GAME INFO:
January 18, 2022
7:00pm pm Tip Off
Watsco Center (Capacity: 7,972)
Coral Gables, FL
TV: ACCN
UNC is given a 57.9% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
UNC: 12-4 (4-1 in ACC)
Miami: 13-4 (5-1 in ACC)
Last Time Out:
UNC: Beat Georgia Tech 88-65
Miami: Lost at FSU 64-65
SERIES INFO:
UNC leads the all time series 26-8.
UNC is 10-6 against the Canes under Larranaga.
In the last meeting, UNC won 67-65 in Coral Gables on a driving layup by Andrew Platek with 3 seconds left.
Leaky Black had 16 points in the game including going 4-4 from behind the arc
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (17.4 PPG)
Miami: K. McGusty (18 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (11.2)
Miami: K. Mcgusty (5.9)
Assists:
UNC: Davis (3.8)
Miami: C. Moore (3.9)
Georgia Tech Notes
Armando Bacot had 29 points on 10-16 shooting, 9-9 FT, 12 rebounds, 3 TOs, 1 steal
RJ Davis had 21 points on 8-11 shooting, 4-6 from 3, 1-2 FT, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 TOS, 1 steal
Caleb Love had 14 points on 4-10 shooting, 3-5 from 3, 3-4 FT, 1 rebound, 3 assists, 6 TOs
Brady Manek had 11 points on 4-10 shooting, 2-5 from 3, 1-1 FT, 5 rebounds, 4 assists
Dawson Garcia had 4 points on 4-4 FT, 11 rebounds
TEAM STATS:
47.6% FG (30-63)
36% 3PT (9-25)
90.5% FT (19-21)
42 rebounds
20 assists
13 turnovers
1 block
3 steals
Held the league’s leading scorer (Devoe) to 2 points on 1-5 shooting, 0-2 from 3, 6 TOs
UNC delivered its second straight Smith Center beat down to an ACC opponent Saturday beating Georgia Tech 88-65. It was the RJ Davis show, scoring the first points of the game by way of a 3 pointer, until inevitably Bacot imposed his will. Tech just simply didn’t have anyone or anything for the big guy. There was clearly an emphasis on finishing strong at the rim, as Bacot had the first 6 dunk game since John Henson did it against Elon in 2011. Success breeds success and the more Bacot sees his work pay off, the harder he wants to work. He finished with 29 points and 12 rebounds for his 7th straight double double. He was also the first Tar Heel since Hansbrough to score 29+ points in consecutive games, the other two were Antawn Jamison and Hubert Davis. He should be favorite to win ACC player of the year and be named to an All American team. He doesn't deserve any less. Back to Davis. He was absolutely on fire while also finding ways to get his teammates involved. You know it is your night after his high arching, deep step back 3 over Usher near the end of the 1st half. He finished with 21 points and 6 assists on 4-6 from 3 and 8-11 from the field. Love had a decent game shooting the ball, 14 points on 3-5 from 3, but struggled with turning the ball over. He finished with 6 turnovers and 3 assists. One specific play I would like to mention. He did the turn the ball and then hustled back and attempted to block the Tech’s players dunk. The tech player made the dunk and went down hard on the play. Love was given a flagrant 1 for his efforts. Personally I don't agree, it should have just been a common foul. It sends a poor message. Love made a mistake and hustled back and attempted to make up for it. Granted he was late on his block attempt and the Tech player hit the floor hard but it was a clear play on the ball. Just because someone goes down hard doesn”t mean it's a flagrant foul. You had two guys running hard at the basket, these things happen. Manek finished with 11 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists. His ability to feed Bacot continues to impress me and their chemistry has evolved quite nicely as the season goes along. I hope he continues to start over Garcia, as the experience he brings is obvious. The UNC defense managed to hold the ACC’s second leading scorer, Michael Devoe, to just two points and 6 turnovers. Leaky Black did the majority of the work with some help from Love. Leaky Black is clearly our best defender and should be considered as the ACC defensive player of the year. McKoy got some extended minutes due to the absence of Anthony Harris and made some solid contributions. He has had two good straight games since returning from COVID and helps extend the rotation. Getting to see Puff Johnson finally see some playing time was exciting and I hope he can stay healthy. Even if he stays healthy, not sure how much he works into this year’s rotation but if he's anything like his brother he will have a terrific career. Unc had 20 assists against Tech and now has 39 assists in the past 2 games. You can tell they are playing more as a team and definitely seem to trust each other more. Hopefully that continues as they have a great chance to get some resume building wins going on the road against Miami and Wake. The Heels have now won all 4 of their ACC games by 15+ points, are undefeated at home and have now swept an ACC foe home and home every season that the league has existed, no other team can say that.
