*Home games are on the left. Away games on the right.
There is a lot of hype surrounding this season for a variety of reasons. The Tar Heels have been picked to win the Coastal Division and are the favorites to compete with Clemson in the ACC championship. The Tar Heels have been listed at #10 in the latest power ranking. There are playoff sleeper talks and Sam Howell is a preseason Heisman candidate. Some key pieces were lost on offense in particular but Josh Downs and Khafre Brown showed they are ready to step up and fill some big shoes. Picking up Ty Chander will also help in the backfield as replacing Javonte Williams and Michael Carter is no easy task. The Tar Heels do have a favorable schedule though so let’s dive in.
The Heels have a 12 game schedule which starts at Virginia Tech on Sept. 3 and ends Nov. 26 at NC State. Well that is the regular season schedule. The schedule consists of 2 what I like to call “tune up games” against Georgia State (Sept. 11) and Wofford (Nov. 20). Both are home games. There are 6 games against coastal opponents, 3 games against Atlantic opponents and then the Notre Dame game (independent). We have 2 “rivalries” in Wake Forest (Nov. 6) and NC State as well as a home game against FSU (Oct. 9) for Atlantic opponents. The schedule consists of 7 home games and 5 away games.
Home games: Georgia State, Virginia, Duke, FSU, Miami, Wake Forest, Wofford
Away games: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech (Mercedes Benz Stadium), Notre Dame, Pitt, and NC State.
There are no back to back away games. Virginia Tech and NC State are Friday games. The Pitt game is a Thursday night game. There is a week off in between the Miami game and the Notre Dame game which are arguably the 2 biggest games of the season. Having an extra week to prepare for Notre Dame and recover from Miami will be crucial.
“Trap Games” include Virginia Tech, Pitt, and NC State. All are away games. I will get more into why in a second.
Biggest games of the year and games we are “most likely” to lose: Miami and Notre Dame. I am not saying we will lose these games, I am saying we are more likely to lose these games than the other games on the schedule. Again we will dive deeper into this in a second.
Worst case Scenario: 7-5
Now I don’t see this happening. This would mean losing all the games above, both trap games and the Miami and Notre Dame game. This is the absolutely worse case dooms day scenario.
Best case scenario: 12-0
Now some people might think I am crazy for thinking this is a possibility but it is. Notre Dame doesn’t have Ian Book anymore and the Miami game is at home. The last home Miami game was a thriller. I was there. I hadn’t heard Kenan that loud in a LONG time. This team has been inconsistent so I wouldn’t bet on this, but there is a chance.
Most likely scenario: 11-1 or 10-2.
A 11-1 record would leave our only loss being to Notre Dame. A 10-2 record would most likely mean a loss to Miami and Notre Dame or Notre Dame and any of the trap games. With this year’s team I could see either one of these scenarios playing out.
Week 1- @Virginia Tech (Sept. 3)
What a way to start the season. Being one of the first teams to kick off the college football season in Lane Stadium. Virginia Tech has been down lately compared to past success, but the last couple of years have been shoot-outs. We won the battle last year and the year before the Hokies came away with a 5-overtime victory. Justin Fuente is on the hot seat and we struggled against their QB last year. Our secondary should be a strength this year and we seem to have more depth on the line. This is a trap game for several reasons. One, it is the first game of the season so we may be rusty. They could be too but the motivation to beat the ACC Coastal Division favorite is high in Blacksburg especially on a big stage. It being an away game is the biggest factor. There were no or limited fans last year. Coming back to a packed stadium maybe an adjustment.
Week 2- Vs. Georgia State (Sept. 11)
I have this listed as a tune up game. Realistically this should be a game that we get ahead and use it to figure things on both sides of the ball as well as try some different things. But the Panthers have been to 3 bowl games in the last 4 years and they return their top offensive threats. They won the LendingTree Bowl last year. Not a team to be taken all that lightly, but still this should be a dub.
Week 3- Vs. Virginia (Sept. 18)
We stumbled against Virginia last year in a game we really couldn’t lose. The game left you scratching your head as it highlighted our inconsistency last year. This year’s game is at home though and Virginia will have to rely heavily on QB Brenna Armstrong.
Week 4- @Georgia Tech (Sept. 25)
Georgia Tech is off to a slow start in Geoff Collins’ first two seasons, but I am glad the triple option is gone. I use to dread this game for that reason as we always struggled against it. Georgia Tech does return QB Jeff Sims and running Back Jahmyr Gibbs but they lost their leader on defense, David Curry. This game will be played in Mercedes Benz Stadium and should be a game the Heels take care of.
Week 5 – Vs. Duke (Oct. 2)
We took care of business last year winning 56-24 and won in a thriller before that. The Devils have fallen off the past couple of seasons going from 8 wins to 5 wins to 2 wins last season. I expect a similar beat down this year.
Week 6 – Vs FSU (Oct. 9)
This was another game last year that left you scratching your head. We fell behind early before a late comeback fell short on a dropped 4th down pass. This was a game where we beat ourselves. FSU is still trying to get a lot of things figured out including their QB. McKenzie Milton transferred to FSU from UCF after that gruesome leg injury. If he is healthy he is most likely the starter, but its been a couple of years since he has played.
Week 7 – Vs. Miami (Oct. 16)
Back to back home games against Florida schools as this game will most likely decide the Coastal Division. Don’t think Miami forgot about the 62-26 beat down that occurred last year on their home turf. We are without the major reasons for that in Michael Carter and Javonte Williams. Miami has arguably the second best QB in the ACC in D’Eriq King. The last home game against Miami was a thriller. I would expect this game to come down to the wire.
Week 8- BYE
Week 9- @Notre Dame (Oct. 30)
This is the first or second biggest game on the schedule depending on how you look at it. Miami decides the coastal but if we beat Miami then this game may have huge implications for our playoff hopes. The Irish no longer have Ian Book, we struggled to contain him last year. Notre Dame was more physical than us last year and eventually wore us down. Hopefully we learn something from that tape. A more experienced offensive line and more pass rushers should help with that. An away game in South Bend is never easy though. It will take our best game.
Week 10 – Vs. Wake Forest (Nov. 6)
Another team that we ended up in shoot-out with last year. Sam Howell led us to a come from behind victory 59-53. Again another game that left you scratching your head early on as we got ourselves into a pretty big hole. Sam Hartman is back for the Deacs and he provides a steady presence under center.
Week 11- @Pitt (Nov. 11)
Another Thursday night matchup at Heinz field for the Heels and the Panthers as this game seems to be staple in the schedule at this point. It will be a short week for the Heels against a well-coached Pat Narduzzi team. Kenny Pickett gives a new meaning to the term “Super Senior” as it seems he has been there forever. I have this listed as a trap game because it is an away game coming off of a short week. Still Pitt has some new faces on defense and I think we have more offensive firepower than they can handle.
Week 12 – Vs. Wofford (Nov. 20)
There really isn’t a lot that needs to be said about Senior Day this year. Carolina should have this game out of reach by the 2nd quarter if not halftime and the starters should be able to get some rest.
Week 13 - @NC State (Nov. 26)
The Heels and pack are back to battling it out the Friday after Thanksgiving. This game wasn’t close last year as NC State had QB injuries. Somehow State managed to win 8 games last year and won the Gator Bowl. This probably saved Dave Doeren’s job. The game is away and takes place on State’s Senior Day and after last year you know they are hungry for a little revenge. On paper, we are the better team ,but we have to make sure we come to play.
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