GAME INFO:
September 3, 2021
Lane Stadium (Capacity: 65,632) GAME IS SOLD OUT
Blacksburg, VA
TV: ESPN
UNC 56.3% chance to win according to ESPN
UNC is a 5.5 point favorite
LAST YEAR’S RECORD
UNC 8-4 (7-3 in ACC)
Virginia Tech 5-6 (5-5 in the ACC)
LAST MATCHUP:
October 10, 2020
56-45 offensive shootout
The game saw the Heels jump out to an early 21-0 lead in the first quarter until the Hokies came roaring back in the 3rd quarter. Tech outscored us 23-7 in the 3rd quarter but we outscored the Hokies 14-8 in the 4th to seal the win. The game saw both offenses rack up a ton of offense: 656 total yards for the Heels and 495 yards for the Hokies. Behind 214 yards from Michael Carter, the Heels accumulated 399 yards on the ground for an average of 9.3 yards per carry. Virginia Tech racked up 260 yards on the ground with an average of 5.4 a carry. Hooker led the team in passing and went 7/13 for 136 yards. Burmeister (this year’s starter) went 7/15 for 79 yards.
QUICK HITTERS:
Virginia Tech leads overall series 24-13-6
The last time the Heels visited Lane stadium it resulted in the longest game in ACC history. The heels lost 41-43 in a 6 overtime thriller.
The Heels are 1-4 against the Hokies against under Fuente
The heels are 2-0 in season openers under Mack Brown’s current tenure
Mack Brown is 1-1 against the Hokies
Heels are 3-6 all time in Lane Stadium (2-6 since the Hokies joined the ACC)
The Heels last win in Blacksburg was a 30-27 overtime thriller in 2015 that clinched the Coastal Division title
The Hokies have averaged 40.6 ppg against UNC under Fuentes
All 5 of the Hokies top receivers are back: Tayvion Robinson (WR), Tre’ Turner (WR), James Mitchell (TE), Raheem Blackshear (RB), and Nick Gallo (TE)
Well college football is finally back and I don't think I have ever been this excited for Carolina football. I am only 25 so I wasn't around for Mack’s first stent on the hill, but I sure am glad he decided to run it back. I know you don't want to put too much importance on the first game of the season, as there is some rust to be expected but this game will show whether UNC has turned the corner. If you want to be a top 10 team and compete for a conference title and maybe even a playoff spot you have to win these types of games. The games you are expected to win. The Heels must take care of business, something they couldn't do last year in losing to UVA and FSU. The offense returns the nation’s best quarterback. Sam Howell is better than Spencer Rattler. END. OF. STORY. Returning with Howell is his offensive line that produced some very large holes for a dominant run game. Establishing the run game early and often will be crucial to allow Howell to throw the long ball. Ty Chandler comes from Tennessee where he ran for 2, 046 yards, 13 touchdowns and averaged 4.9 yards a carry. Pretty good numbers considering he played in the SEC. If our offensive line picks up where it left off last year expect him to have a big day. I would say the biggest question mark is at wide receiver, but Josh Downs and Khafre Brown both had promising performances in last year’s bowl game against Texas A&M. Downs had 4 receptions for 91 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brown had 2 receptions for 40 yards. Add two experienced receivers in junior Emery Simmons and Senior Antoine Green and super senior Garret Walston at tight end. I wouldn't expect too much of a drop off. Hopefully returning to a normal off season has allowed the offense to adjust to life without Williams, Carter, Brown and Newsome. Beau Corrales is out for this game and Mack Brown said he hopes to have him back by the end of the season. Not good news for Beau as the guy can’t get healthy. He hasn’t been a full participant in camp up to this point, so I would expect the team is already well prepared to play without him. Big bummer though as Corrales added some experience and was going to be a big red zone target for Howell. As mentioned above, the receiving core has experience in big time situations even without Corrales.
UNC returns a very experienced defense, the only player they had to replace was Chazz Surratt. The defense will be led by senior linebackers Jeremiah Gemmel and Tomon Fox. The secondary should be much improved with a good combination of young talent in Grimes, Duck and Conley and experienced leadership in Morrison and Chapman. Dre Bly has the “rude boyz” poised for a shutdown season. The secondary must have a good game since vtech returns all their receivers and keep their eyes in the back field to help contain a mobile quarterback. This is something we struggled with in last year's match up and continued to be a trend all season long. Burmeister didn’t play the whole game last year, but we got a sneak peek of his ability as a runner. He had 11 carries for 52 yards. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry with a long of 11 yards. He was mediocre through the air going 7/15 for 79 yards and 1 touchdown. He averaged 5.3 yards per pass and only had a QBR of 42.4. Expect Burmeister to get a lot of run options and be a factor in the run game. I could see Tech nickel and diming us to death, but I don't expect them to beat us deep. James Mitchell was their leading receiver against us last year. He had 4 catches for 103 yards and a touchdown. If we can stop the run and get them in obvious passing situations, we will be in good shape. Added depth on the line should help with this as Bateman finally has the rotation and size he has been looking for. Noticeably absent from the depth chart is Keeshawn Silver. The 5 star recruit and 8th best player in the nation is not listed on the Heels’ depth chart. My guess is he is still recovering from injury. The defensive line must get pressure and with a potential lock down secondary, I can see DC Jay Bateman supplying a healthy dose of the blitz. Both offenses have the ability to score and this could have the potential to be another shoot out. This comes down to which defense can make the big plays and get the crucial stop. Tech is going to try to rely on the fact that our receivers are “inexperienced” and may not be on the same page as Howell. In the words of Jason Bateman: “That’s a bold strategy Cotton, let’s see if it pays off for ‘em.”
Another big factor is fan attendance. Something that wasn’t a factor last year and for some this will be their first college game in front of a full stadium despite playing last year. Sophomores are essentially freshmen again when it comes to that. So for their first game in front of a packed house they get an ACC coastal opponent in a sold out road game. There is also a sense of familiarity for the youngsters as this kinda has the Friday night lights feel of high school football. Sold out crowd, 1st game of the season and prime time on ESPN. Raise up Carolina.
PREDICTED SCORE ACCORDING TO ESPN: 35-28 victory for the Heels (I second this prediction)
(UNC depth chart)
(Hokies depth chart)
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