GAME INFO:
January 22, 2022
8:00pm pm Tip Off
Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum (Capacity: 14,665)
Winston Salem, NC
TV: ACCN
UNC is given a 43.7% chance to win by ESPN
Records:
UNC: 12-5 (4-2 in ACC)
Wake Forest: 15-4 (5-3 in ACC)
Last Time Out:
UNC: Lost at Miami 57-85
Wake Forest: Won at Georgia Tech 80-64
SERIES INFO:
• Carolina is 163-67 all-time against the Demon Deacons.
• The Tar Heels are 55-32 on the road, including 15-11 against Wake Forest at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum.
• Including six NCAA Tournament games (1993, 1997, 2007) UNC is 21-11 in the LJVMC.
• The Tar Heels have won the last two games against Wake Forest and eight of the last nine.
• The Deacons beat UNC, 74-57, on 2/11/2020 in the most recent game in Winston-Salem.
• The teams played one time a year ago, an 80-73 Tar Heel win in Chapel Hill.
• Carolina head coach Hubert Davis was 9-0 as a player against Wake Forest, including 3-0 in the LJVMC.
LAST MEETING:
• Caleb Love scored 20 points for the first time as a Tar Heel. He was 7 for 12 from the floor, the first time he shot better than 50 percent, including 2 for 3 from three.
• Love committed two turnovers in the first five minutes, then did not commit another until there were 28 seconds to play.
• Leaky Black had eight assists and one turnover. assist/turnover ratio was the best of his career.
• Armando Bacot scored 14 of his 18 points in the second half. He was 8 for 10 from the floor and added six rebounds, three assists and two steals.
• Isaiah Mucius and Daivien Williamson both scored 27 points for Wake Forest.• The Tar Heels had six assists and nine turnovers in the first half and 12 assists/3 turnovers in the second.
• Carolina made 12 steals and forced 20 turnovers that led to 24 points.
• Wake Forest made 13 threes, the most by an opponent in a Tar Heel victory last season.
• Carolina had a season-high 12 steals.
Team Leaders
Points:
UNC: Bacot (17.2 PPG)
Wake Forest: A. Williams (20.3 PPG)
Rebounds:
UNC: Bacot (11.3)
Wake Forest: A. Williams (6.8)
Assists:
UNC: Davis (3.5)
Wake Forest: A. Williams (5.2)
Miami Notes
Armando Bacot had 15 points on 6-9 shooting, 3-4 FT, 12 rebounds, 1 assist, 4 TOs, 1 block
RJ Davis had 9 points on 3-10 shooting, 3-3 FT, 5 rebounds, 4 TOs, 1 block
Brady Manek had 7 points on 2-8 shooting, 2-8 from 3, 1-2 FT, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 TO, 1 block
Caleb Love had 5 points on 2-12 shooting, 1-5 from 3, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 TOs, 1 block
Dontrez styles had 7 points on 3-5 shooting, 1-2 from 3, 2 rebounds
TEAM STATS:
33.8% FG (22-65)
20% 3PT (6-30)
63.6% FT (7-11)
45 rebounds
13 assists
14 turnovers
5 blocks
1 steal
Davis and Love combined to go 5-22 from the field with 6 turnovers and 3 assists
Walton had 5 points, Dunn had 4 points, Garica had 3 points.
Styles outscored Love.
Mcgusty and Wong combined to go 16-33 from the floor, 6-13 from 3 for 45 points.
Food for Thought
The Tar Heels now have losses of 17, 29 and 28 points this season. There's a common thread in those defeats: they were against experienced, athletic, aggressive teams. At this point, it's a trend and you should be nervous about any teams that fit that description on the remainder of the schedule.
UNC has played 4 teams that are currently projected in the NCAA tournament field by ESPN. The Heels have lost those 4 games by an average of 20.8 points.
UNC’s 27 pt halftime deficit matched its largest over the last 25 seasons. The last time was against Duke in 2010. It was also the last time UNC did not make the NCAA tournament.
To get this preview kicked off, I want to revisit some of the keys that were mentioned in the previous Miami preview. There is a pattern here so bare with me.
