GAME INFO:
January 8, 2022
1:00pm pm Tip Off
Dean Smither Center (Capacity: 21,750)
Chapel Hill, NC
TV: ESPN
UNC is given a 73.7% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
UNC: 10-4 (2-1 in ACC)
Virginia: 9-5 (3-1 in ACC)
Last Time Out:
UNC: Lost at Notre Dame 73-78
Virginia: Won at Clemson 75-65
SERIES INFO:
• Carolina is 131-60 against Virginia, including 66-9 in Chapel Hill and 24-6 at the Smith Center.
• The Cavaliers have won seven straight, their longest win streak in series history since winning the first eight games between the schools from 1911-16.
• Virginia has won the last two games in the Smith Center (2/11/2019 and 2/15/2020), the first time UVA ever won consecutive starts in Chapel Hill.
• Carolina's most recent win over Virginia was in Chapel Hill in 2017.
• The Tar Heels have averaged 53.2 points in their last seven games against Virginia.
• Hubert Davis was 6-4 as a player against the Cavaliers.
• The teams played once last season, a 60-48 Virginia win in Charlottesville on 2/13/2021. No Tar Heel scored in double figures for the first time since the 1966 ACC Tournament. Virginia out-scored UNC, 30-6, from three-point range and Carolina shot 34.5% from the floor (25% in the first half).
• Virginia won the previous matchup in the Smith Center, 64-62, on 2/15/2020 on a game-winning three by Tomas Woldetensae, his sixth of the game, with 0.8 seconds to play.
• Armando Bacot, then a freshman, had 16 rebounds in the 2020 game.
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (15.7 PPG)
Virginia: J. Gardner (15.4 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (10.4)
Virginia: J. Gardneri (7.6)
Assists:
UNC: Davis (3.6)
Virginia: R. Beekman (4.4)
Notre Dame Notes
Armando Bacot had 21 points on 9-13 shooting, 3-4 FT, 17 rebounds, 4 TOs, 1 block
RJ Davis had 19 points on 6-12 shooting, 3-7 from 3, 4-4 FT, 3 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 TOs, 1 steal
Caleb Love had 15 points on 6-12 shooting, 3-6 from 3, 2 rebounds, 4 TOs, 1 block, 1 steal
Brady Manek had 9 points on 4-11 shooting, 1-5 from 3, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 TO, 1 steal
Leaky Black had 4 points on 2-5 shooting, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 TO
Anthony Harris had 5 points on 2-3 shooting, 1-1 from 3, 1 TO
TEAM STATS:
49.2% FG (29-59)
36.4% 3PT (8-22)
87.5% FT (7-8)
39 rebounds
10 assists
14 turnovers
5 steals
2 blocks
Well we all know the saying that doing something over and over again and expecting different results is insanity and that is exactly what happened Wednesday night in South Bend. It was clear from the beginning that Hubie’s game defensive game plan called for switching literally everything and anything. This led to many mismatches and confusion, which Notre Dame took advantage of on their way to shooting 13-31 from the 3 point line. The fighting irish took more 3s than they did 2s. People wonder why teams seem to have their best shooting nights against us, well maybe it is because we have difficulty guarding the 3 point line. Over helping and the inability to guard ball screens are to thank for that. This was also a game that didn't play to UNC’s 2 post player line up. An adjustment Hubie eventually made, but did not stick with. He never switched out of the excessive switching. The first half was the bacot show as he had a double double at the half with 16 points and 11 rebounds. The second half saw Davis and Love come alive from 3. The Heels found themselves down by 13 at one point but managed to fight back, jumped started by Love’s diving on the floor steal and 3 pointer. With under 3 to play the Heels had a 1 point lead thanks to a Bacot post up. Bacot simply did not get the ball enough in the second half, only scoring 5 points. Manek would give up 2 3s to Laszewski due to a combination of over helping and being exhausted. Another unnecessary switch led to Bacot guarding Hubb. Hubb pump faked, got Bacot in the air and then proceeded to draw the foul on a 3 point shot. A leaky black missed lay up pretty much sealed the deal. There was definitely some questionable officiating, as a terrible charge call on Love