GAME INFO:
February 1, 2022
8:00pm Tip Off
KFC Yum! Center (Capacity: 22,000)
Louisville, KY
TV: ACCN
UNC is given a 59.1% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
UNC: 15-6 (7-3 in ACC)
Louisville: 11-10 (5-6 in ACC)
Last Time Out:
UNC: Beat NC State 100-80
Louisville: Lost to Duke 65-74
SERIES INFO:
Carolina leads all time series 16-7
Heels are 2-5 at Louisville
Last meeting was a 99-54 Carolina win on 2/20/21 in Chapel Hill
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (16.3 PPG)
Louisville: M. Williams (10 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (12.1)
Louisville: M. Williams (8.7)
Assists:
UNC: Love (3.4)
Louisville: M. Faulkner (3.0)
NC State Notes
Caleb Love had 21 points on 6-16 shooting, 4-6 from 3, 5-5 FT, 5 assists, 1 TO, 2 steals
Armando Bacot had 18 points on 5-10 shooting, 8-10 FT, 13 rebounds, 1 TO, 6 blocks, 1 steal
RJ Davis had 17 points on 6-8 shooting, 3-4 from 3, 2-4 FT, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 TO, 1 steal
Brady Manek had 17 points on 6-8 shooting, 5-7 from 3, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 TO, 1 block, 2 steals
Leaky Black had 5 points on 2-4 shooting, 1-3 from 3, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 TOs, 1 block
Puff Johnson had 8 points on 3-5 shooting, 1-2 from 3, 1-2 FT, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 TO, 1 block
Dontrez Styles had 6 points on 3-4 shooting, 4 rebounds
Kerwin Walton had 5 points on 2-5 shooting, 1-4 from 3, 2 rebounds
TEAM STATS:
54.8% FG (34-62)
55.6% 3PT (15-27)
70.8% FT (17-24)
39 rebounds
17 assists
12 turnovers
9 blocks
7 steals
25 fast break points (most of year)
22 bench points
6 different Tar Heels hit a 3 pointer
Love and Davis combined for 9 assists and just 2 TOs
Held Seabron to 2 points on 1-6 shooting
Bacot became the 79th Tar Heels to reach 1,000 career points
The final score of the State game was a lot closer than the entire game ever really was, but the Heels got biscuits for the first time this season and it was even sweeter since it was against the Wolfpack. Life is easier when the ball goes in the basket and the Heels had 2 less points and more made field goals in the first half on Saturday than they did against Boston College. Shooting a higher percentage from behind the arc than from the field doesn’t happen very much, it’s even better when both those percentages are above 50%. 6 different Tar Heels made a 3. Puff Johnson was once again the first man off the bench and provided a huge lift even though this game didn’t lack any energy or effort. Everyone understood the assignment on a Saturday afternoon in the Smith Center.
State scoring 80 was also not indicative of how well the Heels played defensively for most of the game. There were some struggles stopping dribble penetration but the help defense was 100x times better than it has been in the past. You can’t talk about the defensive effort without mentioning the job Black did on Seabron. He held him to 2 points on 1-6 shooting. Now i’m not saying Black is a defensive god, but he shut down one of the top scorers in the ACC again.
Black also did a nice job pushing the ball up the floor. The Heel had 25 fast break points which is by far the most of the season. RJ Davis also looked to be in complete control of the game. He had a good feel for when to push the ball and prodded around for openings in the lane. Him and Love combined for 9 assists and 2 turnovers.
State applied a full court press which the Heels struggled with for the first couple of possessions. Manek or Bacot then started flashing to the center of the court and the press was broken with ease from there on out. But teams know that they can create a turnover or 2 from pressing Carolina if they aren’t prepared for it.
Speaking of which, the reserves had a hard time getting the ball in against the press late in the game which forced McKoy to call a timeout. Hubert lit into them on the sideline. I hadn’t seen that much fire out of HD all season. Hopefully that is a sign of coaching maturity.
Dontrez Styles has shown us flashes of what he can do. It was good to see him smile after converting on a basketball after being fouled. His offensive game combined with his athleticism will be a great asset to Carolina. But you also see flashes of why the freshmen don’t play much like the ball exchange between him and Dunn that led to a turnover and easy basket for State late in the game. Have patience, fellow Tar Heels.
