Series Breakdown Overall - UNC, 24-16
Neutral Sites - UNC, 12-6
Calipari vs. UNC - 7-3
Williams vs. UK - 9-10
Current UK Streak - W1
This will no doubt be another exciting chapter in the battle of two of college basketball blue bloods as The Tar Heels take on the Wildcats of Kentucky. This game doesn’t seem to have the “fire power” as it usually does, although it seems like a must win for both teams. This will be the first time the teams have played when one team is unranked since UNC was unranked on 12/4/10 and the first time in 21 games that both teams have played when neither team is ranked in the top 20. UNC is currently #22. Kentucky is 1-4, has lost 4 in a row and desperately needs a win. In that category I’d almost rather play our original opponent Ohio State. Both Carolina and Kentucky field relatively inexperienced squads. The Tar Heels play six freshmen among their first 10 players, with two freshmen in the starting lineup and three rookies among their top five scorers. Five of Kentucky's top seven scorers are freshmen and the other two are first-year transfers. I feel as though UNC might have the advantage as far as experience goes and definitely in the coaching department. Calipari is a great recruiter, but that doesn’t necessarily make him a great coach. He is probably one of the most overrated coaches in college basketball. This contest pits the nation’s #1 recruiting class (Kentucky) and #2 recruiting class (UNC) against each other. I feel as though this will add another level to the contest. These kids most likely played against each other in travel ball, so there should be some familiarity there. UNC and Kentucky are nearly identical in the statistical department:
• Carolina is averaging 4.0 three-pointers per game and is shooting 27.0 percent from three-point range; the Wildcats are making 4.4 threes per game and shooting 24.4 percent from beyond the arc.
• Carolina is averaging 4.0 turnovers more than assists; the Wildcats are averaging 4.6 more turnovers than assists.
• Through December 16, both teams had an effective field goal percentage of 46.9, tied for 224th in the NCAA.
• Defensively, UNC is holding its opponents to 67.2 points and 40.1 percent shooting from the floor; Kentucky's opponents are averaging 65.8 points and shooting 40.5 percent from the floor.
We are averaging 16.5 turnovers a game, kentucky is averaging 16.8
We have a 67.5% fT, kentucky is at 69%
Assist to turnover ratio is nearly identically, we are at a .8, they are at a .7
I would expect this game to be fast paced and have alot of turnovers. Kind of has the feel of whoever has the ball last will win. Turnovers will once again be big. Whoever can take care of the ball more and turn the other team’s turnovers into points will have the edge. This will be a key to every game and I will continue to beat this dead horse, but pound the post. I would put our backcourt up against any in the country, despite having 2 freshmen. Roy’s offensives thrive on dominant post play and you know he is preaching it. Some of best stretches of the young season have come from making a deliberate attempt to feed the post. We have gotten easy buckets down low or some open outside shots. Often times, this doesn’t come until the second half and we have already seen that we can’t keep digging ourselves a first half hole. While you know Roy preaches these things, this seems to be a difficult thing for our freshman guards to do. They don’t know how to feed the post, probably because they were never made to. They are trying desperately to be the star scorers. Pound the post until they can stop it. Just like how we ran the ball against Miami. They couldn’t stop it, so we didn’t stop it. Sam Howell is an excellent QB and wasn’t asked to throw the ball much. He was ok with that because he understands his job is to distribute the football. Our guards don’t get that and have already shown the inability to listen to their coach. They decided to double the post in the Iowa game, despite being told not to. Trust the system boys, it has won 3 national championships. I keep hoping the light bulb will come on because at times it seems like it never will. I know its earlier and COVID has definitely made the learning curve steeper, but I kept waiting for that moment last year and it never came.
Kentucky has 3 players averaging in double figures (boston Jr, Clarke, Sarr) Boston and Clarke are both freshmen. Boston leads them in scoring at 14.4 a game, has 12 total turnovers. Clarke averages 13.8 points a game, has 17 total turnovers. Sarr averages 12.2 with 10 turnovers
Against Notre Dame they started 3 freshmen, a grad transfer, and senior transfer last game. Kentucky has lost to richmond, kansas (62-65), Georgia tech (62-79), and Notre Dame (63-64)
Kentucky could be the first team that could possibly compete with us down low though. They started 7 ft Sarr and 6’10” Isaiah Jackson last game. It is worth noting they still lost to Notre Dame that game, but that is the most height Carolina has seen in a starting line-up up to this point. Jackson is a freshman though. Clark is a 6’7” freshman and is listed as a guard. He could present some problems for either Davis or Love depending on who he guards. They did start Mintz last game, another freshman who stands at just 6’3”. The Clarke match up ultimately seems like black’s responsibility with those starters for Kentucky. Carolina does have some familiarity with Sarr though as he is a transfer from Wake Forest. He will most likely be Brook’s matchup.
It will be a battle of desperate young blue blood teams. It is definitely a must win for Kentucky, but we also need a better win than Stanford, and a loss would knock us out of the AP top 25. Anything goes on Saturday afternoon. Go Heels!
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