GAME INFO:
February 12, 2022
2:00pm Tip Off
Dean E Smith Center (Capacity: 21,750)
Chapel Hill, NC
TV: ESPN
UNC is given a 80.2% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
UNC: 17-7 (9-4 in ACC)
Florida State:13-10 (6-7 in ACC)
Last Time Out:
UNC: Won at Clemson 79-77
Florida State: Lost to Pitt 51-56
SERIES INFO:
• Carolina leads the series, 51-16. That includes a 41-15 advantage since the Seminoles joined the ACC in 1991-92.
• The Seminoles have won three of the last four and four of the last six games vs. UNC. Those four losses include three in Tallahassee and one in Greensboro in the 2021 ACC Tournament semifinals.
• Carolina has won six straight vs. the Seminoles in the Smith Center. FSU's most recent win in Chapel Hill came in 2010.
• The teams played three times last season for the first time since 2013 when UNC swept all three games.
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (16.6 PPG)
Florida State: C. Mills (13.3 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (12.1)
Florida State: M. Osborne (6.9)
Assists:
UNC: Love (3.6)
Florida State: R. Evans (2.8)
Clemson Notes
Armando Bacot had 24 points on 8-10 shooting, 8-10 FT, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 TOs, 1 steal
RJ Davis had 16 points on 6-11 shooting, 3-4 from 3, 1-2 FT, 3 rebounds, 6 assists
Brady Manek had 11 points on 5-12 shooting, 1-5 from 3, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 TOs
Leaky Black had 11 points on 4-7 shooting, 1-4 from 3, 2-2 FT, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 1 block
Caleb Love had 10 points on 4-12 shooting, 2-7 from 3, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 5 TOs, 1 steal, 1 block
Kerwin Walton had 7 points on 2-4 shooting, 1-2 from 3, 2-2 FT, 2 TOs, 1 block
TEAM STATS:
50% FG (50%)
33.3% 3PT (8-24)
76.5% FT (13-17)
35 rebounds
17 assists
14 turnovers
3 blocks
4 steals
*Starters are in yellow. Unavailable players are in red
Just to kick things off… Garcia has announced that he will miss the remainder of the season as he attends to several serious illnesses within his family back home. It’s really unfortunate as far as the team goes, but he is where he needs to be. I hope he returns next season and that his family can get healthy. Let that be a humbling reminder that life is a lot bigger than Carolina Basketball.
In good news, with Michigan’s beat down off Purdue last night, the Heels currently have ONE Q1 win. They are ranked 30th so that may not hold, but for the moment it’s the first Q1 win of the season. The win over Clemson is currently a Q2 win, but if Clemson finishes the season strong that could turn into a Q1 win.
That game wasn’t without controversy though. The officially was questionable. RJ Davis got a technical foul for yelling “And 1” after a tough finish at the basket. The official at the basketball took exception to that and T’ed him up. That’s just really weak in my opinion. I thought maybe RJ cursed or said something inappropriate, but it’s been confirmed he literally just yelled “And 1.” Like seriously? That was followed up by a clear missed offensively foul on PJ Hall when he scored under the basket to tie the game. The announcers literally said “And Hall pushes off and scores.” Again really?
The last play was handled beautifully though. Hubert Davis called a timeout and drew up a play. He decided to keep the ball in Love’s hand despite the fact that he was having an off game. Love did hit that deep step back 3 to put Carolina ahead before the Hall push-off basket. Love drove the lane and Manek drove to the lane and Love dished it to him for the winning basket. It was a beautifully drawn up play and it was executed to perfection by 2 guys that were having off nights. Props to Davis for having the confidence to go to both of those guys despite the nights they were having and props to Love for making the right decision.
HD gave Dunn and Styles first half minutes and Styles provided a spark off the bench. HD efficiently and effectively used his timeouts throughout the game. You saw more fire from him throughout the game than in any other game this season. He outcoached Brad Brownell. It wasn’t a pretty game by Carolina, but they got a win. And that’s all they need right now.
Shoutout to Leaky Black’s mom for yelling “defense” the entire game.
If there is a team that has had more adversity with losing players than Carolina, it’s Florida State. The Seminoles are currently without McLeod, Osborne and Polite. McLeod broke his hand and had to have surgery. Osborne is done for the year after having surgery on his left ankle. Most recently, Polite fractured his wrist and had to have surgery. This trio combines for 24.2 points and 14.5 rebounds a game. Polite is second on the team in total assists with 52. Osborne and Polite are FSU’s most veteran players. Butler and Fletcher are both dealing with ankle injuries that had them in a boot on Monday. Mills is recovering from Tonsillitis and other issues, but is “almost back to 100%.” All 3 players played in their loss to Pitt on Wednesday.
Florida State has lost 5 straight as they try to adjust to life without some of their key pieces. It’s been an up and down season for the Seminoles even before they got hit with the injury bug. They had a close early season win over Tulane and a 1 point OT win over Boston University. They got blown out by Purdue and have an out of conference loss to South Carolina. They split their season series with Syracuse. They have lost to Wake Forest twice and beat Miami twice. Both wins over Miami were by 1 point. They won at State and beat Louisville at home. They have a 1 point OT victory over Duke in Tallahassee. They have away losses at Georgia Tech and Clemson; Home losses against Virginia Tech and Pitt.
