GAME INFO:
September 18, 2021
7:30 pm Kickoff
Kenan Memorial Stadium (Capacity: 50,500) GAME IS SOLD OUT
Chapel Hill, NC
TV: ACC Network
UNC 71.2% chance to win according to ESPN
UNC is a 9 point favorite
RECORDS:
UNC 1-1 (0-1 in ACC) Coming off a 59-17 win vs. Georgia State
UVA 2-0 (0-0 in the ACC) Coming off a 42-14 win vs. Illinois
QUICK HITTERS
UNC & Virginia will face off in the 126th edition of the South’s Oldest Rivalry
Only Minnesota and Wisconsin have played more often (129 times)
UNC leads the all time series 64-57-4
Mack Brown is 3-9 against UVA. All 12 meetings have come as UNC’s head coach
UNC is 32-15-3 all-time at home against Virginia
The Cavaliers have won the last two meeting at Kenan Stadium in 2017, 20-14, and in 2019, 38-31. •
The Tar Heels have lost four in a row to the Cavaliers, the longest such streak since dropping four in a row as well from 2006-09.
Carolina's last win in the series came in Charlottesville in 2016. Mitch Trubisky threw three touchdown passes and No. 22 North Carolina came away with a 35-14 victory.
Last year in Charlottesville on Halloween night, Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong threw for three touchdowns and ran for another, and Virginia scored 28 consecutive points before holding on to beat No. 15 North Carolina 44-41.
Sam Howell is 38 of 57 for 796 yards and eight passing touchdowns in two career games against the Cavaliers.
TEAM LEADERS:
RB:
UVA: W. Taulapapa 15 carries, 83 yards
UNC: Ty Chandler 25 carries, 127 yards, 1 TD (Howell is actually the leading rusher)
WR:
UVA: D. Wicks 7 receptions for 163 yards, 2 TDs
UNC: Josh Downs 16 receptions for 196 yards, 2 TDs
QB COMPARISON:
Brenna Armstrong has 744 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT. 12 carries for 31 yards
Sam Howell has 560 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs. 24 carries for 139 yards, 2 TDS
The #21 Tar Heels are back at home for another night game in the electric Kenan Stadium. They open as 9 point favorites and have a 71.1% chance to win according to the match up predictor. Last year saw the Heels lose 44-41 in Charlottesville. UNC dominated the passing yards 443-208 but was dominated in the run game 93 yards to UVA’s 210. UNC fumbled the football twice but did get 1 interception. UVA sacked Howell 5 times. Brennan Armstrong rushed for 66 yards, so far this year he has 12 carries for 31 yards. Good news for the Heels is the Cavaliers leading rusher and receiver from last year’s match up, Simpson, is no longer on the team. There have only been two games so far this year. Virginia opened the season against William and Mary and then played Illinois, both were victories. Their defense did not allow any points in the opening game and only gave up 14 points to Illinois. Before anyone puts too much into their performance over Illinois… Illinois was 2-6 last year. I’m not trying to take away anything from their performance, but they are untested so far this season. Brennan Armstrong left the game in the second half as it appeared he injured his knee/lower leg. He received medical treatment and returned to the game wearing a knee brace on his right leg. It didn’t seem to affect him and it seems to be a non factor. Could it be a factor if we make him move around a lot? Only time will tell. Armstrong was the only QB to grade out higher than Howell last week. Armstrong, offensive lineman Olu Oluwatimi and tight end Jelani Woods were all recognized by the conference being named the quarterback, the offensive lineman and receiver of the week respectively. Meanwhile, Woods led UVA in receiving with 122 yards and one touchdown on five catches - the most receiving yards for a Virginia tight end since Heath Miller had 145 against the Hokies in 2003. Woods will be someone our defense needs to keep their eye on.
