GAME INFO:
January 29, 2022
2:00pm Tip Off
Dean Smither Center (Capacity: 21,750)
Chapel Hill, NC
TV: ACCN
UNC is given a 82.8% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
UNC: 14-6 (6-3 in ACC)
NC State: 10-11 (3-7 in ACC)
Last Time Out:
UNC: Beat Boston College 58-47
NC State: Lost at Notre Dame 65-73
SERIES INFO:
• The Tar Heels lead the series, 161-79, winning 33 of the last 38 and 50 of the last 62 games against the Wolfpack.
• UNC is 79-23 vs. the Pack in Chapel Hill, including 28-7 at the Smith Center.
• The Tar Heels have won three in a row and 16 of 18 at home against NC State.
• Carolina beat NC State, 86-76, on 1/23/2021 in the most recent game between the schools in the Smith Center. The Tar Heels shot 54.8% from the floor and four freshmen scored in double figures (for the first time since 2007). Armando Bacot led UNC with 17 points.
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (16.3 PPG)
NC State: D. Seabron (19 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (12.1)
NC State: D. Seabron (9.3)
Assists:
UNC: Love (3.4)
NC State: D. Seabron (3.5)
Boston College Notes
Caleb Love had 16 points on 5-17 shooting, 2-4 from 3, 4-6 FT, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 1 TO, 1 steal
RJ Davis had 13 points on 4-9 shooting, 1-5 from 3, 4-4 FT, 7 rebounds, 3 TOs
Leaky Black had 8 points on 2-3 shooting, 1-1 from 3, 3-4 FT, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks
Brady Manek had 7 points on 2-8 shooting, 1-4 from 3, 2-2 FT, 6 rebounds, 3 TOs, 1 block, 1 steal
Armando Bacot had 6 points on 1-10 shooting, 4-6 FT, 18 rebounds, 3 blocks
Kerwin Walton had 6 points on 1-4 shooting, 1-2 from 3, 3-3 FT, 2 rebounds, 1 TO
TEAM STATS:
29.1% FG (16-55)
35.3% 3PT (6-17)
80% FT (20-25)
44 rebounds
7 assists
8 turnovers
7 blocks
3 steals
Only 7 assists on only 16 made field goals.
Black had 5 of those assists.
Good & Bad History
Leaky Black became the 5th Tar Heel with 400 rebounds, 200 assists, 100 steals, and 50 blocks. He joins Worthy, Lynch, Noel, and Green. Hate on Leaky all you want, but that is pretty impressive company and is quite an achievement considering only 4 other players have done it.
Carolina has played 3143 games in its history. The 29.1% shooting percentage was the lowest shooting percentage in a win. EVER.
The Heels were able to grit out a victory against Boston College on Wednesday and have so far done what they needed to during this home stand. The Virginia Tech game wasn’t pretty but provided a balanced scoring attack. The Boston College game was just flat out ugly, but a win is a win. You aren’t going to shoot 29% and win many games. That was the lowest shooting percentage in a win in Carolina Basketball history.
The starters looked gas at the end of the Virginia Tech game and they again looked gassed against Boston College. The few bright spots included only 8 turnovers, shooting 80% from the charity strike and Puff Johnson. His role continues to expand and rightfully so. Johnson gets it and even if his offensive abilities haven’t caught up with him yet he understands that he can control the energy, effort, and toughness he brings to the floor. He provided a much needed spark.
The absence of Harris and Garcia is very obvious. Harris is out for the season due to academics and it sounds like Garcia’s family is dealing with a serious family illness. There is no timetable for his return, if he returns. His focus is currently on his family. Life is bigger than basketball. I’m not really a sending prayers over social networks type of person but prayers up for the Garcia family. Focus on what’s important.
The Heels now turn their attention to the rivalry game that isn’t really a rivalry game but it’s still a game you hate to lose. Roy will be honored during the game which is the absolute best way to taunt the Wolfpack. Roy owned State. The 1982 national championship team will also be honored. I appreciate the effort to manifest as much energy as possible as almost every game seems like a must win at this point. The Heels have an over 80% chance to win this game, but don’t be fooled by that percentage. That’s a really high percentage. This game will not be a cake walk especially without Garcia. State presents some challenges especially on the defensive side of the ball.