Due to injuries, Florida State’s rotation has been shuffled a lot. Their rotation is as follows:
STARTERS:
J. Butler F (FR 7-1) (3)
T. Ngom C (SR 7-2) (2)
M. Cleveland G (FR 6-7) (12)
R. Evans G (SR 6-4) (4)
C. Mills G (SO 6-5) (16)
BENCH:
H. Prieto F (RS-SR 6-8) (1)
Q. Ballard C (SO 7-0)
J. Warley G (FR 6-6)
C. Fletcher G (SO 6-7) (5)
W. Wilkes G (RS-SR 6-8) (2)
Mills, Fletcher, Wilkes, and Warley are the only players that have played in every game. Cleveland has played in 22, and Evans has played in 20. Ngom has played in 12. Prieto has played in 13. Ballard has played in 11. Florida State is now having to rely on players that are inexperienced, and their struggles reflect that. Leonard Hamilton will still play a bunch of guys though. Their rotation is 9-10 guys even with injuries. All of the players listed saw playing time against Pitt.
Caleb Mills and Matthew Cleveland are the only active players averaging in double figures. The number of double figure games is to the right of the player’s class and height. Fletcher is a transfer from Kentucky and is the biggest contributor off the bench.
In their 5 game losing streak, they are averaging 62.6 points per game which includes only putting up 51 against Pitt. The Noles are struggling to find scoring options outside of Cleveland, Mills and Fletcher. Cleveland and Mills were the only players in double figures against Pitt. Fletcher had 9. Evans was the next closest player with 4 points. Clearly the offense is run through Cleveland and Mills.
Caleb Mills leads active players in minutes per game at 27.5. Cleveland and Evans are the only other players averaging over 20 minutes. Fletcher, Butler, and Warley average between 10-20. Ngom and Prieto both average a little over 9 minutes per game. Ballard averages 5. Fatigue isn’t a problem for FSU, but inexperience is as they try to find chemistry between players that haven’t spent a lot of time playing together.
FSU averages significantly more bench points, but this has taken a hit with injuries as usual bench players have been forced into the starting lineup. The Seminoles’ shooting percentage defense isn’t great, but they force a lot of steals and average almost 19 points off turnovers as a result. If Carolina can be efficient in their half court offense and avoid turnovers then it’s going to make it even harder for FSU to score.
FSU is not a great team from behind the arc both defensively or offensively. Mills shoots a very respectable 37.2%. Fletcher shoots 38.5% from deep with half the attempts. The biggest problem may be Butler. He is a forward that shoots 39.3% from deep as our bigs have consistently struggled to guard opposing bigs that can shoot the 3. The list of 3 point percentages is below:
3 Point Percentages:
Mills 37.2% (29-78)
Cleveland 14.8% (4-27)
Evans 32.4% (12-37)
Fletcher 38.5% (15-39)
Butler 39.3% (22-56)
Wilkes 30.4% (21-69)
Prieto 41.7% (5-12)
Warley 26.7% (4-15)
FSU may be missing some key pieces, but they are still a big, physical team. Both their starting forwards are over 7 feet, but neither are a huge offensive threat. In that regard, it doesn’t really matter who Bacot or Manek guards. Being that Bacot is a better post defender, I would start him out on Ngom. Start Manek on Butler. Evans is less of an offensive threat and he is the shortest guy in the starting lineup. RJ Davis will get to check him. Mills and Cleveland are kinda tricky. I think Mills is definitely their best player, but if Love guards Cleveland he is at a huge height disadvantage and Cleveland is their second best scoring option. I think Black starts on Cleveland and Love starts on Mills. Florida State also has big guards that come off the bench. Wilkes is a shooter despite the fact that his percentage isn’t very high. He stands at 6’8”. Fletcher is 6’7.” There could be some big matchup problems when and if Fletcher, Cleveland and Mills are all on the floor.
Florida State would be a Q3 win, so this is another do-or-die game. The Seminoles are hungry for a win though having dropped 5 straight and some of those losses were to some of the worst teams in the ACC. This team did beat Duke, but that team isn’t the same team FSU is currently putting out on the court. Still expect the usual physicality that comes from the Seminoles.
Latest KENPOM Ratings: UNC is 45th, Florida State is 95th
Latest NET Rankings: UNC is 41st, Florida State is 96th
THINGS TO WATCH FOR:
Rotation: (Dunn and Styles saw first half minutes against Clemson. Styles obviously provided a spark off the bench. Puff did not play. Walton’s 7 points were very important. Does Style see more minutes? Has Walton cemented himself in the rotation? The bench is still an ever evolving situation.)
First 4 Minutes: (Carolina came out slow against Louisville, Duke, and now Clemson. That’s 3 straight games being blitzed out of the gate. The Louisville and Clemson games both resulted in wins, but this team has to start better. It’s just about building good habits.)
Energy, Effort, and Toughness: (The Heels play better at home (minus the Duke game), but have shown some resilience against both Clemson and Louisville. They play with more energy at home, and it’s obvious they feed off of the energy from the home crowd. FSU is going to play physically. Carolina must match their physicality.)
Guarding Bigger Guards: (Carolina has small guards, and Love and Davis have a hard time with larger guards. FSU is a big team with their shortest player, who sees playing time, being Evans at 6’4.” Evans isn’t a huge scoring threat but RJ is still giving up at least 4 inches to him. Love isn’t short, but his stature isn’t big. He gets out-bodied by guards who have bigger frames. FSU has big, physical guards. How Davis and Love handle that both offensively and defensively dictates how this game goes.)
Slumping Love: (Love didn’t have the bounce back overall performance he needed against Clemson. But he did make a big time 3 and made the right decision when he passed it off to Manek for the winning layup. That should give him some confidence. It’s hard to win when Love isn’t on. See how hard the Louisville and Clemson games were as evidence. The more Love struggles the more he presses. Love’s offense also directly affects the effort he gives on defense. The sooner Love breaks out of his current slump the better.)
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