GAME INFO:
February 16, 2022
8:00pm Tip Off
Dean E Smith Center (Capacity: 21,750)
Chapel Hill, NC
TV: ACCN
UNC is given a 94% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
UNC: 18-7 (10-4 in ACC)
Pitt:10-16 (5-10 in ACC)
Last Time Out:
UNC: Beat Florida State 94-74
Pitt: Beat NC State 71-69
PERSPECTIVE:
• Carolina's 94-74 win over Florida State was the Tar Heels' 10th ACC win of the season.
• This is the 45th time in 68 seasons of ACC Basketball the Tar Heels have won at least 10 regular-season conference games.
• That is five more than Duke, which is second with 40. NC State (16), Virginia (15) and Wake Forest (13) are next and those three schools combined have one fewer 10-win seasons than UNC.
There is a ton of good info in this link from GoHeels. https://goheels.com/news/2022/2/15/mens-basketball-pitt-to-visit-smith-center-wednesday-night.aspx
SERIES INFO:
• Carolina is 15-5 against the Panthers, including 8-4 since Pittsburgh began ACC play in 2013-14.
• Carolina is 7-1 at home, including 6-1 in the Smith Center, versus the Panthers.
• Carolina won the only meeting last season, 75-65 at Pittsburgh, which snapped the Panthers' two-game win streak vs. UNC.
• Carolina shot 60.7 percent from the floor in the second half and had 22 assists on 32 field goals.
• Armando Bacot led UNC with 21 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks.
• The Panthers won the most recent game in Chapel Hill, 73-65, on 1/8/2020. The Tar Heels led by 14 in the first half and by nine at the half. It was UNC's largest halftime lead in a home loss since 1997. Garrison Brooks led UNC with 21 and freshman Armando Bacot had 15 points and four assists.
• Jason Capel, an assistant coach for the Panthers, scored 1,447 points for UNC from 1998-2002.
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (16.6 PPG)
Pitt: J. Hugley (14.2 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (12.2)
Pitt: J. Hugley (8.2)
Assists:
UNC: Love (3.7)
Pitt: F. Odukale (3.3)
Florida State Notes
Caleb Love had 18 points on 6-12 shooting, 6-8 from 3, 3 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 TOs, 1 block, 2 steals
Armando Bacot had 17 points on 7-9 shooting, 3-5 FT, 14 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 TO, 1 block
Brady Manek had 16 points on 7-11 shooting, 1-4 from 3, 1-2 FT, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, 2 steals
RJ Davis had 16 points on 7-13 shooting, 2-6 from 3, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 TO, 2 blocks, 1 steal
Leaky Black had 5 points on 2-2 shooting, 1-1 FT, 3 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 TO, 1 steal
Kerwin Walton had 9 points on 3-6 shooting, 2-4 from 3, 1-1 FT, 1 rebound, 1 TO
Dontrez Styles had 8 points on 3-7 shooting, 2-3 FT, 4 rebounds, 3 TOs
Puff Johnson had 5 points on 2-4 shooting, 1-2 from 3, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal
TEAM STATS:
55.2% FG (37-67)
42.9% 3PT (12-28)
61.5% FT (8-13)
40 rebounds
22 assists
16 turnovers
5 blocks
7 steals
46 points in the paint
15 points off TOs
21 second chance points
20 fast break points
22 bench points
Bacot recorded his 19th double-double of the season
Dontrez Styles was the first off the bench
Manek was the only player to play 30 minutes
Carolina got back on track in a big way against Florida State. Yes Florida State was without 4 starters and then lost Mills not even 10 minutes into the game, but still raise your hand if you saw that coming. The Heels hadn’t shot the ball all that great in the 3 games leading up to FSU specifically Caleb Love. Love did all his damage from behind the 3 point line, but a confident Caleb Love is key to how this team finishes the season. He needed to get back on track and he did it in a big way. Love looked better as a distributor, but he still needs to get his turnovers down. 6 assists is great, but 4 turnovers is a number that can still be improved. Davis and Black each had 5 assists and 1 turnover. Davis is consistently making better decisions.
Good passing led to 20 fast break points as both Black and Love had great passes in transition. The team had 22 assists on 37 made field goals. The bench also combined for 22 points. Walton had another solid performance, but Styles made the most noise off the bench. He was the first bench player that Hubert Davis went to and the athletic freshmen added 8 points in his best game of the season. Davis has said players that play well in practice will play in the games and if you play well when you are in the game then you will continue to get minutes. Not rocket science right? But the team or at least the Tar Heels media hear the “Davis needs to play the freshmen more” noise. If you don’t read Adam Lucas’ articles then you should. This is a couple of paragraphs from his most recent article on Dontrez Styles after the Florida State game.
