Another top 25 showdown and another chance at a Mack Brown’s first marquee win in his return Carolina as the Heels are set to face #10 Miami in Coral Gables. UNC leads the all time series 11-10. You may remember the game in Chapel Hill last year when Sam Howell connected with Dazz Newsome in the corner of the end zone with 1:01 remaining for the go ahead touchdown. That same drive also saw a 4th and 17 conversion. I actually don’t remember the exact distance, but I just remember thinking it would be a miracle if we converted. I was at that game last year and I don’t think I have ever heard Kenan as loud as when Newsome caught the go ahead touchdown. Maybe besides later in the year when Surratt intercepted the ball at the goal line to beat Duke. The Miami game was also the first game I went to when alcohol was being sold. I paid $10 for a white claw… bad decision. It taste like TV static while someone yells the name of a fruit from the other room. I don’t know how ya’ll drink it. I will stick to my margs and other liquor drinks. You may also remember Connor Barth’s 42 yard field goal back in 2004 to defeat the then ranked #4 hurricanes. I remember standing in front of the tv watching that kick go through the uprights. My sister was beside me, and my mom was on the couch behind me. The outcome lacked a certain amount of energy since pops wasn’t there. That man is die hard Tar Heel fan ya’ll. He will yell at the tv with the best of him. Pretty sure he was traveling for business. Anyway Miami is 8-6 at home against us and won 47-10 in 2018. Our last win there was in 2016.
Miami is seeking their 6th straight win and both teams are seeking good bowl games. 8-3 would feel a lot better than 7-4. There have been talks that this is an Orange Bowl play in game. For me, the math doesn’t add up on that. We have 3 ACC losses (FSU, UVA, Notre Dame). Miami only has one (Clemson). Miami would have to lose to us and Georgia Tech for us to overtake them in the ACC standings. We would also need Clemson to beat Notre Dame. Clemson beating Notre Dame would probably put both teams in the playoff. Bowl games are solely based on CFP rankings, but I don’t see us jumping Miami if we beat them considering who have lost to. We have two bad losses. Miami has none. Despite how bad they looked against Clemson they have been as advertised this year except for a random thriller against State. State is 8-3 though. Not sure how that happened. Back to Clemson and Notre Dame for a second. I hate Notre Dame more than I hate Clemson. Notre Dame’s football team thinks they are too good to play in the ACC and because of the rona they have a chance to win the conference and represent us in the playoffs? I will make this as southern as possible… HELL NAW. Plus Brian Kelly and that entire program has been running off of what Notre Dame use to be for years. I can’t remember last time they won a big bowl game. So go tigers.
In the Western Carolina game our defense looked very underwhelming considering the level of competition. We either looked like we weren’t mentally there or our defense is truly just that bad. I hope it’s the first thing. Western was able to get several chunk plays, and several drives they seemed to move the ball down field with little resistance. It was a game Carolina was going to win though and had the feel of a scrimmage game. Both sides played a ton of players as Western Carolina’s actual season doesn’t start till the spring. On the bright side a lot of young players got meaningful snaps, and our offensive starters didn’t play the second half.
This sounds weird in these times, but Miami may actually have a home field advantage. At the beginning of the season they were allowing in 13k fans. I will admit I am not sure what the attendance limits are now but hey it’s Florida being Florida. Miami is revamped this year with a new offensive coordinator and a multitude of transfer players. In the past Miami hasn’t had the QB to put everything together, this year they do. King is a true dual threat QB and we have a problem with running QBs. We have to get him down when we have the chance or what happened in the Notre Dame game is going to happen again. It sounds dumb to say, but everything runs through King. I know you thinking “duh he is the QB”, but they really do go as he goes. He knows how to orchestrate the offense and their new offensive coordinator has added a spark they didn’t have in years past. Michael Hartley has emerged as their top receiver and he ranks 9th in the ACC in receiving yards. Miami does have a solid receiving core as well as two tight ends that are capable of starting. By the numbers, king is 7th in the ACC in passing yards and 4th per game. They have the 5th best scoring offensive. They are definitely more of a pass heavy team this year as they sit 4th in the ACC in that category. Their run game has cooled off after starting off hot and they ranked 9th in the ACC in rushing. Miami also averages the 5th most yards per game (445.6). And for the love of God, keep Gemmel out of pass coverage. He gets beat 99.9% of the time in pass coverage and he dang sure doesn’t need to end up in one-on-one situations with anyone.
Interesting note, Miami is 2nd in FBS in net punting, so if our defense does manage to stop them our offense is going to most likely have poor field position for most of the game. We are going to have to sustain long drives and take the ball the length of the field in order to score. When we do, we need points even if that means kicking a field goal.
The story of the game is more so their defense against our offense. Our offense numbers are impressive and we sit at the top or close to it in almost every statistical category in the ACC. Howell is first in passing yards. We average the most yards per game (534.3) and have the second best scoring offense (behind only Clemson). We have 2nd in passing offense, and 3rd in rushing. Brown is second in receiving yards and Michael Carter and Javonte Williams are 4th and 5th in running. Howell also averages the most passing yards per game. Miami stacks up pretty well on defense though. They have the 3rd best overall defense. They are 3rd against the pass and 5th against the rush. They make a living in the opponents back field. They are one of just 5 teams in the FBS averaging 9.0 tackles for loss or more per game. They are led by their two starting Des, Quincy Roche and Jaelan Phillips. They are 2 of just 10 players in the FBS with 14 or more tackles for this season. Roche ranks first in the FBS on solo sacks per game (.63) and in tackle for loss yards (249). Jaelan Phillips is first in the ACC in sacks with 7.5. Roche and Phillips are 3rd and 4th in the ACC in tackles for loss. Phillips has 22 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, and 6 sacks in 3 straight wins.Roche is first in fumbles recovered and Bubba Bolden is first in fumbles forced. In the secondary Al Blades Jr is 3rd in passes defended. That is a ton of numbers and rankings, but it can be summed up with this… Miami is good up front. Our offensive needs to hold their blocks to give Carter and Williams running lanes and attacking the inside of the line may be smarter than trying to run outside. We need to protect Sam Howell. He was sacked 6 times I believe in the Notre Dame game. That can’t happen again. He needs time to throw the ball. Miami gets into the backfield, so we may be playing behind the chains some which means we can’t shot ourselves in the foot. We can’t commit penalties and help them out. We can’t afford to be behind the chains all night. Notre Dame was able to make adjustments and shut down our offense, Miami is going to make adjustments as well. We need to be able to make adjustments of our own. If we want to be an elite program we have to adjust to other elite programs (yeah I know calling Miami an elite program may be a stretch based on the past couple of years).
So I will leave you with this… We can’t be stupid. We must get King to the ground. We have to play in front of the chains. Don’t let Gemmel be in pass coverage. Go Heels!
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