GAME INFO:
December 1, 2021
9:15pm pm Tip Off
Dean Smith Center (Capacity: 21,750)
Chapel Hill, NC
TV: ESPN
UNC given a 58.3% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
UNC: 4-2
#24 Michigan: 4-2
Last Time Out:
UNC: Beat UNC Asheville 72-53
#24 Michigan: Beat Tarleton 65-54
SERIES INFO:
Series is tied 4-4
Last game was in 2019, a 64-73 loss
UNC has lost 2 straight in the series (2018,2019)
The infamous Chris Webber timeout led a Tar Heel national championship in 1993
This is the third time in five season that these teams will face each other in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (15.7 PPG)
Michigan: E. Brooks (15.7 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (8.7)
Michigan: H. Dickinson (8.2)
Assists:
UNC: Love (4.2)
Michigan: D. Jones (4)
The Tar Heels welcome the #24 ranked Wolverines to Chapel Hill on Wednesday night for the ACC-Big Ten challenge. This game had a lot of hype coming into the season, but it has simmered down a little with the early struggles of both teams. The Heels are now unranked after losses to 2 ranked opponents. Michigan has fallen all the way to 24th after losses to unranked Seton Hall and Arizona. Not sure how the math works out on that one, but it is what it is. Both teams come into the game 4-2 and are well rested. The Heels last played on November 23rd and Michigan last played on November 24th. This means each team had ample practice time to try to work the kinks. The Heels are 3-0 at home so far this season, and Michigan has yet to play an away game. Advantage Tar Heels on that one. The Dean Dome needs to be rocking, but the Heels have to give the crowd something to cheer about.
The win over UNC Asheville wasn’t the bounce back game we all expected it would be. It was the first game we “struggled” on offense. I put struggle in quotation marks because we still shot 49.1% from the field and 50% from 3. Turnovers are still an area of major concern. 18 turnovers against a bad UNC Asheville team leaves you scratching your head. The Heels only had one practice between the Tennessee game and the UNC Asheville game, so big improvements weren’t necessarily expected. Defense was marginally better, but UNC Asheville also missed a lot of open shots. Pember had 2 points on 1-9 from the floor and 0-6 from 3 and all of that wasn’t because of good defense. Again marginal improvements, but UNC Asheville had an off night.
The Tar Heels didn’t participate in a thanksgiving tournament this year which realistically has given them plenty of practice time. Could say the same for Michigan, but I digress. Hopefully the “break” will give this team some renewed energy and newly found chemistry. The biggest problem with this team is mental and this was Hubert’s first chance to right the ship in that regard. There was an offensive set in the UNC Asheville game where Garcia decided to take his defender one on one and drove into a double team. You can visibly see how frustrated Love and Davis are that Garcia just decided not to run the set that Hubert called. If you listened to the post game press conferences then you heard a lot of the players talk about needing to play as a team. Manek’s press conference is fantastic by the way. Listen to/watch it if you can. The guy gets it. The open selfishness and having players having to talk about playing as a team is a reason for concern. But the first step to fixing a problem is acknowledging that you have one, so step one is complete. Let’s see if these guys can come together as a team against Michigan.
It may be a little early in the season for this, but this game seems like a must win. It would be a win against a ranked opponent and is now our best shot to get one such win in non conference play. UCLA is going to be tough to beat come December. Plus we need to build some momentum before our first conference game against Georgia Tech on Sunday.
We matched up pretty well against the Wolverines. Their starting lineup is more experienced but they bring a lot of youth off the bench. It’s no coincidence that two young teams have the same main struggles. Each team turns the ball over a lot and has a negative turnover margin. Michigan actually averages more turnovers than assists. Michigan will play a 8-9 man rotation. Starters and bench players are as follows:
Starters:
B. Johns Jr F (SR 6-8)
C. Houstan F (FR 6-8)
H. Dickinson C (SO 7-1)
D. Jones G (SR 6-1)
E. Brooks G (SR 6-1)
Bench:
T. Williams F (SO 6-7)
M. Diabate F (FR 6-11)
F. Collins G (FR 6-1)
A. Nunez G (SR 6-6)
K. Bufkin G (FR 6-4)
It’s worth noting that Nunez only played 3 minutes against Tarleton and Bufkin didn’t play. Brooks is the only player that has scored in double figures every game. Dickson has scored in double figures in 5 out of the 6 games. Houston has scored in double figures in 3 games, Jones in 2 games, Diabate in 2 games, and Williams in 1. Brooks and Dickinson are the only 2 players to average in double figures. We have 5 players averaging double figures for comparison.