led to a basket for the Irish. When Bacot did get the ball in the second half he was getting beat up pretty good, meanwhile the Irish were getting little ticky tack fouls on the other end. Regardless, you shouldn't put yourself in a position for the officials to decide the game. Love admitted to not giving his all in the first half. This is just unacceptable. Your team is short handed and you knew they would need more out of you so instead of giving more, you give less? If you aren't going to give it your all everytime you step out on the floor then why play? Love also tends to force things too much. A couple of times he dribbled into 2 or 3 men, threw up a shot or attempted to pass and turned it over. I can only assume he was looking for a foul. It is clear after this game that Davis is more of the “true point guard”. Between the two he is definitely more of the slasher and distributor. Bacot called the loss embarrassing and that it was unacceptable that they were not winning with the talent they had and not playing Carolina basketball. At this point all these things are just words, there needs to be more action, effort and consistency. Bottom line Hubie got out coached by Brey. I guess that's the difference between a veteran head coach and someone in their first year. Well things don't get any easier because Tony Bennett is one of the best in the game and Hubie can't afford to get out coached again, especially not on his home floor.
There will be games like this where teams are missing players due to covid and that will be taken into consideration by the selection committee. This game will have an asterisk next to it due to missing 3 rotational players (Mckoy and Walton due to covid, Garcia concussion). Hubert has confirmed that Mckoy is available to play. Walton and Garcia will not be. So, the Heels are still shorthanded but do get a rotational post player back.
Virginia is a team we have struggled with year after year despite the predictability of what Virginia does. They play great defense and they eat up the shot clock on the offensive end. Possessions are limited and if you fall behind by double digits then the game is pretty much over. Possessions are at a premium in these games.
Virginia has struggled at times this year and this team isn’t as good as teams Bennett has had in the past, but it’s still Tony Bennett and Virginia. They have losses to Navy and James Madison. They lost to Houston by 20. Houston is a good team but Virginia was never competitive in the game. They lost to Iowa by one and squeaked by Pitt by the same amount. They got blown out by Clemson at home and then beat them by 10 on the road. They have a solid win against Syracuse as well and have won back to back games.
So Virginia has been more inconsistent than usual, but their rotation has remained consistent despite inconsistencies in play. They have started the same 5 guys the entire season and they have played an 8 man rotation the past 2 games. The rotation is as follows:
STARTERS:
K. Shedrick F (Redshirt SO 6-11)
J. Gardner F (SR 6-6)
R. Beekman G (SO 6-3)
A Franklin G (JR 6-4)
K. Clark G (SR 5-10)
BENCH:
F. Caffaro C (Redshirt JR 7-1)
T. Murray G (FR 6-5)
K. Stattman G (SR 6-8)
I Milicic Jr. G (FR 6-10)
M. Poindexter G (SO 6-2)
C. McCorkle G (SO 6-3)
The rotation consists of the starters plus the first 3 bench guys. The other guys have played but Caffaro, Murray, and Stattman have been part of the rotation the past 2 games. I would expect the same 8 man rotation on Saturday. The Woos have some size, but they aren’t the team’s featured scorers. Shedrick has been in double figures 3 times. Caffaro hasn’t reach that mark yet this season. Gardner is much more of a threat as he leads the team in scoring and has 11 double digit games. Franklin has contributed 9 double digits games, and Clark has 8. Beekman rounds out the starters with 3. Murray and Milicic are the only bench players with a double digit game and Milicic hasn’t seen the floor the past 2 games.
As usual this Virginia team is experienced. They only start one true underclassman and Murray is the only freshman that is a continued part of the rotation.
