5-5 from 3, and he had 13 against Notre Dame. Those games being 2 of the 10 times he has scored in double figures this season. Banchero, Moore Jr, Keels and Williams all average double figures. Griffin averages 9 points per game.
Not dissimilar to Carolina, Duke’s starters carry the majority of the load minutes wise. Moore Jr leads the team with 33.7 minutes per game. Banchero, Keels and Roach are the other players over 30. Williams averages 21.7. Griffin averages 19.5. Baker averages 15.4 and John averages 11.7.
As noted above Duke has been off from the 3 point line as of late but is respectively ranked 5th in the acc at 37.2% in league play. Baker shoots 39.3% from 3 and Bates shoots 41.2%. Both are listed as forwards and could spell trouble for our bigs. But those guys don’t have the speed and agility that previous bigs have had that have caused our bigs trouble. I would imagine Manek would be able to handle either. Also noted above, Moore Jr has shown a lot of improvement this year and that includes his 3 point shooting. He shoots 40.2% from behind the line. Griffin shoots 50%.
The matchup with the most attention is how will our bigs guard Banchero. Banchero shoots 31.8% from 3. I would make him beat you with his jump shot as opposed to driving to the basket. Give him some space until he proves he can knock it down from long range. The relevant 3 point percentages are listed out below:
3 point percentages:
Banchero 31.8% (21-66)
Moore Jr 40.3% (29-72)
Keels 29% (27-93)
Griffin 50% (33-66)
Roach 31.8% (21-66)
Baker 39.3% (24-61)
Bates 41.2% (7-17)
Duke provides a lot of match-up problems. The matchup with Banchero is the obvious one. Manek most likely gets that assignment so Bacot can bang in the post with Williams. The guard match-ups get a little tricky.
Wendell Moore Jr is 6-5 and weighs 213. Keels is 6-5 and weighs 221. Griffin is 6-6 and weighs 222. By comparison, Black is 6-8 and weighs 200. Love is 6-4 and weighs 195. Davis is 6-0 (that's generous) and weighs 175. It’s worth noting that Love guarded Roach last year so that match-up doesn’t necessarily present any problems. Even though if Roach does start then Davis will most likely get the assignment on him and he is giving up 2 inches. So now you are faced with who guards Moore Jr and who guards Griffin. Just based on pure size I would say Black most likely guards Griffin. If you have seen Duke play at all this year then you know Griffin is huge for a guard. Moore is smaller in stature so would be a better match-up for Love. The problem comes when Moore Jr, Griffin and Keels are all on the floor at the same time. Keels is also a huge guard so does that mean RJ is stuck with that assignment or does Love switch over to Keels and RJ gets Moore? Either way RJ is giving up a ton of size to whoever he guards. Love would also be giving up a ton of size to Keels. But it’s an unavoidable problem. This makes it even more important to keep those guys in front. If Keels or Griffin can get into the lane then they are just going to bully Love or Davis. You have to find a way to make them play out on the perimeter. We just don’t have any guards that can match Keels’ or Griffin’s size. Miami didn’t have guards that matched up well either but was still able to pull off the upset on the road so again it’s not an impossible thing to overcome. This is where a zone defense would really be beneficial but alas, we aren’t a zone team.
Pick and pop or screen and roll situations can be a real problem in this game. It’s been a big problem most of the season, but it feels magnified with the size differences and the 3 point shooting percentages of both Moore and Griffin. Moore and Griffin will have the ability to shoot over Love and Davis especially with any extra room provided by a screen. Tar Heel defenders must fight through the screen and go over instead of going under the screen. But they can’t let the Duke guards seal them on their back hip. If they get that first step, our guards won’t have much of a chance to stop them going to the lane.
Duke can be turnover prone as Duke’s guards have spotty ball handling tendencies. Again not unlike our guards but we will discuss that a little further down. Carolina struggles to force turnovers, but needs to create some more possessions against a good defensive Duke team.
