GAME INFO:
February 19, 2022
4:00pm Tip Off
Cassell Coliseum (Capacity: 8,925)
Blacksburg, VA
TV: ESPN2
UNC is given a 27.3% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
UNC: 18-8 (10-5 in ACC)
Virginia Tech:16-10 (8-7 in ACC)
Last Time Out:
UNC: Lost to Pitt 67-76
Virginia Tech: Beat UVA 62-53
SERIES INFO:
UNC has won the previous 3 games against Virginia Tech with two of them coming in the ACC Tournament.
The Tar Heels lead the all-time series, 71-15. The first game of the series was played on Feb. 15, 1912 in Blacksburg.
Carolina has lost the last two meetings in Blacksburg
UNC is 21-8 all time against Virginia Tech in Blacksburg and 14-5 since the Hokies joined the ACC
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (16.2 PPG)
Virginia Tech: k. Aluma (15.8 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (12.2)
Virginia Tech: J. Mutts (7.5)
Assists:
UNC: Love (3.6)
Virginia Tech: J. Mutts (3.3)
Pitt Notes
Caleb Love had 19 points on 7-14 shooting, 1-6 from 3, 4-5 FT, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 TOs, 1 steal
Brady Manek had 12 points on 5-13 shooting, 1-7 from 3, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 TOs, 1 block, 2 steals
Leaky Black had 11 points on 4-8 shooting, 2-4 from 3, 1-1 FT, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 TO, 1 block, 1 steal
Armando Bacot had 7 points on 2-6 shooting, 3-4 FT, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 TOs, 3 blocks
RJ Davis had 3 points on 1-6 shooting, 0-2 from 3, 1-2 FT, 1 rebound, 2 assists, 2 TOs, 4 steals
Kerwin Walton had 11 points on 4-7 shooting, 3-4 from 3, 2 steals
Dontrez Styles had 4 points on 1-3 shooting, 0-2 from 3, 2-2 FT, 1 block, 1 steal
TEAM STATS:
41.4% FG (24-58)
26.9% 3PT (7-26)
75% FT (12-16)
29 rebounds
13 assists
13 turnovers
6 blocks
11 steals
Pitt had 22 points off 13 Carolina turnovers
Pitt shot over 50% from the field and from 3
Pitt made 10 3s, that is double their average (5.4)
All 5 of Pitt’s starters scored in double figures
Horton went 5-5 from 3
Shoutout to the women’s team for their big victory over #3 Louisville. That program needed a big win and they got it. Banghart has that program going in the right direction. They are firmly in the NCAA tournament and I'm curious to see if they can make a little noise in the postseason. I didn’t like the Banghart hire at first. I thought “We hired the Princeton coach. Why did we do that? We couldn’t get someone better?” And man was I wrong. I was a manager for a short time near the end of the Hatchell era and that program had a lot of bad vibes. Good vibes only now under Banghart. She will get the program back to national prominence.
Bottom line, Carolina must find a way to regroup after a bad home loss to Pitt. Somehow Joe Lunardi still has the Heels as one of the last 4 teams in the tournament. Pitt’s win jumped them all the way up to 159 in the NET rankings meaning it’s now a Q3 loss. If they fall below 163 then it goes back to a Q4 loss.
If you look at the numbers, it’s not really hard to dissect that game. It’s hard to fathom how a team could come out flatter than hell on their home court with their tournament hopes on the line, but that is just who this team is at this point. They play lights out one game, and then revert back to bad habits the next.
Love followed up a great performance against Florida State by being nonexistent for 35 minutes of the game. Yes he got Carolina back into the game, but his turnover pretty much sealed the loss as well. I still don’t understand Caleb Love. He can make plays down the stretch, but he very obviously has a switch that he turns on and off whenever he so chooses. Love and Davis combined for only 5 assists. Davis only had 3 points. We are starting to see what happens when you live and die by the 3. When one of your best shooters only scores 3 points and your guards go a combined 1-8 from 3, it’s hard to win. It’s even more magnified with the loss of Garcia and by Mckoy being unavailable against Pitt.
Manek and Bacot combined for 7 assists. You aren’t going to win games when your bigs combine for more assists than your guards. You just aren’t. This team goes as it’s guards go. Davis had an off night all night. Love had a good 5 minutes. That isn’t a winning formula.
You also aren’t going to win when you allow a team to score 22 points off of 13 turnovers and allow them to shoot over 50% from the field and from 3. Pitt made 10 3’s which is double their season average. Carolina allowed Horton to go 5-5 from deep.
Bacot also only had 6 shot attempts… He is Carolina’s best player. You have to get him the ball more. And yes I watched how much Bacot was getting beat up in the post with no whistles. I will address that part of the game in a second.
Black, Styles, and Walton provided some bright spots. Walton looks more like his old self making 3 3’s. Walton had 11 points and so did Black. Leaky is busting his ass. Styles' athleticism is obvious. He can jump out of the gym. He has provided energy on both ends of the floor. The 3 point shot really isn’t his game, so his shot selection could be better at times, but so can Love’s and Davis’. I would expect Styles’ minutes to keep going up.