This team has some triangle roots. Gardner went to Heritage High School in North Raleigh. Shedrick went to Holly Springs High School in southern Wake County and McCorkle went to Greensboro Day school, but is listed as being from Raleigh. Expect there to be some extra motivation there. On our side, Mckoy transferred from Virginia. Davis has said he will be able to play.
Clark leads the team in minutes at 35.1 a game. Beekman is the only other player over 30 minutes at 33.7. Franklin and Gardner both average 29 minutes a game. Shedrick is the other player averaging over 20 minutes at 22.1. Caffaro and Stattman average 14.5 and 12.1 respectively. Murray averages 9.4.
The good news for the Heels? Virginia is ranked 257th in 3 point shooting, but teams usually randomly get hot when they play us. It’s really not but so random. Guarding the 3 point line has been a problem for years. Anyway Clark is the biggest threat from behind the arc at 42.1%. Gardner shoots 37.5% but has only taken 8 3’s. Murray sits at 44.4%. Stattman sits at 33.3%.
Gardner isn’t a huge threat to shoot the 3, but it still needs to be something our bigs take into consideration. Virginia doesn’t present any real matchup problems size wise. I would imagine Manek guards Shedrick and Bacot gets Gardner. Manek is a better post defender than he is out on the perimeter. When Manek is put into a situation where he has to guard the perimeter or guard against a big driving, he struggles. Love will most likely get the assignment on Beekman, and RJ will guard Clark. It’s finally a matchup that doesn’t leave RJ undersized, but Clark is crafty and knows how to use his size (or lack thereof) to his advantage. He is a smart player and still presents a challenge. Don’t get up on him and he isn’t afraid to shoot, play to close and he will drive past you. This will be a big matchup for RJ and the Heels. Black will get Franklin with Franklin being one of their better scorers. Leaky has the size advantage. Again another big matchup for the game.
This game is another opportunity for Bacot to have a big game. It’s a game that we can’t afford to get away from feeding him. Despite our revamped offense, our best option is still to dump the ball into the post.
We had 14 turnovers to 10 assists in the Notre Dame and that just won’t get it done against Virginia. You have to value the basketball against the Woos and we can’t afford many empty possessions. We need our guards to play smarter and move the ball quicker in order to move a very good defense. The ball travels faster in the air than it does by dribbling. The Tar Heels were short handed against Notre Dame, but missed a great opportunity to start conference play 3-0. Instead the Heels sit at 2-1. The Smith Center hasn’t seen a lively game in a little while. Hopefully the home crowd can get the guys reenergized. No excuses for a lack of energy or effort come Saturday afternoon.
Latest KENPOM ratings: UNC is 31st, Virginia is 55th
THINGS TO WATCH FOR:
Rotation: (The rotation was short against Notre Dame due to being short handed. Hubert has said Mckoy will be available to play. Garcia and Walton will not be. Does Davis stick with a 7 man rotation or do the freshmen get some minutes?)
Not Loving the Effort (The whole team came out flat in South Bend, but Love admitted he just wasn’t there the first half. This is inexcusable coming from a captain. This game is at home so there is really no excuse for a lack of energy or effort. Love can get anything he wants when he is engaged, but does he want to be engaged? Hopefully we see a completely engaged Caleb Love on Saturday.)
Don’t Get Bored w/ What’s Working (Bacot had a double double in the first half against Notre Dame, but only had 5 points in the second half. That was due to a combination of double teams and just getting away from getting him the ball. Despite the new offense our best bet is still dumping the ball down into the post. A home game should also offer a little bit more of a friendly whistle. Get the ball down low.)
Valuing the Basketball (You aren’t going to win a game against Virginia having more turnovers than assists. The goal should be to keep the turnovers in the single digits.)
Coaching Adjustments (Hubert didn’t make any adjustments in the Notre Dame game and it cost us. What adjustments will he make facing Tony Bennett? Bennett isn’t going to be outcoached, Hubert at least needs to keep up.)
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