GAME INFO:
March 17, 2022
4:30pm Tip Off
Dickies Arena (Capacity: 13,300)
Fort Worth, TX
TV: TBS
UNC is given a 61.4% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
UNC: 24-9 (15-5 in ACC)
Marquette: 19-12 (11-8 in Big East)
Last Time Out:
UNC: Lost in ACC Tournament Semifinals to Virginia Tech 59-72
Marquette: Lost in Big East Tournament Quarterfinals to Creighton 63-74
CAROLINA IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT:
• This is Carolina's 52nd appearance in the NCAA Tournament, which is the second most all-time (Kentucky 59).
• Carolina's six NCAA Tournament championships are the third most all-time.
• The Tar Heels won NCAA titles in 1957, 1982, 1993, 2005, 2009 and 2017.
• Carolina's 20 Final Fours are the most in NCAA Tournament history.
• The Tar Heels are the only team to play in the Final Four in each of the last eight decades: 1946, 1957, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1972, 1977, 1981, 1982, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2016 and 2017.
• Carolina has played in the second-most NCAA Tournament games (174) and has the second-most wins (126) and second-highest winning percentage (.724).
• Roy Williams won three NCAA titles and 79 NCAA Tournament games, second most all-time.
• Dean Smith won two NCAA titles and 65 NCAA Tournament games, third most all-time.
CAROLINA AS AN 8 SEED:
• Carolina is a No. 8 seed for the second year in a row and the fifth time overall (1990, 2000, 2013, 2021, 2022).
• The Tar Heels are 7-4 as an eight seed, including 3-1 in the first round.
• In 1990, Carolina beat No. 9 SW Missouri State and No. 1 Oklahoma in Austin before losing to No. 4 Arkansas in Dallas.
• In 2000, Carolina advanced to the Final Four, the lowest seed in its NCAA-record 20 trips to the Final Four (seeding began in 1979; UNC has reached the Final Four 13 times since the field was seeded). The Tar Heels beat Missouri, top-seed and third-ranked Stanford, Tennessee and Tulsa to advance to the Final Four, where it lost to Florida.
SERIES INFO:
• Carolina is 4-2 against the Golden Eagles, including 1-1 in NCAA Tournament games.
• Last season, the Tar Heels arranged to play Marquette on February 24 after UNC's game at Boston College, originally scheduled for February 23, was postponed due to Covid issues in the BC program. The Golden Eagles had last played on February 17 and was scheduled to be idle until the 27th.
• Marquette defeated the Tar Heels, 83-70, handing UNC its only home loss in 11 games last season.
• Seven of the eight players who played for Marquette in last season's game are not on the roster this season (Greg Elliott made three 3FGs, had four steals and scored 15 points). Five Tar Heels who played in last season's game will play in this game – Armando Bacot (three points, five rebounds in 13 minutes), Leaky Black (three points, two steals in 26 minutes), RJ Davis (11 points, two threes, four turnovers), Caleb Love (one point on 0-6 FG, seven assists) and Kerwin Walton (eight points, two threes).
• Dawson Garcia had a game-high 24 points and 11 rebounds for Marquette. He transferred to UNC and averaged 9.0 points and 5.5 rebounds in 16 games for the Tar Heels before returning home to Minnesota to help with several Covid-related illnesses in his family. More on Garcia later in the notes section.
• Prior to last season's game in Chapel Hill, the teams' most recent game was in 2011 in Newark, N.J., in the Sweet 16. Carolina beat the Golden Eagles, 81-63. Tyler Zeller led UNC with 27 points, 12 rebounds, four assists and three steals; John Henson had 14 points, 12 rebounds and five blocks; and Harrison Barnes scored 20 and grabbed seven offensive boards.
• The Tar Heels led that 2011 NCAA Tournament game, 40-15, at the half.
• In 1977, Al McGuire's Marquette Warriors defeated Dean Smith's Tar Heels, 67-59, in the national championship game at the Omni in Atlanta. That was the first time the schools had ever met.
If you want even more stats, check out this link: https://goheels.com/news/2022/3/15/mens-basketball-tar-heels-open-ncaa-play-thursday-vs-marquette.aspx
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (16.5 PPG)
Marquette: J. Lewis (17.1 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (12.5)
Marquette: J. Lewis (7.9)
Assists:
UNC: Love (3.8)
Marquette: T. Kolek (5.7)
The Tar Heels will face the Golden Eagles of Marquette in the first round of the NCAA tournament. March Madness is special and I'm glad it’s back. I personally just love college basketball (it also gives me something to do on a Friday when I'm less than motivated with the 9-5 but shhhhh).
I think we all still remember the game last year in Chapel Hill where we scheduled the game because we needed a game due to covid cancellations and then proceeded to get lit up by Dawson Garcia who is now a Tar Heel despite being away from the team due to a string of serious family illnesses. But this is a completely different Marquette team with a completely different coach.
