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Carolina Basketball: Kentucky Preview

Writer's picture: sarah willeysarah willey


GAME INFO:

December 18, 2021

5:30pm pm pm Tip Off

T-Mobile Arena (Capacity: 19,000)

Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: CBS

Spread is TBA


Records:

UNC: 8-2

#21 Kentucky: 7-2


Last Time Out:

UNC: Beat Furman 74-61

#21 Kentucky: Lost at Notre Dame 62-66


SERIES INFO:

The UNC-UK game will be a matchup of two of the three winningest college basketball programs of all-time.

The two teams last faced off in December 2020, with North Carolina winning, 75-63.

They've split their last six head-to-head matchups, but the Tar Heels lead the overall series, 22-16.


Team Leaders

Points:

UNC: Love (16.2 PPG)

Kentucky: O. Tshiebwe (16.3 PPG)

Rebounds:

UNC: Bacot (9.8)

Kentucky: O. Tshiebwe (14.4)

Assists:

UNC: Love (3.9)

Kentucky: S. Wheeler (7.7)


Furman Notes:

Dawson Garcia had 20 points on 7-12 shooting, 1-3 from 3, 5-6 FT, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 TO

Armando Bacot had 14 points on 7-12 shooting, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 TO

Caleb Love had 10 points on 3-10 shooting, 2-5 from 3, 2-2 FT, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 TO, 2 steals

Brady Manek had 13 points on 6-9 shooting, 1-3 from 3, 6 rebounds, 3 TOs

Leaky Black had 9 points on 4-5 shooting, 1-1 from 3, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal

RJ Davis had 6 points on 2-8 shooting, 2-5 FT, 3 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 TO

TEAM STATS:

50% FG (30-60)

31.3% 3 PT (5-16)

64.3% FT (9-14)

44 rebounds

18 assists

18 turnovers

44 points in the paint






The Furman game was another game where the Heels played down to their competition in the first half, pulled away at the start of the second half, built a double digit lead, and then held that lead for the rest of the game. It’s almost a broken record against that level of competition.


It was a game that saw Garcia score our first 9 points as he recorded his first double double as a Tar Heel. Bacot joined him with a double double and Manek was always in double figures. It was a game that we dominated in the post and took advantage of second chance opportunities. We had the size advantage down low, and we took advantage of it on a night where our 3 point shooting was off. It’s good to see us winning in a variety of ways and taking advantage of our opponent's weaknesses.


Defense in the second half was much improved from the first. Hunter only had 4 points. Harris and Love mainly got the assignment in the second half. We started to close out better on shooters. The result? They only made 2 3-pointers in the second half. This was our 5th straight game holding an opponent to 63 points or fewer.


Black didn’t have a great defensive performance, but was a surprising boost on the offensive end adding 9 points including his first 3 of the season. Harris was aggressive when he had driving lanes.


Another positive for the Heels? Puff Johnson was dressed out and went through warmups. He didn’t play obviously, but seeing him back healthy is a welcoming sign as ACC play inches closer.


This game was going to be a battle of basketball blue bloods, but the Heels will get Kentucky instead of UCLA as their program is now on pause due to covid protocols. A game that could have provided a huge win, and a no hurt loss has now turned into a must win. Kentucky remains in the top 25 at 21, but purely based on the fact that they were ranked so highly coming into the season. They lost their first game against Duke which is what I like to call a “no hurt” loss. It’s a great win if it happens, but it’s a loss against a quality opponent who is better. They then lost to Notre Dame in their last game. Those teams are the only noteworthy teams on their schedule. Both games, the Wildcats lost. Their best win is against Ohio University. In those 2 losses, they have averaged 32 points in the paint, 11 second chance points, 6.5 fast break points, and 9.5 bench points. Those numbers are a far cry from the numbers in the table above. To their credit, they have done a better job taking care of lesser teams than we have, but their schedule has been weak so far. The Wildcats come in at 21 in the latest KENPOM ratings. The Heels sit at 30.


