GAME INFO:
February 26, 2022
2:00pm Tip Off
PNC Arena (Capacity: 19,722)
Raleigh, NC
TV: ESPN
UNC is given a 69.4% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
UNC: 20-8 (12-5 in ACC)
NC State: 11-17 (4-13 in ACC)
Last Time Out:
UNC: Beat Louisville 70-63
NC State: Lost to Boston College 61-69
SERIES INFO:
• The Tar Heels lead the series, 162-79, winning 34 of the last 39 and 51 of the last 63 games against the Wolfpack.
• UNC is 67-47 at NC State, including 17-5 in PNC Arena. Carolina also has four NCAA Tournament wins (two each in 2008 and 2016) for a 21-5 overall record at PNC Arena.
• Carolina had won seven straight games at NC State prior to a 79-76 NC State win on 12/22/20.
• Carolina rallied from a 17-point deficit in the first half to pull within a point at 63-62, fell behind again by 13, cut the lead to two with 10 seconds to play and had two three-point attempts in the final seconds that could have tied the game. UNC had been on a 9-0 run, but missed its final seven field goal attempts over the last 2:19.
• Armando Bacot (16 points on 7 of 9 from the floor) led UNC in scoring.
• NC State made eight threes, while the Tar Heels were 2 for 12 from three-point range.
There is some more cool stats if you want to check them out https://goheels.com/news/2022/2/25/mens-basketball-mbb-heads-to-raleigh-for-saturday-matinee-vs-wolfpack.aspx
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (15.9 PPG)
NC State: D. Seabron (18 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (12.3)
NC State: D. Seabron (8.6)
Assists:
UNC: Love (3.8)
NC State: D. Seabron (3.2)
Louisville Notes
Brady Manek had 17 points on 6-12 shooting, 3-9 from 3, 2-2 FT, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 TOs, 1 block, 2 steals
Caleb Love had 16 points on 6-14 shooting, 1-7 from 3, 3-3 FT, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 7 TOs, 1 block, 1 steal
RJ Davis had 16 points on 5-11 shooting, 2-5 from 3, 4-4 FT, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 3 steals
Armando Bacot had 12 points on 6-8 shooting, 15 rebounds, 1 assist, 4 TOs
Leaky Black had 7 points on 3-5 shooting, 1-2 from 3, 2 rebounds, 1 block
49.1% FG (26-53)
28% 3PT (7-25)
84.6% FT (11-13)
32 rebounds
12 assists
13 turnovers
3 blocks
9 steals
The team had 13 turnovers, Caleb Love had 7 of them
Love and Davis combined to go 3-12 from 3 but went 7-7 from the free throw line
Bacot picked up his 21st double-double of the season
Scored only 2 bench points, have 5 bench points in the last 2 games
It wasn’t necessarily pretty but Carolina got another win against Louisville. A win is a win and that is all Carolina needs to focus on right now. The game was close the entire way until Carolina was able to make some crucial plays down the stretch highlighted by maybe the prettiest play of the season. Davis drove, Manek cut to the basket, and then dumped it off to Bacot for the dunk with the shot clock winding down. This team is so much better when Love and Davis play down hill. Both teams were content jacking up 3’s for most of the game. The game changed when Carolina’s guards got down hill. That isn’t a coincidence. Manek paced the Heels early and Bacot added another very quiet double double. Leaky Black had another Leaky Black type performance and Davis was solid.
Love made some plays down the stretch but he has to take care of the ball better. The team had 13 turnovers, Love had 7 of them. To make the math real simple, that’s over half of the team’s total. He has got to make better decisions and value the basketball more. The bench has also been a non factor the past 2 games, combining for 5 total points. And yes I know HD is playing the starters a lot especially in the second half. Luckily the Heels have had almost a week to prepare for NC State.
State played on Wednesday night where they fell to Boston College. The Wolfpack have lost 7 of their last 8 with their only win being at Georgia Tech. Their other 3 ACC wins include at Virginia Tech and Louisville and they have a home win over UVA. They have only 4 wins over their last 19 games.
The Wolfpack allowed the Eagles to shoot over 50% from the field and had 18 turnovers to only 8 assists. Smith had 21 points and Seabron had 20. Hellems only had 8.
Hellems and Smith were both very effective in the first matchup. Hellems had 25 points and went 5-9 from 3. He pulled up over Manek several times. Smith exploded for 34 points on 10-21 shooting, and went 3-9 from 3. He did a lot of damage from the free throw line going 11-13.