Shaka Smart came over from Texas and has Marquette in the tournament in his first year at the helm. Carolina has struggled with Smart’s teams when he was at Texas, but that was under Roy Williams’ leadership. Hubert was obviously on the coaching staff so it’s not like he is unfamiliar with how Smart’s teams play. This is not an elite Marquette team by any means, but they play hard which is a trademark of any of Smart’s teams. They also play physically; another Shaka Smart trademark. Physicality, specifically with Carolina’s guards, has been a problem. That will be discussed a little further down.
Marquette has played a bunch of tournament teams this year which definitely contributed to them getting into the tournament at 19-12. They have wins over Illinois and Providence. They have beaten Villanova twice. They also have out-of-conference losses to Wisconsin and UCLA. In conference, they lost to UCONN twice and Creighton 3 times. In lieu of typing out all the scores in a bunch of random sentences, they are listed below:
Schedule notes:
67-66 win over Illinois
54-70 loss to St. Bonaventure
76-89 loss to Wisconsin
56-67 loss to UCLA
71-80 loss to Xavier
2 losses to to Uconn (70-78, 72-80)
3 losses to Creighton (69-75 2OT, 82-83, 63-74)
88-56 win over Providence, 63-65 loss
Two wins over Seton Hall (73-72, 73-63)
Two wins over Villanova (57-54, 83-73)
Marquette is battle tested and will have a 9-10 man rotation. Smart isn’t afraid to play a ton of guys, but the rotation noticeably lacks experience. 7 of their rotational guys are either freshman or redshirt freshmen with 3 redshirt freshmen in the starting lineup. The rotation is as follows:
STARTERS:
O. Prosper F (R-FR 6-8) (6)
J. Lewis F (R-FR 6-7) (29)
K. Kuath F (GR 6-10) (4)
T. Kolek G (R-FR 6-3) (9)
D. Morsell G (GR 6-5) (21)
BENCH:
D. Joplin F (FR 6-7) (1)
O. Ighodaro F (R-FR 6-9) (6)
K. Jones G (FR 6-4) (7)
S. Mitchell G (FR 6-2) (3)
G. Elliott G (R-JR 6-3) (6)
Obviously Justin Lewis headlines this team. He leads the team in scoring, double figure games, rebounds, and minutes. He has really excelled as a redshirt freshman. The low down on Lewis is that he is a good player but isn’t a great athlete. Marquette is a small team so while he plays the 3 position in the starting lineup he may end up as the 4 or 5 some. If Manek has to guard him some, it won’t be a make or break thing. I feel good about Leaky Black guarding him.
Behind Lewis in scoring is Morsell. Again double figure games are to the right of each player’s class and height. Morsell is a grad transfer from Maryland so he has plenty of experience. He was the Big Ten Defensive Player of the year for the 2020-21 season. His play and most likely his matchup with Love will be a big factor in the outcome of the game.
Kolek is a great passer and smart player. He is not a very efficient shooter.
Prosper and Kuath aren’t big time scorers and while Kuath has some height, he struggles against bigger forwards. He has a smaller frame at 215 lbs. This team doesn’t really play through their forwards anyway.
Off the bench, Marquette does have some guys who can score. Ighodaro, Jones, and Elliot are all very capable contributors off the bench. Elliot is definitely a guy to watch out for. He is lengthy and put up 15 points in the game last year. He has had multiple 20 point games off the bench. He is also their most experienced player off the bench.
Highlighted in the table above are the categories where the team’s are either close statistically or categories that are important to take note of. Marquette obviously outpaces Carolina in bench points. Marquette plays a ton of guys with guys that can score off the bench. Carolina’s rotation is short with the starters seeing the overwhelming majority of the minutes. Kerwin Walton has some NCAA tournament experience, but is a defensive liability. Justin Mckoy has tournament experience in his time with Virginia. I could see him getting more minutes in this game due to his increase in playing time the past 2 games. Puff Johnson was on the team that went to the tournament last year, but spent most of the year plagued with injuries. Those are the only real options I see off the bench for Carolina. Depth could be a problem in this game, but Carolina is definitely the more talented team.
Marquette is a balanced team in terms of minutes unlike the Heels. Lewis leads the team in minutes at 32.4 a game. Morsell and Kolek average 29 minutes. Prosper, Jones, Elliot, Kuath, Ighodaro average between 17-20 minutes a game. Mitchell averages 10.8 minutes. Joplin averages 6.8 minutes. Don’t expect the Golden Eagles to tire because it won’t happen. Lewis, Kolek, and Kuath have started every game. Morsell has started 30.
Don’t let me saying that Marquette isn’t an elite team fool you. They have still put up some good numbers in the Big East. They lead the Big East in effective field goal percentage at 54%. They also lead the league in defensive 3 point field goal percentage at 31.1%. They were also first in steals, turning teams over on 12% of their possessions. They were second in 3 point shooting percentage at 37%.