The Wildcats do offer a lot more favorable matchup than the Bruins though. Calipari plays a 9-10 man rotation. A ton of guys have gotten playing time because of blowout wins against lesser competition. But 10 played against Duke and 9 played against Notre Dame. If anyone is worried about our perceived lack of depth this year, don’t be. Notre Dame played 7 players and still won. The starters for the Wildcats have been consistent all year. Collins started in place for Brooks Jr when they played North Florida. Brooks Jr. didn’t play in that game. The starters and rotational players are as follows:


STARTERS:

O. Tshiebwe F (Junior 6-9)

K. Brooks. Jr. F (Junior 6-7)

T. Washington Jr. G (Freshman 6-3)

S. Wheeler G (Junior 5-9)

K. Grady G (Graduate Student 6-5)


BENCH:

D. Collins F (Freshman 6-9)

J. Toppin F (Junior 6-9)

B. Hopkins F (Sophomore 5-8)

D. Mintz G (Grad Student 6-3)

D. Allen G (Redshirt Sophomore 6-6)

L. Ware F (Sophomore 6-9)


Relatively speaking this is a more experienced team by Kentucky standards. Only one freshman starts. Grady and Mintz are both grad students that offer a lot of experience. Mintz is a steady presence off the bench. They have 3 players in double figures (Tshiebwe, Washington Jr, Brooks Jr). Tshiebwe has been in double figures in 8 games, Washington Jr in 7, and Brooks Jr. in 5. Wheeler has 5 double digit games. Grady has 2 to round out the starters. Collins and Mintz have added 2 double figure games off the bench. Allen has been in double figures once. Obviously Wheeler is a capable scorer but everything runs through him because of his passing ability. He has 69 assists to 29 turnovers, and averages 7.7 assists a game. But as far as scoring goes they play through their starting forwards and Washington. Tshiebwe is a force on the offensive and defensive end. He has 17 blocks and averages 14.4 rebounds a game. Of his 130 total rebounds, 55 have been offensive. Brooks Jr is also a good low post scorer. Wheeler and Grady both average around 9 points per game, so their entire starting lineup has the ability to put the ball in the basket.


Wheeler and Washington Jr lead the team in average minutes per game as both average of 30. Tshiebwe, Grady, and Brooks average over 20. Mintz, Toppin, Collins, and Allen average over 10. Hopkins averages 9.7.


This is a Kentucky team that is somewhat undersized. They don’t have a player over 6’9”. This should give us an advantage in the post with the height of Manek, Garcia, and Bacot. There really isn’t any matchup that leaves us at a disadvantage. UCLA would have had us in a lot of mismatches. Kentucky has more of a traditional lineup. I personally think we match up well against them. They also aren’t a team that shoots the 3 well or really relies on it. Washington Jr. shoots 37.9% (11-29) from 3 and Grady shoots 40% (18-45). They really don’t have that one guy (Michael Devoe at Georgia Tech for example or Alex Hunter for Furman). We can play this team a little more straight up. It will still be imperative that we keep our man in front of us and to not over help on drives.


Davis gets the assignment on Wheeler. It’s a matchup where Davis won’t be undersized for a change. This could provide him more driving opportunities. Davis has forced up shots in the lane against bigger guards and has gotten shots blocked. This won’t be a problem with Wheeler on him. Love most likely gets Washington Jr. We need good defensive Love to show up. He has proven he can play defensive when he wants to. He needs to keep Washington in front of him. Black gets Grady with Grady being their best 3 point shooter. Bacot most likely gets Tshiebwe and Garcia gets Brooks Jr. Each team matches up fairly well with each other, but I still like our size advantage in the post. Both teams will pound the post and it will be crucial for both teams to keep their bigs out of foul trouble.


THINGS TO WATCH FOR:

Rotation (This is a hot topic, but I honestly don’t see the rotation changing much this game. Our current rotation matches up well against them)

Getting Walton Going: (Again I want to see some set plays for Walton, but I don’t see his playing time increasing much this game either unless Harris plays poorly on the defensive end)

Dribble Drive Defense (it’s crucial that each player takes keeping his man in front personally this game. Kentucky scores in the paint on drives and through their post players. They don't shoot well. Don’t make it easy because of easy penetration.)

Love vs. Washington (This should be a fun matchup to watch. Washington was a highly recruited freshman and Love has seen a huge jump in his sophomore year. Love needs to keep him in front and remain aggressive on the offensive end. Big time players play big in big time games)

Bacot vs. Tshiebwe (This is another opportunity for Bacot to prove he is one of the better post players in the country. He didn’t do so against Purdue. Bacot will have the height advantage but Tshiebwe has racked up 17 blocks on the year. The Wildcats need Tshiebwe to score, and Bacot limiting Tshiebwe will go a long way to getting a W. Both teams need these guys to stay out of foul trouble)


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