GAME INFO:
February 28, 2022
7:00pm Tip Off
Dean E Smith Center (Capacity: 21,750)
Chapel Hill, NC
TV: ESPN
UNC is given a 78.4% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
UNC: 21-8 (13-5 in ACC)
Syracuse: 15-14 (9-9 in ACC)
Last Time Out:
UNC: Won at NC State 84-74
Syracuse: Lost to Duke 72-97
SERIES INFO:
• Carolina is 14-6 against the Orange, including 10-3 since Syracuse joined the ACC.
• The Tar Heels are 5-0 in the Smith Center, including last season's 81-75 win on 1/12/21.
LAST SEASON IN CHAPEL HILL
• Armando Bacot (15/12) and Garrison Brooks (16/10) had double-doubles for the Tar Heels in their 81-75 win.
• RJ Davis made two threes and added a dozen points.
• The game was tied at 40 the half and as late as 3:00 left in the game. Bacot made consecutive field goals with 1:22 and 58 seconds to play to extend Carolina's lead to 75-70.
• Carolina had 24 offensive rebounds (Syracuse had 21 defensive rebounds) that led to 24 second-chance points.
• Leaky Black had seven assists and blocked a career-high three shots.
LAST SEASON IN SYRACUSE
• Carolina committed 20 turnovers that led to 28 Syracuse points in the Orange's two-point win.
• Syracuse made 15 steals that helped the Orange amass 20 fastbreak points.
• Carolina outrebounded Syracuse, 53-33, including a 26-13 advantage on the offensive boards that led to 25 second-chance points for the Tar Heels.
• Syracuse outscored UNC 24 to 12 from the three-point line. The Orange made 7 of 17 threes in the first half, while the Tar Heels went 0 for 10 in the opening stanza and 4 for 20 for the game.
• Bacot led UNC with 18 points and 15 rebounds (eight offensive).
• Garrison Brooks (11) and Caleb Love (10) also scored in double figures.
• Buddy Boeheim scored 17 first-half points for the Orange. When the teams played in Chapel Hill on 1/12/21, he scored 18 first-half points but was held scoreless in the second. In the game at Syracuse, he added nine in the second to finish with a game-high 26.
As always the GoHeels crew does a great job of putting more cool stats together. Check them out: https://goheels.com/news/2022/2/27/mens-basketball-senior-night-monday-vs-syracuse.aspx
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (16.3 PPG)
Syracuse: B. Boeheim (19.1 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (12.5)
Syracuse: C. Swider (6.8)
Assists:
UNC: Love (3.7)
Syracuse: J. Girard III (4.2)
NC State Notes
Armando Bacot had 28 points on 11-13 shooting, 6-7 FT, 18 rebounds, 1 assist, 5 TOs, 5 blocks, 2 steals
Caleb Love had 16 points on 4-14 shooting, 1-7 from 3, 7-7 FT, 2 assists, 4 TOs, 1 steal
Brady Manek had 16 points on 6-9 shooting, 2-5 from 3, 2-2 FT, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 TOs
RJ Davis had 6 points on 3-8 shooting, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 TO, 1 steal
Puff Johnson had 16 points on 4-9 shooting, 2-4 from 3, 6-7 FT, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 TO, 1 steal
TEAM STATS
51.8% FG (29-56)
26.3% 3PT (5-19)
91.3% FT (21-23)
46 rebounds
13 assists
16 turnovers
5 blocks
5 steals
44 points in the paint
14 points off turnovers
13 second chance points & fast break points
16 bench points (all by Puff Johnson)
Bacot picked up his 22nd double-double of the season
Bacot is only the 3rd ACC player with 25 pts, 15 rebounds, and 5 blocks in a game over the last 25 seasons.
Manek now has 300 career three-pointers
* means starter
Carolina earned another win on Saturday and completed the season sweep of NC State. The Heels had control the entire game and once again the final score was not indicative of most of the game went. In racing we say, “just clicking off laps” and Carolina is just clicking off wins right now. The Heels are just doing what they need to do to win games even if it isn’t always pretty.
Thankfully Leaky Black isn’t seriously injured and it was reported that his hyperextended knee shouldn’t keep him out of the Syracuse game, but time will tell. That was a scary moment and hopefully that had some Tar Heel fans starting to appreciate how vital Leaky is to the success of this team.