Black did an outstanding job on Seabron. He held Seabron to 2 points on 1-6 shooting. The game was never close. Love and Davis combined to go 7-10 from 3 and had 9 assists to just 2 turnovers. Carolina shot over 50% from the floor and from 3. The Heels probably ran the break the best they have all year in that game going for 25 fast break points. The bench saw extended minutes and contributed 22 points. The rest of the stats from the previous matchup are below.
NC State Previous Game Notes
Caleb Love had 21 points on 6-16 shooting, 4-6 from 3, 5-5 FT, 5 assists, 1 TO, 2 steals
Armando Bacot had 18 points on 5-10 shooting, 8-10 FT, 13 rebounds, 1 TO, 6 blocks, 1 steal
RJ Davis had 17 points on 6-8 shooting, 3-4 from 3, 2-4 FT, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 TO, 1 steal
Brady Manek had 17 points on 6-8 shooting, 5-7 from 3, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 TO, 1 block, 2 steals
Leaky Black had 5 points on 2-4 shooting, 1-3 from 3, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 TOs, 1 block
Puff Johnson had 8 points on 3-5 shooting, 1-2 from 3, 1-2 FT, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 TO, 1 block
Dontrez Styles had 6 points on 3-4 shooting, 4 rebounds
Kerwin Walton had 5 points on 2-5 shooting, 1-4 from 3, 2 rebounds
TEAM STATS:
54.8% FG (34-62)
55.6% 3PT (15-27)
70.8% FT (17-24)
39 rebounds
17 assists
12 turnovers
9 blocks
7 steals
25 fast break points (most of year)
22 bench points
6 different Tar Heels hit a 3 pointer
Love and Davis combined for 9 assists and just 2 TOs
Held Seabron to 2 points on 1-6 shooting
Bacot became the 79th Tar Heels to reach 1,000 career points
I wouldn’t expect a similar performance Saturday afternoon. Carolina played just about as good as possible in the only game that has resulted in biscuits. State may be at the bottom of the ACC, but Raleigh is still a rather annoying place to play if you’re Carolina. State has nothing to lose and handing us a loss would be like winning the national championship for them this year. It’s also State’s senior night (or day) where they will be honoring Hellems and Allen who are both major factors in the rotation. This game is by no means going to be a cake walk. Wake Forest handed Carolina a gift by losing to Clemson. Win the games that are supposed to be Ws and that would mean Carolina would be the 4th seed with a double bye in the ACC tournament. The State game and Syracuse games are must wins. State is currently a Q3 game.
The previous matchup was the only game where Seabron didn’t score in double figures and the key to winning this game will be to limit one of their “big 3.” And by big 3 I mean Seabron, Hellems, and Smith. That is where the majority of State’s scoring comes from. Black shut down Seabron in the previous matchup and it led to a blowout win despite big games from Smith and Hellems. Stop one of those guys and you give yourself a good chance to win. Their rotation is pretty much unchanged since the first matchup and it’s below:
STARTERS:
E. Dowuona F (SO 6-11) (2)
J. Hellems F (SR 6-7) (19) [3]
T. Smith G (FR 6-4) (20) [5]
D. Seabron G (R-SO 6-7) (27) [6]
C. Morsell G (JR 6-3) (8) [1]
BENCH:
J. Gibson F (SO 6-10) ( [1])
C. Hayes G (SO 6-3) (12) [2]
B. Pass G (FR 6-0)
T. Allen G (R-SR 6-1) (4) [2]
E. Ross F (FR 6-9)
They play an 8-9 man rotation with the 9th man seeing limited minutes at times. The total number of double figure games for each player is in parentheses to the right of their class and height. The number of double figures games since the first meeting is in brackets. Smith and Seabron have been their most consistent scorers and they have gotten some help from Hayes and Allen off the bench. This team has struggled to find consistent scoring outside of the big 3 and their defense hasn’t helped. Opponents shoot a better percentage from the field and from 3 than they do. State relies on steals on defense.
Not unlike Carolina, one can expect to see a heavy dose of the starters led by Seabron. He leads the team in minutes per game at 36.1. Smith and Hellems are the other players that average over 30 minutes a game. Morsell, Hayes, and Dowuona average between 20-25. Allen and Gibson average between 10-15 Pass and Ross average between 5-10. Ross has only played in 14 games.