The only two people who seem to be largely unaffected by the constant urge to assess the freshman's play on a possession-by-possession basis are Styles and Davis. Both agree the rookie has had his best practices of the season over the last two weeks.
"I'm just being me," Styles says. "At the beginning of the year, I wasn't being me. I'm trying to do what I do best—be athletic and do the small things."
Styles, as you have no doubt noticed, is incredibly athletic. It stands out even against a team like the Seminoles. It is also not enough, simply by itself, to qualify for substantial minutes. Hubert Davis is trying to win basketball games. That means he needs certainty. Right now, the starting five give him the most surety, and that's why they're playing the most.
But that doesn't mean there's no development. Remember that Davis is likely the first coach in Styles' life who needs Styles less than Styles needs him. Styles has always been the star, which comes with substantially more freedom and substantially more tolerance for mistakes. This is the first time in his life he's been on a team in which he is not one of the five most productive players. Turning it over at Kinston High isn't quite as big a deal when you come back down the court and score 20 against the rest of the East Central Conference. That isn't a knock on Styles—at some point in their lives, every single player has been in the exact same spot he's in today.
And this is not to say that it has been easy. Quite the opposite. "It's been tough," Styles says. "I've learned to trust Coach Davis and what he is telling me—keep working hard and it will come. And that's what is happening now."
Remember that most freshmen come into college from being the guy or one of the guys on their high school or AAU team. They are now on a team where that may no longer be the case. In Styles case, he is no longer THE guy. Styles has had to learn to trust his head coach and vice versa. Hubert Davis has consistently said he has to trust a player in order to play him. It’s a process. Styles has learned to trust Hubert Davis and he was the first guy off the bench against Florida State. Coincidence? Probably not. It’s a big adjustment for some guys when they try to transition from high school to college ball. Athleticism is no longer enough. Turnovers are magnified when you can’t just go get a bucket whenever you want to.
And yes I'm all for sitting the starters for bad play because there does need to be consequences for it. Well there at least needs to be consequences for no energy or effort. But playing time is built on trust. Styles is earning it and if what Hubert Davis said about practice and playing time rings true well then he should get his chances in the Pitt game. Styles and Dunn are learning. Hubert Davis is a first year coach and is learning. Things weren’t going to magically get fixed in one season. But Carolina has won 2 straight, which was a nice bounce back week leading up to a matchup with Pitt on Wednesday night and then a trip to Blacksburg on Saturday.
As most games are for a bubble team at this point in the season, this is a must win. Pitt is coming off a win against NC State (who now sits at the bottom of the ACC). Pitt sits in 11th in the ACC. Carolina is in 4th after a gritty win at Clemson and a blowout home win over an injury plagued Seminoles team. At 10-16, it’s obvious that Pitt has struggled this year. They have out-of-conference losses to the Citadel, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, UMBC, Monmouth and Jacksonville. They have close wins over UNC-W, Towson, Colgate and St. John’s. They have lost to UVA twice by a combined 6 points. They also lost to Virginia Tech twice. They beat Louisville twice and split the season series with Boston College. They lost to Notre Dame by 1 point and have away losses at Syracuse and Clemson. They have a win at Florida State and are coming off a home win over NC State.
Pitt has been an offensively challenged team at times, and their defense hasn’t done them any favors. Opponents are averaging more points and have better field goal and 3 point shooting percentages. The Panthers are one of the only teams the Heels have played that have a worse turnover margin. A short rotation shouldn’t be a problem in this game. Pitt plays 8-9 guys, but only 6-7 of them see 10+ minutes during any given game. Their rotation is as follows:
STARTERS:
M. Gueye F (GRAD 6-10) (12)
J. Hugley F (SO 6-9) (17)
F. Odukale G (SO 6-5) (16)
I. Horton G (RS-JR 6-5) (4)
J. Burton G (SR 6-4) (19)
BENCH:
N. Collier F (SO 6-8)
W. Jeffress G (SO 6-7)
O. Ezeakudo G (SR 6-1) (1)
N. Santos F (FR 6-7) (2)
D. Oladapo F (SR 6-7) (1)
Offensively the Panthers are led by Hugley, Burton, and Odukale. Burton has more double digit games, but the offense is initiated by Odukale. The number of double figure games for each player is to the right of their class and height. Similar to Carolina, Pitt gets most of their scoring from their starters with one player, Horton, being less of a scoring threat than others.