The Heels will get another chance at a solid win when they travel to Coral Gables on Tuesday night. The Heels are favored in this game despite Miami’s recent win at Duke. The Latest KENPOM ratings have the Heels at 24 and the Hurricanes at 85. North Carolina is 32 in the most recent NET ratings. Miami is 84th. The Hurricanes have a Quad 2 and 3 loss which is what is holding them back. They had early season losses to UCF and Dayton, and close games against Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Penn State, Lipscomb, and Fordham. Before their loss at Florida State, they had won 9 straight. Whereas all our ACC wins have been blowouts, Miami has been in a lot of close games. Their last 3 games have been decided by a combined 4 points. This includes a 1 point loss at FSU, a 2 point win at Duke, and a 1 point over Syracuse at home. They also have wins over Wake Forest, NC State, and Clemson.
Miami has an experienced starting lineup. They only start one lower classmen. That lower classmen would be Sophomore guard Isaiah Wong. Wong isn’t short on experience though as he was a fixture of the hurricanes in his freshman season. Their rotation is as follows:
STARTERS:
McGusty G (SR 6’ 5”)
Miller G (SR 6’ 7”)
Moore G ( SR 5’ 11”)
Wongs G (SO 6’ 3”)
Waardenburg F (SR 6’ 10”)
BENCH:
Walker F (SO 6’9”)
D. Gak F (JR 6’11”)
W. Poplar G (FR 6’5”)
B. Joseph G (FR 6’1”)
Their rotation has been pretty steady with the exception of Waardenburg missing a couple of games. Gak started in his place, but has played sparingly in other games. They play an 8-9 man rotation. Both the FSU and Duke games saw the Hurricanes featured a 9 man rotation, but only 7 players saw significant minutes. In the Duke game, Dak and Joseph each played around 5 minutes. In the FSU game, Dak and Polar only played 2 minutes each.
The Hurricanes got outrebounded by 14 against Duke and 12 against FSU. They forced Duke into 17 turnovers which led to 17 points. They also had 52 points in the paint. Miami relies on getting turnovers. When they don’t turn the other team over well their defense isn’t very good. Their opponents shot better than they do from 3 and they allow their opponents to shoot almost 46% from the field. Don’t turn the ball over against Miami and you have a pretty good chance to win.
Miami relies heavily on their starters and are led by McGusty and Wong. Both players have reached double figures in all but one game so far this season. Moore has 10 double digit games. Miller started off the season slow, but has come on as of late. He adds 6 double figure games. Waardenburg has 5. Walker has been their best contributor off the bench. He has 3 double figure games. Poplar has 1. All their starters are threats to score though and their starting lineup of 4 guards and 1 forward will present some matchup problems on the defensive end. Fun fact: McGusty played 2 seasons at Oklahoma with Manek before transferring to Miami.
McGusty is arguably the Canes best scorer. Black will most likely get this matchup after the job he did on Devoe. Love and Wong will be a fun matchup to watch. Well it will be fun as long as Love shows up. Love proved he can play defense when he helped shut down Devoe. Love is a great defender when he wants to be. He needs to keep Wong in front of him. Wong is shooting below 30% on the year from 3. Make him beat you from behind the line, not driving to the basket. Davis will be matched up on Moore. Davis is not at a size disadvantage with this match up but Kentucky’s PG wasn’t big either and he had his way with Davis. Again show up and slide your feet. Miller is listed as a guard at 6’7”. I would guess Manek would get the start over Garcia, but I honestly am not sure if I would want Manek or Bacot on Miller. Miller is a threat to shoot it from deep. He is 37.8% on the year from behind the arc with 45 attempts. With that being said, so is Waardenburg. Waardenburg shoots 38.7% with 31 attempts. Either way our bigs are going to have to guard the perimeter.