This week is officially Hate Dook week. But first the Heels must travel to Louisville to take on the Cardinals. This will be another tough road test as the Heels have failed to even play close games against quality opponents on the road. And make no mistake, Louisville is a decent team. They have plenty of talent, but have had an up and down year before firing Chris Mack. They played inspired basketball against Duke, but came up just short. The Cardinals got punched in the mouth early by the Blue Devils, but fought back. Dook then pulled it back out to double digits with under 3 minutes to play. If you thought Louisville was going to lay over and die because of the firing of Chris Mack then you are sorely mistaken. It wasn’t necessarily a pretty game, but they showed fight. The Yum! Center was rocking and I will expect it to be rocking again against the Heels on Tuesday night. The Yum! Center holds 22,000 which is the biggest away arena the Heels will have been so far this season by a long shot.
Louisville, as mentioned above, has underperformed so far this year. They lost to Furman at home in their second game of the season. They had a close win over Detroit Mercy. Raise your hand if you have heard of them before? Yeah me neither. They beat Mississippi State and lost to Sparty by 9. They have losses to Depaul and Western Kentucky. They have split their season series with State and Pitt. They beat Wake Forest. They won a close game at Georgia Tech. They lost at FSU, and beat Boston College. They are currently on a 3 game losing streak with losses to Notre Dame, at UVA, and to Dook.
This is a team that struggled to shoot the 3 last year and used the transfer portal to try to address that. Louisville has 5 players in their rotation that transferred from other schools. Locke transferred from Florida. Eliis is a JUCO transfer. Faulkner transferred from Western Carolina. West transferred from Marshall. Cross transferred from Miami, so the Heels are already familiar with him. Up until this point in the season, their 3 point shooting hasn’t improved, but we all know how that goes.
Louisville plays 10-11 guys every game. They have a ton of players that they can throw at you, but the starting lineup has been inconsistent as they have been trying to find a lineup that would work all season. The current rotation is as follows:
STARTERS:
S. Curry F (JR 6-8) (2)
M. Williams F (GR 6-11) (12)
D. Davis G (SO 6-6) (7)
N. Locke G (SR 6-3) (13)
M. Faulkner G (GR 6-1) (4)
BENCH:
R. Wheeler F (FR 6-10)
M. Cross F (SO 6-7) (8)
J. Withers F (R-SO 6-8) (4)
S. Williamson F (FR 6-7) (5)
E. Ellis. G (JR 6-3) (7)
J. West G (GR 5-11) (3)
The current starting lineup has only been in place the past 3 games. Locke, Ellis, Cross, West, Williamson, Withers are the only players to have played in every game. Williams has started 19 games, Locke has started 20, Davis has started 15, West has started 17.
Offensively the team is led by Williams and Locke, but they have multiple scoring options. The number of double figure games for each player is to the right of their name, year, and height. Wheeler and Curry are the only players that aren’t real scoring threats. Curry is a big body despite his height though. Wheeler doesn’t see a ton of time so their height begins and ends with Williams essentially.
West leads the team in minutes at 27.5. Locke and Williams are the only other players that average over 25 minutes per game. Davis averages 20.2. Ellis, Cross, Williamson, Faulkner, Withers all average over 15 minutes a game. Curry averages 9.9. Wheeler averages 6.8.
As mentioned above, the cardinal brought in players to try to fill the 3 point shooting void from last year. Their best 3 point shooters are transfers. Ellis shoots 37.9% and Locke shoots 36.6%. Williams is a threat to shoot the 3. He shoots 32.8% and has converted 19 of his 58 attempts. The rest of the 3 point percentages are as follows:
3 Point Percentages:
Williams 32.8% (19-58)
Locke 36.6% (48-131)
Ellis 37.9% (22-58)
Faulkner 35.6% (16-45)
Cross 29.6% (21-71)
West 29.9% (20-67)
Again Cross is someone the Heels are familiar with. He spent his freshman season at Miami where he shot 40% from 3. He is known as a sharpshooter despite his poor shooting percent up to this point in the season.
Louisville doesn’t do a great job of defending the paint. Duke had 42 points in the paint, and 22 second chance points. Louisville lost the rebounding battle 34-47. This is an area Carolina should look to exploit.