Burton leads the team in minutes at 35 per game. Odukale is the only other player that averages over 30 minutes a game (32). Hugley, Gueye, and Horton average between 25-30. Jeffress and Ezeakudo average between 20-25. Oladapo and Santos average between 10-15 Collier averages 9.5
Hugley is the only player to have started every game. Burton, Odukale, and Gueye have all started over 20 games. Horton has only played in 7 games.
As a team, Pitt doesn’t shoot the 3 ball overly well, but they do have some guys that shoot it at a respectable percentage. Both Burton and Odukale shoot it a little better than 34% from behind the arc. Despite Horton being less of a scoring threat than his teammates, he shoots it at a higher percentage (41.7%). He has half the attempts, but that probably has something to do with the fact that he has only played in 7 games. Pitt is another team with a forward that has the 3 point shot in his arsenal. Gueye shoots it at 36.6% and he has the most attempts on the team (93). How effectively our bigs guard Gueye will be key. If Gueye can knock down 3’s, that may be enough to keep Pitt in the game. The percentages are listed out below:
3 Point Percentages:
Burton 34.4% (22-64)
Odukale 34.6% (27-78)
Horton 41.7% (15-36)
Gueye 36.6% (34-93)
Ezeakudo 41.5% (17-41)
As is usually the case, RJ Davis will be at a size disadvantage with whoever he guards. I would guess that he guards Horton since Horton is less of an offensive threat than Odukale and Burton. Burton is the biggest offensive threat, so I see Black starting out on him. Love will start the game out on Odukale even though I wouldn’t be surprised to see that matchup flipped. Hugley does most of his damage in the post and is a bigger scoring threat than Gueye. Hugley only shots 13.9% from 3. He has 36 attempts, but clearly his game isn’t shooting it from deep. Bacot checks Hugley. Gueye is a 3 point shooting big and it will be Manek’s job to make sure he doesn’t get shots up. Also wouldn’t be surprised to see this matchup flip if Manek is unable to contain Gueye. Guarding Gueye puts Bacot at a greater risk of getting in foul trouble though. Manek needs a much better game defensively than he has had in previous games.
Manek was the only player to play 30 minutes against Florida State and if Carolina can pull away in this game, it will once again give some key guys some rest for a pivotal final stretch of the season.
After the Pitt game, the Heels have 5 regular season games remaining:
@ Virginia Tech 2/19
Vs. Louisville 2/21
@ NC State 2/26
Vs. Syracuse 2/28
@ Duke 3/5
Every game besides the regular season finale at Duke will be against teams that are lower in the ACC standings. According to some ESPN analysts, Virginia Tech has entered the bubble talk as they are on a 6 game win streak after defeating Virginia on Monday night. That also means that they have almost a week to prepare for the matchup on Saturday. Louisville and Syracuse aren’t cake walk games at home, and while NC State is at the bottom of the league, playing in Raleigh is still really annoying. The Virginia Tech and Duke games will provide opportunities for that elusive Q1 win. Michigan dropped to 35th in the latest NET Rankings after losing at home over the weekend, so that is back to a Q2 win. Pitt would be a Q4 win.
Latest KENPOM Ratings: UNC is 38th, Pitt is 178th
Latest NET Rankings: UNC is 37th, Pitt is 180th
THINGS TO WATCH:
Rotation (The Florida State game saw Styles be the first man off the bench and saw Mckoy get very few meaningful minutes. Johnson also returned to the rotation and Walton further cemented his place in the rotation. Dunn saw first half minutes against Clemson. We have watched this evolve all season and it’s going to continue to evolve.)
Double Double Bacot (Bacot picked up his 19th double double of the season against FSU, and he should pick up his 20th against Pitt. Outside of their starting forwards, the Panthers’ tallest player is listed at 6’8” and one of their starting forwards is 6’9”. Feed the beast.)
Guarding Gueye (Carolina’s bigs have struggled guarding opposing bigs that can shoot the 3. Gueye presents a problem because of this. Manek hasn’t had great defensive games lately and he will most likely start out on him. If Manek can’t handle the assignment then Bacot would have to switch onto him which would put him at greater risk of getting into foul trouble.)
Welcome Back Caleb Love (Love momentarily broke out of his shooting slump against Florida State where all 18 points came from behind the 3 point line. He needs to back up that performance with another solid game. It would also be nice if he cleaned it up a little bit. He did a great job of sharing the ball against Florida State, but the turnovers still need to go down.)
Energy and Effort (Again it’s no secret the Heels play better at home, but how do they come out after blowing out Florida State. Are they fat and happy? Or do they come out aggressive looking to put the game away early? The first 4 minutes has been a great indicator of the energy and effort this team will bring pretty much all season.)
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