This definitely hasn’t been the year the Wolfpack were hoping for. Manny Bates got hurt at the very beginning of the season. They have had close games against Colgate, Texas Southern and Louisiana Tech. They have a 4 OT win over Nebraska and they collapsed against Purdue. They had a double digit second half lead against Purdue only to throw it away and lose in overtime. They have back to back losses to Richmond and Wright State. They only have 3 ACC wins. They have victories at Virginia and Louisville as they split their season series with both teams. They have a home win against UVA. They also have losses to Miami, FSU, Clemson, Duke and Notre Dame.
State has struggled against teams that have good bigs. State's post defender options are all underclassmen since Hellems is more of a stretch. ND’s Laszewski, Duke’s Williams, VT’s Aluma and Louisville’s Curry have all had double-doubles against the Wolfpack. You can also add in Clemson’s Hall with 20 points and FSU’s Osborne with 19 points. This is one of the reasons I feel better about the matchup. So let’s look at State’s rotation.
STARTERS:
E. Dowuona F (SO 6-11) (2)
J. Hellems F (SR 6-7) (16)
T. Smith G (FR 6-4) (15)
D. Seabron G (R-SO 6-7) (21)
C. Morsell G (JR 6-3) (7)
BENCH:
J. Gibson F (SO 6-10)
C. Hayes G (SO 6-3) (10)
B. Pass G (FR 6-0)
T. Allen G (R-SR 6-1) (2)
E. Ross F (FR 6-9)
Dowuona took over for Bates when he got injured. He has some height, but is only a sophomore and has struggled defending the post so far this season. The Wolfpack will play 9 guys, but only 7 players will see significant minutes. The other 2 members of the rotation will see around 5 minutes. Smith is currently starting but didn’t start to begin the year. They have rotated Smith, Hayes, Morsell and Allen in and out of the starting lineup. Seabron and Hellems are the only players to start every game. Allen has only averaged 5.5 minutes in the past 3 games as his role has shrunk recently.
Seabron has reached double digits in every game. Hellems and Smith are the biggest offensive threats besides Seabron. Again the numbers on the right side is the number of games each player has reached double figures.
State has 5 potential rotational players (Smith, Gibson, Hayes, Pass, and Allen) that are from NC. Seabron is from just over the border in Norfolk, VA. These games are usually games where those guys play with a little extra chip on their shoulder. Carolina is higher up in the recruiting hierarchy so to speak. There may be some extra motivation that these guys weren’t recruited by Carolina.
Not surprisingly Seabron leads the team in minutes at 36.8 per game. The other offensive threats (Hellems and Smith) are the other players averaging over 30. Dowuona, Morsell and Hayes average over 20. Allen and Gibson average over 10. Pass and Ross average between 5-10. Seabron, Hellems, Smith, Hayes, and Dowuona are the only players to have played in all 21 games.
State shoots 33.3% from 3 so they aren’t a great 3 point shooting team, but they average the same number of makes a game that we do. The biggest threat and biggest problem in this area is Hellems. He shoots 41.1% from 3 and one of our bigs will be matched up on him. Hellems is undersized at 6’7” so he does most of his work out on the perimeter or driving to the basket. This feels like the X factor matchup. And this is where Garcia’s absence is really felt. Behind Hellems, Morsell shoots the same percentage with significantly less attempts. Take note of Seabron’s average and number of attempts. He isn’t really comfortable in his outside shot just yet even though half his makes have come in the last couple of games. He does almost all of his damage by getting to the basket. The rest of the 3 point percentages are below.