Brooks leads the team in minutes with 34.8 and Houstan is close behind at 33 minutes per game. Dickinson averages 29.8 minutes and Jones averages 27. They have 5 other guys that average over 10 minutes per game (Bufkin, Collins, Diabate, Johns Jr, Williams).
Michigan struggles to score, but both Brooks and Jones shoot 42.9% from 3. There is a drastic dropoff from there though. The next best 3 point shooter is Williams at 28.6%. The Wolverines have only put up 80 points once (win over Buffalo) and have scored in the 60s 3 times (losses against Seton Hall and Arizona, Win over Tarleton). They currently rank 140th in points per game. They have held their opponents under 60 points twice (win against Prairie View, win against Tarleton).
Michigan relies on their defense. They are 21st in 3pt field goal percentage defense and 33rd in opponent true shooting percentage. Expect a slow paced game. Michigan is ranked 242nd out of 358 teams in possessions per game. We are 45th by comparison. The only reason this may be a faster paced game is because both teams turn the ball over at a high rate. We are 130th in turnovers per possessions (17.7%) and Michigan is 275th (21.4%). Michigan is turning the ball over on more than a fifth of their possessions. This could be a very sloppy game. Michigan relies pretty heavily on freshmen and some of the sloppy play can be contributed to that. They are led by their senior guard Eli Brooks though. I will get back to him in a minute.
In their loss to Arizona, Michigan was outrebounded 29-34, lost the points in the paint battle 30-54 and had 15 turnovers to 8 assists. In their win against Tarleton, they had 21 turnovers to 14 assists. Those struggles look eerily familiar.
Michigan is led by Brooks in the backcourt and Dickinson in the frontcourt. Brooks is going to be a challenging matchup for any of our guards. He is a senior who shoots the ball well from all over the court. And oh yeah you probably shouldn’t foul him either because he shoots 90.9% from the free throw line. Brooks could have a big night if our guards don’t step up. Expect Love to get the assignment on him out of the gate. Again if Love can’t keep him in front then it’s going to be a long night. RJ Davis probably gets the assignment on Jones. Michigan starts 2 6’8” guys which leaves us a little bit of a disadvantage, but being that Houstan is a little more of a threat the 6’6” black might start off on him. I would honestly expect Manek to start, but I have said that so many times to only have Garcia start that I don’t even know how defense is being graded at this point. We can take several approaches when it comes to Dickinson. We can put Bacot on him because he is a better overall defender and let Manek or Garcia pick up Johns Jr. or we can put Manek or Garcia on Dickinson to avoid Bacot getting into foul trouble like he did against Purdue. Either way all these guys need to stay out of foul trouble. None were able to do so against Purdue and that was a factor down the stretch. Michigan also has 6’11” diabate coming off the bench.
If Love or Davis can’t keep their guards in front expect to see Harris a lot. Harris outside of Black is probably our best on the ball defender.
Turnovers will be crucial in a game that could see fewer possessions. Michigan is a sound defensive team that struggles offensively, we can’t let them get going offensively by giving them free run outs and possessions off of turnovers. It’s a team completely capable of scoring, but just hasn’t so far this season. Every team, with the exception of UNC Asheville, has had great offensive games against our defense. We can’t let a struggling team find its footing on the offensive end. The formula is simple: Take care of the ball and defend. Win. Be careless with the basketball and refuse to defend. Lose.
THINGS TO WATCH FOR:
Getting Walton going (We need to get Walton going on offense. Maybe try running some set plays for him. Designing a play for Walton to shoot a 3 is a good shot)
Turnovers (we can’t continue to turn the ball over at such a high rate. This game is as good a game as ever to get that figured out)
Play a complete game (This team has struggled to put together 2 halves of basketball this year with struggles specifically in the first half. We can’t keep coming out flat)
Defensive rotation (I have seen screenshots of defensive sets where only one player was in the correct position. Overhelping is killing us. Did this get worked on?)
Communication (maybe this should be listen for, but anyway players have said they need to communicate better on defense. Maybe that is contributing to the poor defense off screens. Does ball screen defense get better?)
Defensive attitude (keeping your man in front of you is a mindset and an attitude. Do these guys have the mental fortitude to have that attitude? Also playing flat footed doesn’t help either)
Also Dickie V will be on the call for this one. Yes his voice is annoying and he tends to bandwagon with whatever teams are playing well, but hey at least he knows what he is talking about. At least he knows the game. Remember the crappy ACC Network guys we have gotten stuck with before complaining about Dickie V. Kick cancer’s ass Dickie V!
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