I will address each of those statistics, but let’s start with 3 point shooting. Marquette likes to shoot the 3. They run a lot of high ball screens early in their sets to try to free up shooters on the wings. Lewis and Morsell both shoot a respectable 35% from beyond the arc. Jones and Elliot shoot over 39% off the bench. Stop me if you have heard this before: “Carolina struggled to guard the 3 point line and they lost.” This game has the potential for that line to be written all over it. The Heels have to guard the 3 point line. Marquette lives and dies by the 3 (not dissimilar to Carolina really). The 3 point percentages for relevant players are listed below:
3 POINT PERCENTAGES:
Lewis 35.2% (56-159)
Morsell 35.5% (43-121)
Jones 39.6% (55-139)
Elliot 39.1% (34-87)
Kolek 28.2% (35-124)
Prosper 28.8% (15-52)
Joplin 29.3% (17-58)
Mitchell 35% (7-20)
Defensively, Marquette is a physical team. They get steals which leads to run outs. (see fast break point stats above). Their guards will initiate contact and get up into whoever they are guarding. This has been a problem for Love and Davis throughout the year and it’s something they have to be ready for. Love and Davis can’t go searching for fouls because they may not get them. This has lead to frustration for both guards in the past and has resulted in poor play because they take themselves out of the game mentally. Morsell is also a great defender as mentioned above. Love can’t let Morsell get into his head. I’m assuming that would be the matchup but the same thing applies to Davis. The Carolina guards have to stay level headed and they must value the basketball and be strong with it. Guard play will be a deciding factor in this game.
The good news for Carolina is that Marquette is not a good rebounding team. They have a negative rebounding margin. They rank 330th in offensive rebounding and 306th in defensive rebounding. What does this mean? Bacot should have an absolute field day and another double-double. Despite the new offensive system, rebounding is still one of Carolina’s strengths. The Heels need to go with what works and that will be getting the ball down low to Bacot. Bacot struggled with double teams against Virginia Tech and I would expect some of the same from Marquette. Virginia Tech decided to leave Black open to double Bacot. Black has made people pay in prior games but wasn’t able to be effective enough offensively for Virginia Tech to change their approach. Black needs to continue to look for his offense.
As mentioned above, guard play will play a huge factor in the overall outcome of this game. Love has not shot the ball well as of late. He has been a volume shooter, so while his percentages aren’t great he has still gotten his points. Love is a volume shooter because honestly his shot selection is not great. It needs to be better. He clearly lives and thrives in the big time moments down the stretch but can be kind of “meh” before then. Love needs to stay focused and engaged. Carolina is 13-0 when Love has 5 or more assists. Because of Love’s poor shot selection, the ball needs to be in RJ Davis’ hands the majority of the time. Davis has really taken on and taken over the main point guard duties. The team is more effective with him running the point and having Love play off the ball.
The only guy I really haven’t mentioned is Brady Manek. I think his experience is invaluable at this point in the season. He has played in the tournament while at Oklahoma and plays with a level head and an unmatched basketball IQ. Manek’s offensive versatility could be huge in this game.
It’s already a foregone conclusion that Leaky Black guards Justin Lewis to start the game. Maybe if someone else gets hot, he gets moved off of him. Again I feel good about Black when it comes to this matchup. Black is lengthy and is quicker than Lewis. Black’s experience is also an advantage. I think Love starts on Morsell and Davis starts on Kolek. Davis is again undersized but Kolek is more known as a passer than a shooter. I could see Bacot starting out on Prosper just because he is a bigger scoring threat than Kuath. I could also see Bacot starting on Kuath for that same reason. Bacot can’t get into foul trouble. Marquette will run a ton of guys in and out and Carolina can’t afford to spend a lot of time playing with Bacot on the bench. Still I say Bacot starts on Prosper and Manek starts on Kuath. Overall, Carolina matches up well with Marquette. Depending on if they decide to play defense of course.
The keys to the game are pretty much broken down in the above paragraphs but I will sum it up real quick below:
KEYS TO THE GAME
3 Point Defense (Marquette shoots a lot of 3’s. Carolina has struggled guarding the 3 point line at times not just this season but historically.)
Handling Physicality (Marquette plays physical. Their guards will get up into opposing guards. Love and Davis have struggled when opposing guards have been physical. How the Carolina guards handle this will be the single biggest factor.)
Love’s Shot Selection (It hasn’t been great. He leaves you scratching your head at times. There isn’t a shot he won’t take, for good or bad. Good shots and 5 or more assists are the keys. Good shots also lead to a better chance of getting an offensive rebound. Caleb Love is my X factor.)
Dominate the Boards (As mentioned above, good shots lead to a better chance of rebounding your misses. So the Heels must take good shots, but they also must crash the boards. I always say don’t get bored with easy. This should be an easy category to dominate and an easy way to score either through put backs under the basket or getting fouled. Carolina simply needs to do what it does best.)
Feed Bacot (Carolina has fallen in love with jacking up 3’s throughout the year. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn’t. Let’s not take the chance of it not working by jacking up bad shots. Get the ball down low to Bacot. Playing through him is still the best option. Don’t get bored with what works.)
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