But let’s address the elephant in the room… the officiating was BAD. Carolina played bad and I'm not blaming the loss on the officiating by any means but WOW. Not only is the level of play down this year in both ACC football and basketball, but the officiating has thoroughly embarrassed the league. I don’t think I have seen a more one sided first half of basketball against Carolina on their home court in my entire life. There were some weak offensive foul calls, and one was just flat out incorrect. There was no flop warning when there should have been. Bacot was getting beaten to death in the post. Pitt was clearly coached to let the ball sit on the sidelines after a Carolina basket in the final minutes. There was a lot of time taken off the court that way. There wasn’t even a delay of game warning issued to the Panthers. The ACC needs to do something about the officiating because it’s affecting the outcome of games on a nightly basis.
Carolina overlooked Pitt for their matchup with Virginia Tech on Saturday night and now they have put themselves in a do or die position. Carolina desperately needs this win to boost it’s tournament resume. It’s a chance at a Q1 victory and it’s a Q1 victory that would hold. Michigan beat Iowa which may bump the Wolverines back into Q1 status which would give Carolina a Q1 win…again. But like it did the first time, that win may not hold. Carolina needs a win in Blacksburg on Saturday night.
But the Heels will face a Hokie team that is on a 6 game win streak. The streak includes a win at Florida State, at home against Georgia Tech, back to back wins over Pitt, and 2 more home wins against Syracuse and UVA. So not top tier ACC talent, but Carolina just lost to Pitt. Including the game against Carolina, Virginia Tech is 6-2 in their last 8 games. The 2 losses were back to back losses to Carolina and Miami that preceded their current 6 game win streak.
The first matchup was a physical grind. Carolinda didn’t shoot the ball well. Aluma, Mutts, and Alleyne were in double figures for the Hokies in the first meeting. Some more stats are below:
Previous Matchup Notes:
Caleb Love had 22 points on 5-14 shooting, 3-8 from 3, 9-11 FT, 2 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 TOs, 1 steal
RJ Davis had 15 points on 3-9 shooting, 1-4 from 3, 8-9 FT, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 TO, 1 block, 1 steal
Brady Manek had 15 points on 5-12 shooting, 4-8 from 3, 1-2 FT, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 TO, 1 block, 1 steal
Armando Bacot had 14 points on 7-19 shooting, 19 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 TOs, 1 block
Leaky Black had 10 points on 3-5 shooting, 2-4 from 3, 2-2 FT, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 TO, 1 block, 3 steals
TEAM STATS:
36.5% FG (23-63)
40% 3PT (10-25)
84.6% FT (22-26)
43 rebounds
13 assists
7 turnovers
4 blocks
6 steals
Only 6 second chance points on 16 offensive rebounds
Only 2 bench points came off of free throws from Justin McKoy
Love and Davis combined to go 8-23 from the field, 4-12 from 3, 17-20 FT, 7 assists, 3 TOs
Virginia Tech only had 7 points of 7 Carolina turnovers
Tech features more of an 8 man rotation. Haynes only played 1 minute in the first meeting. Their rotation has been consistent and has not changed since the first meeting. It’s listed below:
STARTERS:
K. Aluma F (SR 6-9) [22](6)
J. Mutts F (SR 6-7) [13] (5)
H. Cattoor G (JR 6-3) [14] (5)
N. Alleyne G (JR 6-4) [14](6)
S. Murphy G (SR 6-0) [9] (2)
BENCH:
J. Haynes F (FR 6-8)
D. N’Guessan F (SO 6-9) [2]
S. Pedulla G (FR 6-1) [2] (1)
D. Maddox G (SO 6-5) [4] (2)
Aluma is still the Hokies’ biggest offensive threat, but they have had consistent scoring as of late. The number in brackets is the total number of double figure games on the season for each player. The number in parentheses is the number of double figure games since the first meeting. As you can see they have gotten balanced scoring from their starters during their win streak.
The 3 point shot has been a staple during the win streak. They have had several different players get hot from behind the arc. Cattoor dropped 27 on Florida State including 9-11 from 3. Pedulla dropped 20 on Florida State including 6-7 from 3. Murphy had 18 against Georgia Tech including 4-6 from 3. As a team, the Hokies made a combined 27 3’s in their back to back wins over Pitt. They did go 5-20 against UVA. Is that a sign that they are cooling off or will the Hokies use Carolina’s poor defense to get back on track? That will be the single biggest factor in this game, Carolina’s 3 point defense will determine the outcome of this game.