Puff Johnson stepped up in his absence and poured in a career high. Johnson did a little bit of everything and did a good job of running the floor. He plays hard, and he knows to focus on what he can control. Johnson is really raw right now, his offense hasn’t quite caught up to him yet, but Carolina fans saw a glimpse of what he could be. Johnson got his opportunity and seized it which will undoubtedly result in more playing time. For anybody assuming players should just play because they were “highly recruited” or had a certain ranking out of high school, opportunities are earned not given. If you seize the opportunity when it’s given to you then it will result in more opportunities. If not? Then oh well. Puff Johnson gets it.
Bacot had another monster game which was to be expected and the Carolina guards did a good job of getting him the ball down low. Turnovers were still a concern this game and for the second straight game Love had more turnovers than assists. Davis is clearly the better ball handler at this point in the year even though he didn’t have a great day offensively.
Carolina now needs a win tonight against Syracuse to clinched a double bye in the ACC tournament. And all things considered that would be a huge win for the Heels this season. Wins haven’t always been pretty and there have been some bad losses but that wouldn’t be a bad finish in the ACC for a first year head coach.
Tonight is Senior Night and Carolina will honor Leaky Black, Ryan McAdoo, and Brady Manek. Black has said he is undecided about his future at Carolina. He could return next year for his “covid year.” The festivities will happen before the game and there will not be any senior speeches.
The Heels will have to take down the Syracuse Orange in order to honor their seniors correctly. The Orange got blown out by Duke on Saturday. They have early season losses to Colgate and VCU. Colgate dropped 100 on them. They did beat Indiana in OT and played Villanova closely. They lost by 6. They have a bad non conference loss to Georgetwon. They have split the season series with FSU, Wake Forest and Pitt. They lost both games to Duke and swept the season series against BC. They also have home losses to UVA and away losses at Miami, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. They have an away win against NC State, and home wins over Louisville and Georgia Tech in OT. They are currently on a 2 game losing streak having lost to Notre Dame and Duke.
The Orange’s rotation has been steady throughout the season. Jesse Edwards was starting until he broke his wrist against Boston College on Feb. 8th. This was a big blow to Syracuse as Edwards was averaging 12 points a game. Anselem is starting in his place. The rest of the rotation is below.
STARTERS
C. Swider F (SR 6-9) (21)
J. Boeheim F (GR 6-8) (22)
F. Anselem C (SO 6-10)
J. Girard II G (JR 6-1) (21)
B. Boeheim G (SR 6-6) (25)
BENCH
B. Williams F (FR 6-8)
B. Sidibe C (GR 6-10) (1)
S. Torrence G (JR 6-3)
J. Ajak C (R-SO 6-10)
The Orange play a 8 man rotation where the 8th man can see limited minutes. The main rotation is the starters and the first 3 men listed under “bench.” Syracuse relies heavily on their starters though and get little to no bench production as Sidibe is the only player to have recorded double figures in a game this season. The number of double figure games is to the right of the player’s class and height.
Anselem is a non factor on the offensive end. Swider, Girard and both Boeheim account for almost the entirety of the scoring for the Orange. And to no surprise these 4 guys see the majority of the minutes. Buddy Boeheim leads the team in minutes at 37.7 minutes a game. Jimmy Boeheim, Girard and Swider average over 34. Then there is a big drop off in average minutes. Williams, Torrence, and Anselem average between 11-12 minutes. Sidibe averages almost 10 minutes while Ajak averages 5.9.
Syracuse relies heavily on the 3. They shoot 37.3% (Carolian shoots 37.2%) from 3 and average almost 9 makes a game. The 4 scorers (Girard, Swider and both Boeheims) all can shoot the 3 and the Orange will go 4 out. Even though they are forwards, both J. Boehiem and Swider shoot the 3 and they shoot it well. Buddy is a known 3 point shooter and he is streaky. Once he gets going, he is hard to stop. Girard is a savvy experienced guard who leads the team in assists and steals, but is just as big a threat to shoot the 3 as any of the guys out there. He has the second most attempts on the team. The percentages are listed below:
3 point percentages:
B. Boeheim 33.2% (78-235)
J. Boeheim 38% (30-79)
Girard 41.4% (76-185)
Swider 39.6% (65-164)
Torrence 37.5% (3-8)
Obviously Syracuse having forwards that can shoot the 3 creates matchup problems. It also creates matchup problems because Syracuse starts 2 forwards, a center and 2 guards. This most likely means Caleb Love has to guard Buddy Boeheim. Love is a capable defender. We saw it Saturday in how he guard Smith, but sometimes his “want to” just isn’t there. How Love plays Buddy Boeheim will have a significant impact on the outcome of the game. Davis matches up against Girard. Girard is a bigger body guard and can play physically. He can also shoot the 3. RJ has to play him close but keep him in front. Drives will create open 3’s for Buddy and company. If Leaky Black can go my guess is that he gets Jimmy Boeheim. If he can’t then I would guess Puff Johnson starts in his place. Convention wisdom may tell you that Walton starts instead but that would leave us with even bigger matchup problems. If HD decides to stick Black on Buddy then Love gets Jimmy? Then Love is really undersized. Just going through different scenarios. The matchups for Swider and Anselem could go either way. Anselem doesn’t play out on the perimeter and isn’t a scoring threat. Bacot guarding him would keep him out of foul trouble. Manek has had trouble guarding bigs that can shoot, but Manek has gotten the assignment on those bigs all season long. So Bacot on Anselem and Manek on Swider.