The Heels matchup fairly well with the Cardinals. Bacot probably gets to bang in the post with Curry. Manek most likely gets to guard Williams which is the biggest mismatch. Hellems took advantage of Manek from behind the arc on Saturday as Manek was forced to play off of him to protect against the drive. Williams isn’t nearly the threat that Hellems is from behind the line. Hellems has double the attempts, but it’s still something to watch for. Black gets the assignment on Davis. Love gets to matchup with Locke. Outside of the matchup with Williams, this is the other big matchup. Locke is their best 3 point shooter. Love will have his hands full, but its by no means a matchup he can’t handle. RJ Davis gets the assignment on Faulkner.
Trouble could also come when Louisville subs in forwards off their bench. Cross, Withers, and Williamson are all undersized compared to our bigs, but their game isn’t playing in the post. Depending on our rotation Black, Johnson or Mckoy could all see time guarding these guys as well as our traditional bigs.
Considering the amount of guys that Louisville plays, I doubt foul trouble will be a problem on their end. With our shorter rotation, it will be crucial that we (especially our bigs) stay out of foul trouble. Bacot should add another double double if he stays out of foul trouble. I’m not sure we can replicate the 3 point shooting success that we had on Saturday, so we have to play through Bacot. We can’t get happy throwing up 3’s. It didn’t work out well against Wake Forest or Miami. The first 4 minutes will be a huge indicator of how this game is going to go. We haven’t been able to respond to teams punching us in the mouth right out of the gate. Throwing up 3’s to start the game is not going to be a great way to make sure that doesn’t happen. Get the ball down low and drive. Dribble penetration will lead open 3’s, not the dribble step backs our guards have the habit of forcing up. Those shots have a high degree of difficulty. It’s great when they are going in, but it’s not something we can rely on. Work the ball around. 3’s are good when they come off a drive and kick and; therefore, are open, good shots.
We looked good on the break against State. Louisville averages less fast break points than we do. Davis did a good job of controlling the pace against State. Not turning the ball helps that a lot as well. As always, valuing the basketball gives us a better chance to win. Hopefully our guards can build off a game where they looked to be in total control.
Louisville is currently a middle of the road ACC team. We have to beat teams that are behind us in the standings. You can’t expect to compete in the ACC without winning tough road games. This will be another tough environment.
Just to do some conference standings math… We are 1 game out of first place. If we win then we will sit at 8-3. Notre Dame and Duke both sit at 7-2 and they play this week. That means one of those teams will fall to 7-3 and the other will be 8-2. Both teams currently sit at half a game back of Miami who is 8-2.
If we lose both games this week then we fall to 7-5. Wake Forest sits at 7-4. FSU sits at 6-4 and UVA is 5-6. If we go 1-1 then we sit at 8-4. If we win both games then we sit at 9-3.
Bottom line, this feels like another must win game with a matchup with Dook looming on Saturday.
Latest KENPOM ratings: UNC is 34th, Louisville is 119th
Latest NET rankings: UNC is 37th, Louisville is 121th
THINGS TO WATCH FOR:
Rotation (The rotation continues to be different each game. Johnson was once again the first man off the bench and he shined. Mckoy only saw garbage minutes. Essentially Walton and Johnson were as far as our rotation went on Saturday until garbage time. Thankfully we are back to playing a normal schedule.)
Break/Secondary Break (Our guards looked great pushing the ball against State who is usually a team that likes to run. We outscored the Wolfpack 25-11 in fast break points. I don’t know if we put up 25 fast break points again but look for a continued emphasis on controlling the tempo.)
Post Play (Duke destroyed the Cardinals in the paint and on the boards. We may not be the rebounding teams of years past, but offensive rebounds are still a huge strength of ours. We need to feed Bacot and convert around the basket.)
Effort, Energy, Toughness (We haven’t really seen this on the road yet this season. Georgia Tech and Boston College don’t really count. Can we finally respond in a tough away environment? It’s a huge mental thing with this team. To be competitive in the ACC, we have to get over this hump.)
UPDATE MALIK WILLIAMS WILL MISS THE GAME DUE TO AN INDEFINITE SUSPENSION FOR NOT MEETING TEAM STANARDS
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