Tech is a good 3 point shooting team if that wasn’t already evident by their shooting percentage of over 40%. They shoot a lot of 3’s and they have 6 players that shoot over 35% from 3. Again Cattoor is their 3 point shooting specialist, and he shoots an impressive 45.1% from deep with 144 attempts. Mutts and Aluma will both shoot the 3 but have far fewer attempts. Aluma only shoots 27.8% from 3, so I think if you are Carolina then you can live with him taking that shot. The 3 point percentages of pretty much the whole rotation is below:
3 Point Percentages:
Aluma 27.8% (15-54)
Alleyne 37.8% (48-127)
Cattoor 45.1% (65-144)
Mutts 38.9% (14-36)
Murphy 36.8% (42-114)
Maddox 51% (25-49)
N’Guessan 33.3% (4-12)
Pedulla 57.5% (23-40)
Cattoor is the Hokies’ most dangerous shooter when you combine percentage with the number of attempts and the Heels will get a heavy dose of him. He leads the team in minutes at 33.1 a game. Aluma and Alleyene are the other players averaging over 30 minutes.Mutts and Murphy average over 27. Maddox, N’Guessan, Pedulla average between 10-15
K. Aluma F (SR 6-9)- Bacot (JR 6-10)
J. Mutts F (SR 6-7) - Manek (GRAD 6-9)
H. Cattoor G (JR 6-3) - Black (SR 6-8)/Love (SO 6-4)
N. Alleyne G (JR 6-4) - Black (SR 6-8)/Love (SO 6-4)
S. Murphy G (SR 6-0) Davis (SO 6-0)
The matchup for the starters are above. Bacot gets Aluma. Aluma will shoot the 3 if he has an open shot, but he only shoots 27.8% from behind the arc, so if you are Bacot you are okay with him taking that shot. Aluma likes to drive and works in the post. Bacot can give him a little space on drives because he isn’t a great shooter in order to keep him in front.
Manek will check Mutts who shoots a better percentage than Aluma from 3 but has less attempts. Keeping Mutts in front should also be more of a priority than playing him close. Mutts has the speed and athleticism advantage over Manek.
Davis gets Murphy. Murphy has the third most 3 point attempts on the team and shoots it at a respectable percentage. He is less of an offensive threat than the other starters, but that doesn’t mean he can’t score. It’s an even matchup as far as height is concerned. Murphy is senior and is a transfer from Wofford. Due to his shooting ability, Davis needs to play him close. Realistically Davis has the physical ability to keep Murphy in front, the effort will be the biggest factor in this matchup.
Love and Black are a toss when it comes to who guards Cattoor and Alleyne. Cattor is the more dangerous 3 point shooter, but Alleyne is just as likely to shoot it from deep. Alleyne is more of a driver than Cattoor though. Black is the team’s best defender. Now that doesn’t mean he is an amazing defender, but he is the best defender we have. Stopping Alleyne from driving will be critical. If other guards have to help down when he drives then that leaves Cattoor or Murphy open for 3. If guards have to help down on Murphy when he drives then Cattoor and Alleyne are open. It has to be a coordinated effort between Davis, Love, and Black to handle their own matchups. If one guy gets beat consistently then it’s going to make another guy look bad. Stopping dribble penetration and 3 point defense go hand in hand. If Tech gets a lot of open looks then it’s going to be another long night.
Bacot got beat up by Pitt’s Hugley. He can expect another physical game from Aluma. Bacot also shouldn’t expect any help from the refs with this being an away game. This is another matchup where Bacot has the size advantage. The ball has to go down low. Bacot only having 6 shot attempts against Pitt just isn’t going to get it done. The ball needs to go into the post, and Bacot needs to do a better job of being strong with the ball when he gets it.
Carolina was able to limit turnovers in the first matchup which was a huge reason why the Heels won. The Heels coughed the ball up way too much early on in the Pitt game and it ended up being costly. 10 turnovers can turn into 30 points against the Hokies real quick. Don’t give a dangerous 3 point shooting team more opportunities at open 3’s.
This is a tough matchup, but it’s a game that Carolina must win. There needs to be a healthy dose of desperation Saturday night. Any let down in energy or effort and the game could get away.
Latest KENPOM Ratings: UNC is 48th, Virginia Tech is 26th
Latest NET Rankings: UNC is 45th, Virginia Tech is 36th
THINGS TO WATCH FOR:
Rotation (Mckoy was unavailable against Pitt and it proved to be a bigger factor than most thought it would. Will he be available against Tech and how limited will he be with a sore knee? Styles was once again the first man off the bench. I would expect him to keep seeing steady minutes even though in a tight game the starters will most likely play the majority of the second half. Walton has provided some offense finally. How big of a role does he play Saturday night?)
First 4 Minutes (This again reigned true against Pitt. Carolina jumped out to a 5-0 lead and then it went downhill quickly. Does Carolina have a response if they get punched in the mouth early? The answer the majority of the season has been “no.”)
Not Lovin’ It (Yeah I know I have used that line before, but Love needs to show up for the entirety of this game not just the final 5 minutes. It kinda seems like he is who is at this point, but man if he could decide to leave that switch on instead of turning it on and off at random that would be really nice. Love needs to get to the basket. The team runs better when that happens and Love does as well.)
3 Point Defense (Carolina made a bad shooting team in Pitt look like lights out shooters. Tech is actually a good 3 point shooting team. If Carolina does not guard the 3 point line then there is no chance they win this game. In fact, it could get really ugly if they don’t.)
Play with a Sense of Desperation (And no I ‘m not talking about where they panic and try to do too much when they get down. I’m talking about the healthy sense of desperation, the desperation that makes you leave everything out on the floor. That “we have to win this game” mindset. Carolina needs to win this game. It’s that simple. They need to play like it.)
Comments