3 Point Percentages:
Hellems 41.1% (46-112)
Smith 35.9% (56-156)
Morsell 41.1% (23-56)
Seabron 25% (8-32)
Hayes 21.6% (16-74)
Seabron has turned himself into one of the better players in the ACC in his Sophomore season. Black will most likely get the assignment on him. Seabron is a bigger guard at 6’7” so this is a tough matchup. We don’t really have another good defender to match up with him. It may be a situation where Black subs out when Seabron goes out. I guess you could put Johnson on him. He is listed at 6’8” but is he a good enough defender? McKoy is also an option but I don’t think he is quick enough to keep up with Seabron. Love probably gets the freshmen Smith. His defense will play a significant role in the outcome of the game with Smith being one of their primary offensive weapons. Davis gets Morsell. This is again another matchup that leaves Davis undersized. Morsell shoots 41.1% from 3. Davis will have to play him close. Bacot gets dowuona who is not a huge threat to score. Advantage Bacot in every aspect for that matchup. Manek most likely gets Hellems which presents a problem as stated above. Hellems is a stretch 4 who is undersized so he works out on the perimeter. He shoots it well from deep and is quicker than Manek off the dribble. Can’t play him too close or he will blow by but can’t play too far off or he will pull up for 3. This is going to be a tough matchup all game. This matchup presents the opportunity for Mckoy to see significant minutes if Manek can’t contain Hellems, but then you are sacrificing one of your main offensive threats for defense. Manek has to contain Hellems.
Back to the Bacot matchup. He has struggled to convert opportunities around the basket the past 2 games. Blame it on fatigue or whatever you want, but Bacot has to convert those opportunities on Saturday. Fellow ACC bigs have had field days against NC State’s inexperienced bigs. It’s something that has to be taken advantage of.
Good news on the offensive end is that NC State is not a great defensive team when they are forced to defend. Their opponents have a higher shooting percentage and 3 point percentage than they do. State does average almost 8 steals a game though and they have the ability to run. Controlling the pace of the game will be important. With our rotation the way it is, we can’t really afford to play but so fast. We need to play with pace when it makes sense, but we aren’t going to outrun teams right now. Whew never thought I would say that about Carolina basketball. Taking care of the basketball will be crucial. It’s something we have done the past 2 games. It needs to be a point of emphasis again. It was absolutely critical in the wins over Virginia Tech and Boston College and it will be critical again on Saturday. We also need to shoot the ball better. Plain and simple. This also feels like another must win game.
Latest KENPOM: UNC is 37th, NC State is 102th
Latest NET Rankings: UNC is 43rd, NC State is 114th
THINGS TO WATCH:
Rotation (The absence of both Harris and Garcia are felt here. To say the rotation is at 8 is generous. Yes Johnson, Mckoy, and Walton see minutes but the starters are being relied on heavily. Who is the first off the bench and who sees the most minutes off the bench? I’m more of a believer of Dunn taking Walton’s minutes than I was at the beginning of the season.)
Playing Through the Post (State’s post defense isn’t good. Bacot’s field goal percentage has left a lot to be desired the past couple of games. We need to feed Bacot and Bacot has to convert. The same thing applies to put backs off offensive rebounds. We have to be better around the basket. Bacot is primed for another big game.)
Valuing the Basketball (We can’t give away possessions and allow a team that likes to run opportunities to get out on the fast break. We took care of the ball and grinded out 2 wins so far this week. We have to take care of the ball in another game that is more than likely going to be another grind.)
Atmosphere (Roy Williams is being honored during the game. I would expect that to bring more people to the game. It’s also a Saturday afternoon. Yes, I know there is a chance of snow. It’s less than an inch in the Triangle. Get it together fellow Tar Heels. Honoring Roy adds another level of hype to this game. I would imagine the crowd will be a lot better than the crowd that was present for the Boston College game. I think that energy will play a big factor for our guys.
Hellems Matchup (I really think this matchup is the X factor in this game. Our bigs have struggled with less athletic (Waardenburg and LaRavia) in previous games. The combination of Manek and McKoy at least needs to be able to contain Hellems.)
The 1982 team will also be honored on Saturday. There is definitely an attempt to provide as much energy as possible in the Smith Center Saturday afternoon.
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