We can’t turn the ball over and expect to win. 10 first half turnovers led to 20 points and 14 total turnovers led to 30 points. We only had 13 assists. You aren’t going to win games when you turn the ball over more than you share it or when more than a third of your opponent’s points are off turnovers. So big strike 1 there.
Our bigs needed to be able to guard the perimeter. Waardenburg went 5-6 from behind the arc and had 21 points. When he wasn’t making 3’s he had straight line drives to the basket for dunks. Strike two.
We needed to stop dribble penetration. Wong had 25 points on 9-18 from the field. McGusty had 20 points on 7-15 from the field. So add those two to the ever growing list of quick, aggressive guards that have torched our front court. Miami also went 13-28 from behind the arc. Most of these shots were open due to the inability to stop dribble penetration. Strike 3.
And just for good measure…..We need to continue to go to what works for us. What works for us is getting the ball into the post to Bacot. Getting the ball in the post has been our bread and butter for years and it still is even with a new offensive system. The first 5 shots the Heels took were from behind the arc. Bacot didn’t attempt a field goal until seven minutes had elapsed in the game. With 4 minutes to go in the first half he only had 2 shot attempts and one of those was from an offensive rebound.
Does any of this sound familiar? It should because if you go back and look at all of our losses they all show problems with all the areas mentioned above.
The Heels have a chance to right the ship after getting rocked by a Hurricane when they travel to Winston Salem on Saturday night. If you read the food for thought section then you noticed the snippet I took out of one of Adam Lucas’ articles. Lucas says you should be nervous of any team that is experienced, athletic, and aggressive. Well enter the Demon Deacons.
The Deacons start 4 seniors, 2 of which are grad students, and a junior. Two of their main bench contributors are freshmen, but the other guy is a grad student. So in their 8 man rotation they have 3 grad students. That’s a lot of experience. Their rotation is as follows:
STARTERS:
J. LaRavia F (JR 6-8)
I Mucius F (SR 6-8)
D. Walton F (GRAD 7-0)
A Williams G (GRAD 6-5)
D. Williamson G (SR 6-1)
BENCH:
K. Sy F (GRAD 6-10))
C. Whitt G (FR 6-3)
D. Monsanto G (RS SO 6-6)
C. Hildreth G (FR 6-4)
R. Mccray V G (FR 6-4)
This isn’t the Wake Forest team you have watched in years past. They have good size and they are led by 2 fantastic guards. Williams is absolutely the real deal and leads the team in points, rebounds and assists per game. Williams averages over 20 points a game and is joined by Williamson, LaRavia and Mucius when it comes to Deacs in double figures. Walton average 8.1.
Williams has scored in double figures in every game so far this season. LaRavia has been in double figures 14 times. Williamson has been in double figures 10 times and Mucius is close behind with 9 double figure games. Walton has 6. Off the bench Sy and Hidreth both have 5 double figure games each. They see the most playing time off the bench. Whitt has 1. Those 3 are highlighted because they are most likely to be a part of the rotation even though Hildreth did not play against Georgia Tech. Monsanto has been out with an achilles injury, but returned to action against Georgia Tech. It seems as though Monsanto took Hildreth minutes in the last game, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go 9 deep Saturday night. They have shortened up their rotation to 7 players at times, but I would expect to see the first 4 guys listed off the bench.
3 of their starters average over 30 minutes (LaRavia, Williams, Williamson). The other 2 starters (Mucius and Walton) average over 25. Sy averages 20.8. Hildreth, Whitt and Monsanto average over 10.
Fun fact…. This team does have some international flare to it. Sy is from Senegal and Hildreth is from across the pond in England.
Guarding the 3 point line has been a problem across the board for this team. Wake Forest doesn’t shoot the ball great from behind the 3 point line, but there is room for concern. For starters, Williamson shoots 39.1% from 3. He is really the only guard that has a significant number of attempts that shoots it at that percentage. Williams only shoots it at a 31.1% mark, but that isn’t really indicative of how big of a threat he is. Open shots are a lot easier to make than contested ones. The biggest problem I foresee us having is guarding their forwards. Again the percentages aren’t all that great but it’s definitely a part of their game. The 3 point percentages are below. Their forwards are highlighted.