State shoots 33.6% from 3 so they aren’t a great 3 point shooting team, but they average the almost same number of makes a game that we do. The biggest threat and biggest problem in this area is Hellems. He shoots 39.2% from 3 and one of our bigs will be matched up on him. Hellems is undersized at 6’7” so he does most of his work out on the perimeter or driving to the basket. Behind Hellems, Morsell shoots 37.5% with significantly less attempts. Smith leads the team in attempts and shots at a 37.3% clip. Take note of Seabron’s average and number of attempts. He isn’t really comfortable in his outside shot just yet. He does almost all of his damage by getting to the basket. The rest of the 3 point percentages are below.
3 Point Percentages:
Seabron 23.7% (9-38)
Smith 37.3% (79-212)
Hellems 39.2% (58-148)
Morsell 37.5% (30-80)
Hayes 21.7% (20-92)
Allen 33.3% (19-57)
Pass 25.9% (7-27)
Seabron has turned himself into one of the better players in the ACC in his sophomore season despite how poorly State is playing as a team. Black will get the assignment on him again. I would expect Black to sub out when Seabron goes out. Seabron will be playing with a chip on his shoulder after Black shut him down in the first matchup. I think Love probably gets Smith. Smith had a monster game the first game, but the Wolfpack couldn’t find scoring outside of him and Hellems, so it wasn’t a huge deal that he dropped 34. The defense on him will have to be much better this game. Davis gets Morsell. This is again another matchup that leaves Davis undersized. Morsell shoots 37.5% from 3. Davis will have to play him close. Bacot gets dowuona who is not a huge threat to score. Advantage Bacot in every aspect for that matchup. Manek most likely gets Hellems which presents a problem as we saw in the first game. Hellems is a stretch 4 who is undersized so he works out on the perimeter. He shoots it well from deep and is quicker than Manek off the dribble. He went 5-9 from 3 in the first game. Can’t play him too close or he will blow by but can’t play too far off or he will pull up for 3. This will once again be a tough matchup all game. Manek has to do a better job of containing Hellems because I don’t think Black holds Seabron to just 2 points again.
Bacot feasted in the last matchup in every way possible. He racked up 18 points and went for another double double. He also had 6 blocks. Dowuona has struggled to guard the post all year. Carolina needs to get the ball into Bacot. There has been too much settling for 3’s in the past couple of games. The key to the first matchup was Davis and Love driving the lane. Drives will leave Bacot open on the block as the defense collapses. I would expect another big game from Bacot. State just doesn’t have any real good options to slow him down, but it will be up to the Carolina guards to make an effort to get him the ball.
State has the ability to run as they rely on steals. The Heels controlled the pace and outran them in the first matchup. Controlling the pace will be critical in the second matchup as well. State is turnover prone so that will provide opportunities for the Heels to get out and run. Those opportunities just can’t also be given to the Wolfpack. The Carolina guards need to take care of the basketball. Love is kinda enemy #1 there. As is the usual for bubble teams, games like this are must wins.
Latest KENPOM Ratings: UNC is 42nd, NC State is 130th
Latest NET Rankings: UNC is 41st, NC State is 137th
THINGS TO WATCH:
Rotation (The only real question is who comes off the bench first. The rotation has been Styles, Walton, and Johnson for the past couple of games. With all of those guys seeing limited minutes. Mckoy is available and was available last game but didn’t play. With 4 days between games expect most of the starters to go the distance.)
Playing Through the Post (Carolina has been way too content jacking up 3’s the past couple of games. State’s post defense isn’t good and they have limited guys to throw at Bacot. The ball has to go down low and Bacot has to be strong when he gets it. I would expect another big game from Bacot if the guards make an effort to get him the ball.)
Hostile Environment (State has had a really bad year even by their standards. They sit at the bottom of the ACC standings, but it is senior night (or day). I would still expect a pretty big crowd in PNC arena on Saturday afternoon. Raleigh is a nasty place to play if you are the guys in Carolina blue. If dickie V thinks our student section saying “F*** Coach K” was bad then he should hear the stuff State’s student section says to our guys. How do our guys respond to that? I’m looking at you Caleb Love. He was chirping at the Virginia Tech student section at the end of that game.)
Containing the “Big 3” (State has 3 main scoring options: Seabron, Hellems, and Smith. Black limited Seabron in the first matchup while Hellems and Smith had big games. Limit one of them and that gives you a pretty good shot at winning.)
Play with a Sense of Desperation (Still not talking about panic, i’m talking about playing with a sense of urgency. Playing like you know the opposing team is going to give you it’s best shot and you leave everything out on the floor. No lapses in energy or effort. We have to have the “we have to win this game mindset” for the full 40 minutes. A team with nothing to lose is a dangerous team to play and State has nothing to lose. Carolina needs to take care of business with, once again, it’s tournament hopes on the line.)
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