Duke guards are physical and apply a lot of ball pressure, something our guards have struggled to handle at times this year. Ball pressure has forced our guards to spend the majority of the shot clock dribbling around the perimeter leading to a forced shot from long distance at the end of the clock. Duke leads the ACC in 3 point field goal percentage defense, so even though we are top 4 in the league in shooting 3’s it’s not something we can rely on. We are at our best when our guards get into the lane and dish. Being able to get dribble penetration will be crucial.
Duke plays an up tempo style with a high number of possessions. Their guards force turnovers and they like to get out and run. Possessions won’t be at a premium in this game, but they still need to be valued. Don’t give Duke many free possessions off turnovers, and try to force a few of your own.
Duke does a good job on the boards and that’s including rebounding their own misses. Again don’t give Duke extra possessions. They have great ball movement and are shooting 48.4% in ACC play and rebound 33% of their misses. We rebound 82.2% of opponent misses. This is best in the ACC by a lot. Something has to give on the boards.
A big factor in the post for Duke is Mark Williams. He affects a lot of shots even if he doesn’t get a block. Williams is also prone to foul trouble. If Bacot can get Williams into foul trouble that would give us a major advantage down low. But Bacot has struggled against bigger, more physical defenders at times this year and he must stay out of foul trouble as well. Bacot and Williams will battle it out 1 v 1. Williams scores a lot of his points off second chance opportunities but Bacot is one of the better, if not the best, rebounders in the ACC. Bacot winning that battle will go a long way to winning the game.
Both teams are coming into the game with 4 game win streaks, and first place in the ACC is on the line. Welcome back to the greatest rivalry in sports.
Latest KENPOM Ratings: UNC is 37th, Duke is 12th
Latest NET Rankings: UNC is 35th, Duke is 12th
THINGS TO WATCH:
Rotation/Bench Production (I would imagine the rotation for this game will continue the streak of short rotations used by Hubert Davis. But we got 0 points from the bench against Louisville and it’s hard to imagine a victory over Duke without some help from the bench. Black has had a great last couple of games, but it’s still not great to have to rely on him for a double figure night.)
Handling Ball Pressure (Duke’s guards provide a lot of ball pressure. They are very good at pushing the opposition’s offense out and forcing them to play beyond the 3 point line. We can’t afford to spend the game dribbling around the perimeter and throwing up contested 3’s. Our guards have to attack and get into the lane. But they also can’t force things trying to do so and turn the ball over. This decides the game more than anything else.)
Defensive Intensity (Taking any possessions off in this game is going to be costly. Duke is an efficient offensive team. Our guards can’t allow their guards to drive. This leads to open 3’s and a hot 3 point shooting Duke team almost certainty spells doom. Manek needs to make Banchero beat him with his jump shot and Bacot needs to beat Williams on the boards.)
Bacot v Williams (Williams is foul prone and Bacot getting him in foul trouble will significantly help our chances of winning the game. Bacot hasn’t quite faced someone with the height and size of Williams this year and has struggled against bigger, more physical defenders. Williams gets most of his points off second chance opportunities but hasn’t faced a rebounder like Bacot. This is going to be a physical battle all game. Let’s hope for a little home cooking from the guys in stripes.)
Love v Duke (In his 2 games against the Blue Devils last year, Love averaged 21.5 points per game. Love struggled through his freshman season, but shined when playing against the team in darker blue. Love is coming off of a rough performance at Louisville that had Eric Montross questioning his ability to put his pride aside for the team. Duke slayer Caleb Love needs to be out in full force Saturday night.)
And for the people out there that think we need to honor Coach K… We absolutely owe him nothing. Yeah K made sure there was a moment of silence and the whole circle thing at half court when Dean Smith passed away but let’s not compare one of the greatest college basketball coaches in history dying to the retirement of another. This is about Carolina vs Duke not about one coach. This rivalry continues no matter who is coaching each side. Carolina is acting accordingly.
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