With the need for perimeter defense, this is a game where Justin Mckoy could again see extended minutes. He has had 2 solid back to back games with most of his impact being felt on the defensive side of the ball. If the other bigs struggle to guard the perimeter then Mckoy could be called on. It’s also a game that could lend itself to a smaller lineup. Again this is only if we struggle defensively. A smaller lineup would see Black at the 4.
Expect a heavy dose of Miami’s guards. Wong, Mcgusty, and Moore all average over 30 minutes a game. Miller averages over 25 minutes. Waardenburg averages of 25 as well. Walker, Joseph, and Poplar average between 10-15 minutes. Gak averages 5.
The importance of our bigs guarding the perimeter has already been mentioned. Whereas Wong isn’t a threat from deep according to his 3 PT percentage (he is shooting around 29% from behind the arc), Moore and McGusty are. Moore shoots 41.6% from 3. McGusty shoots 36.8%. Off the bench, Joseph shoots at a high percentage (56.3%) but has only 16 attempts. Our defense goes as our guards go. They need to continue to play aggressive yet smart on that end of the floor.
Bacot should have another big game as long as we feed him enough. He could also do a lot of damage just on the glass. Miami is not a good rebounding team. They have a negative rebounding margin and only collected 25 rebounds in their loss at FSU. I would expect Waardenburg to guard Bacot, but there hasn’t been a post player in the ACC that has been able to stop Bacot yet. Bacot has the size advantage weight wise. Miller will be on Manek which leaves Manek with a huge size advantage or if the Canes opt to have Miller guard Bacot that’s even better. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canes tried zone, but Georgia Tech tried a 1-3-1 that didn’t last long. We were able to shoot the Jackets out of that defense. Gak is the only player besides Waardenburg with any size, but he doesn’t see very many minutes. Our guards need to make an effort to get the ball into Bacot. Manek is our best entry passer right now. Love and Davis need to do a better job getting the ball into the post.
Miami had 52 points in the paint against Duke. Being able to get into the lane was a huge reason the Canes were able to pull off the upset. We need to contain dribble pentration and avoid overhelping when it does occur. Make them beat us from the perimeter, but that doesn’t mean those shots need to be wide open.
Miami is a good defensive team when they can get turnovers otherwise they aren’t. We need to execute our offensive and be patient. Love had 6 turnovers against Georgia Tech, so he needs to be smarter with the basketball in this game. Miami is at it’s best when it’s turning other teams at a high percentage. Limit turnovers and the Canes are a much more average team.
The last 2 games have been great effort wise specifically on the defensive end. The Heels are only allowing 65.6 points per game against ACC opponents. The one time a team scored over 65 points was when Notre Dame put up 78 in the only conference loss so far. Take care of business on the defensive end and the rest takes care of itself. The last 2 games were home games though so the Heels will need to be able to create their own energy in a hostile environment.
THINGS TO WATCH:
Rotation (The biggest question mark here is if we get Anthony Harris back. He was just listed as unavailable for the Georgia Tech game and he wasn’t on the bench. It was not mentioned if he was in covid protocol or not. Does Mckoy continue to see extended minutes?)
Not Loving the Turnovers (Love had 6 TOs against Georgia Tech as he was forcing things just a little bit. Teams know if they can get him to press then they can turn him over. We need a steady Caleb Love Tuesday night in Coral Gables. Miami thrives on turnovers. The team as a whole has to take care of the ball.)
Road Energy (The last road game didn’t go so well. The Heels lacked effort and energy in South Bend and the result was a loss. Carolina looked great in back to back home games, but it’s a little easier to be energized when the crowd is behind you. How do we create our own energy in Coral Gables?
Defensive effort (Pretty much already went over this above, but we are 4-0 in the ACC when holding opponents to 65 points or less. Our defense depends on our energy and effort. Every player is physically capable of playing great defense, it’s just a matter of if they want to. Do we see the same defensive intensity that we saw against Georgia Tech and UVA?)
Bacot is a Beast (Bacot is feeding off his own success. We need to continue to feed him in the post. Our guards need to more of an effort to make better entry passes. Feed the beast. Also look for Bacot to dominate on the boards against a bad rebounding team.)
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