3 point percentages
Williams 31.1% (23-74)
Laravia 34.2% (13-38)
Williamson 39.1% (34-87)
Mucius 37.8% (45-119)
Sy 31.4% (11-35)
Walton 20.7% (6-29)
The only one that shoots it at a somewhat high percentage is Mucius. He also has the most attempts on the team. We struggled to guard Waardenburg who shot it at a 38.7% clip. You can throw out the percentages when the shots are wide open. Their bigs are willingly to shoot the 3 so we have to play up on them.
Wake Forest runs a forward out backdoor set where one forward will screen, the other forward will jab-step up and then go back door. They have gotten 8 dunks off of it this year. Defending the pick and roll absolutely kills us. Opponents know to put us (especially our forwards) in pick and roll situations. Miami was extremely successful in doing this. It’s a set we need to be ready for.
Wake Forest has some size to compete with us in the post and their starting lineup presents some problems for several different reasons. They start 3 forwards. Mucius is the biggest threat to shoot the 3 and is more of a forward/wing combo. Black will most likely get this assignment due to Mucius’ size. Manek didn’t look good on defense against Miami, but Garcia still looks rusty so it’s anyone’s guess who starts alongside Bacot. Whoever it is probably gets LaRavia. Hopefully they don’t make him look as good as they made Waardenburg look. Bacot gets Walton who is less of a threat to shoot. I say this next matchup is a problem due to past games and effort issues. Love will have to guard Williams. Good guards have absolutely taken advantage of Love’s effort on the defensive end. Love did a great job in helping to limit Devoe just 2 games ago, so we all know the physical ability is there. Love absolutely has to show up on the defensive end of the floor for us to have a chance to win. Harris is out for the season due to academics so that leaves no backup defender in case Love struggles. Davis is too small and Walton is a terrible defender. Maybe if you get real desperate you stick Dunn on him, but if we get to that point then we are probably no longer in the game. This game goes as Love goes. If his shots aren’t falling and he decides not to play defense then it will be a long night. To round out the matchups, Davis gets Williamson.
Wake Forest is currently on a 2 game win streak with wins against Virginia and Georgia Tech. And yes I know beating those 2 teams is nothing to get hyped up about. We are exhibit A on that. They have close games against VMI and Charlotte. They lost to LSU by 14. They blew out Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, lost at Louisville, beat Miami at Miami, beat FSU and Syracuse (In OT) at home, and they have a 12 point loss to the coach k-less dookies. So there are some inconsistencies there, but this is a good Demon Deacons team.
KENPOM and the NET have us ranked pretty close.
Latest KENPOM ratings: UNC is 37th, Wake Forest is 40th
Latest NET rankings: UNC is 44th, Wake Forest is 45th
The keys to this game are eerily similar to the keys to beating any physical, aggressive and experienced team we have played. We can’t turn the ball over and we have to play defense. Neither one of these things have been executed right in these games. Defense will 100% dictate how this game goes. Wake Forest has 5 starters that can score and if we don’t stop dribble penetration it will be another long and frustrating night.
THINGS TO WATCH:
Rotation (The biggest question mark here is if the freshmen jump into the rotation this game. Styles had a good showing against Miami. Dunn played fairly well too. They made the most of their opportunity. I’m all for these guys getting playing time to send a message to the starters that they need to get it together. Johnson has also seen time in 2 consecutive games. We may know legitimately need them with Harris officially out the rest of season)
Handling pressure (Our guards have absolutely folded any time the opposing team puts any sort of ball pressure on them. It has also led to a lot of turnovers. They have to be able to handle ball pressure.)
Defensive effort (Hubert Davis has said he shouldn’t have to coach effort and that games like the Miami game wouldn’t happen again and well it happened again. What type of energy do we come out with? When does the internal switch get turned within these guys that they have to give maximum effort for 40 minutes?)
The First 4 Minutes (The first 4 minutes will be key to how this game goes. Miami came out and punched us in the mouth and we didn’t have a response. We haven’t had a response for getting punched in the mouth all year. How do we respond to adversity if there is any?)
Adjustments (This team as whole has not been great at making adjustments on either end of the floor. This is players and coaching staff included. What in game adjustments do we see? Do we see any adjustments?)
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