We all know about Syracuse’s zone. This is one of the worst defensive teams that Boeheim has had though. But you beat this zone by getting an effective passer into the middle of it. This team needs to watch film on how Theo Pinson picked this zone apart a couple of years ago. Penetration also breaks the zone down. Our offensive is more effective when our guards play down hill. It’s no different on Monday night.
So who are the options for “middle man.” If leaky can go then it’s most likely leaky. He is a good passer and is still the least effective scorer out of the starters. But if the Orange decide to leave him alone at the free throw line then he can turn around and make that shot. But if Leaky can get to the free throw line then he can kick it out to Love or Davis as well as Manek. He could dump it down low to Bacot. Manek is also a good cutter, so he could cut from the corner and that opens up plays like the one saw against Louisville.
Let’s say Leaky can’t go. This could open up a combo of Bacot and Manek. Manek’s passing skills are underrated and he is a good cutter. He would be a good guy to rely on to find the soft spots in the zone and distribute the ball according. This would lead to a lot of dump downs to Bacot or if left alone he can drain shots. If we went with Bacot then we wouldn’t have anyone on the low block but that would leave both blocks open for Manek to cut to. Manek could cut from the corner and then Bacot (or a guard) could dive down the lane. No matter what the ball has to get to the middle and it has to stay moving. We can’t get complacent and be content to jack up 3’s. Syracuse will try to push out with the zone, we can’t just stand around the perimeter and be stagnant.
Latest KENPOM Ratings: UNC is 39th, Syracuse is 86th
Latest NET Rankings: UNC is 40th, Syracuse is 92nd
Syracuse is a Q3 game
THINGS TO WATCH FOR:
Rotation: (This will really be dependent on if Leaky can go and how much he plays. Puff Johnson seized his opportunity so he will clearly get playing time. Mckoy was available for both the Louisville and State game, but didn’t see action. Styles and Walton played a combined 9 minutes against State. I think you get the picture.)
Defending the 3 (Syracuse relies on the 3. They have maybe the most streaky shooter in the ACC in Buddy Boeheim and they have bigs that can shoot the 3. Syracuse has to shoot well from behind the arc to win. We have struggled to defend the 3 at times this season. Love decides when he wants to play defense but is a capable defender. How Carolina defends the 3 will determine the outcome of this game.)
Beating the Zone (Beating the Syracuse zone requires getting the ball in the middle and plenty of ball movement. The ball can’t be dribbled or passed around the perimeter. That means the defense isn’t having to work. The ball needs to be passed quickly and guards need to penetrate. It’s a real benefit to have Manek who is a great cutter.)
Second Chance Points (It’s well known that the Syracuse zone allows for more second chance opportunities. Carolina has made a living rebounding the basketball in years past and is still a stable in HD’s new system. Bacot should feast on the boards tonight. He needs to convert around the basket.)
Energy and Effort (We are getting around that time where things are going a little too well. Carolina has reeled off 3 straight wins and only need to win this game to secure a double bye in the ACC tournament and possibly their NCAA tournament hopes. This team hasn’t responded well at times when games have meant something. Fall asleep against Boeheims and they will make you pay. Energy and effort for the full 40 minutes. Our seniors deserve that.)
Shoutout to the Women’s team on their season sweep of Duke and securing a double bye in the ACC tournament. This team could very well host some NCAA tournament games if their projected NCAA seed improves. Banghart has done an outstanding job with that program and it’s only going to keep getting better.
The baseball team has started the season 6-1 and took the series this weekend against ECU. For any baseball fans, The state of North Carolina has some great baseball. Enjoy it and appreciate it. The bosh is a beautiful stadium and tickets are cheap so go check out the diamond Heels when you get the chance.
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