UNC opened the season with a loss to the now #15 ranked Vtech, allowing 17 points and then dominating Georgia State and once again giving up 17 points. If you compare the two opponents I would say UNC has the advantage of playing more challenging opponents. Virginia has alo yet to play a road game or be in a close game. A night game in Kenan for the South’s oldest rivalry is definitely a difficult task for a first road game of the season, especially after not having fans last year. UNC was also tested against Vtech and although it resulted in a loss, it was a good experience to be in a close game that early in the season. Advantage Heels on both accounts. This game will be won or lost upfront on both sides of the ball. UNC has given up 8 sacks this season and gave up 5 the last time these two played. UNC has only managed 2 sacks this season and has struggled to get any sort of a pass rush. Virginia has 4 sacks on the season and has only allowed 1. Stopping the run and stopping a mobile quarterback has also been a struggle. UVA dominated us on the ground last year and so did Armstrong. The front seven on the defense have to step up. Being bullied by Vtech might be acceptable but not against a non power 5 team in Georgia State. It is difficult to ask your secondary to cover wide receivers for an extended period of time. That might not be a problem if we can't stop the run. If UVA can establish a run game and stay on the field then that's less time Howell has the football. Maybe UNC brings some extra pressure from the linebackers or secondary to help stop the run and make Armstrong uncomfortable, but we gotta try something different because right now things aren't working. It is worth noting that Virginia also has a veteran offensive line who has looked more like a veteran unit than ours. Conley leads the team in tackles with 12 but left the Georgia State game early and had his hand in a cast, which would be a big loss if he can’t play. UNC must establish a rushing attack and do it early. It will be interesting to see if Howell remains part of the running game. He has had success and if you can force the defense to have to respect it then it could open up running lanes for Chandler and passing lanes. If they continue to overlook it well then Howell will keep showing off his wheels. The Georgia State game seemed to allow Howell and his receivers to get on track, but that won't be but so helpful if Howell is running for his life all night. At times we have an unwillingness to run the football and can become a bit predictable. Will the third game be the charm for the running game? I certainly hope so because the more you ask Sam Howell to drop back behind an inconsistent O-line the more potential for sacks, fumbles and forced decisions like you saw in the Vtech game. To put it quite simply it comes down to the run game.
I would expect the 2nd back to be running back by committee still. DJ Jones was the primary second back against Vtech, but he was out against Georgia State. British Brooks filled in against Georgia State and Caleb Hood played in garbage time. I would say to look for Howell to get plenty of RPO plays as well as a few designed runs. Howell is sneaky effective as a runner. I would say to expect an offensive shootout, but I said that for the season opener and well we didn’t quite get that. Both teams go as their QBs go, so the job for both defenses is to make each one as uncomfortable as possible. It is kind of early in the season for a must win game, but this feels like a must win game.
THINGS TO WATCH:
Is Howell still a factor in the run game?
Who steps up behind Ty Chandler?
Morales sees more snaps and an expanding role?
Khafre Brown sees more snaps?
Can our defense get pressure and contain a mobile QB?
Do we finally get the O-line performance we expect out of a veteran unit?
Does Storm Duck play?
UVA Depth Chart
Games to watch
#15 Virginia Tech (2-0) @ WVU (1-1) 12pm FS1
This is a game between 2 programs that used to be football powerhouses. It is also a matchup we don’t get to see very often. Virginia Tech has the potential to falter here even though it won’t affect their position in the ACC standings obviously. This is mainly on the list because I will be at this game. Lauren is in PA school in West Virginia and my best friend’s husband went to Virginia Tech, so we are getting together to watch what should be an exciting game. Plus, the drive to WV from Delaware is a lot better than the drive back to NC. Ever driven I-95 through DC and Richmond. It sucks. Very boring drive, so country roads take me home… sort of.
Michigan St. (2-0) @ #24 Miami (1-1) 12pm ABC
Michigan State’s record last year was not good. They only had 2 wins, but Miami has not looked good at all this year. They got blown out by Alabama and barely escaped App. St. Now Alabama does that to just about everyone and App. St. is a legit program, but the Canes just haven’t looked good.
Purdue (2-0) @ #12 Notre Dame (2-0) 2:30pm NBC
Purdue’s record last year was also not good. They were another Big 10 team with only 2 wins, but one of those wins was against Iowa. Notre Dame is another team that hasn’t looked great. They blew an 18 point to FSU and needed overtime to escape and they also barely escaped Toledo. This isn’t a game Notre Dame should overlook with it being an in-state rivalry.
This will be Alabama’s first test of the season and may be the biggest outside of their road trip to Texas A&M later in the year. This game is in Gainesville and Florida is looking for a signature win to solidify itself. Florida is still in a QB battle of sorts with Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson. This is Florida’s first test of the season as they have stayed in state (games against Florida Atlantic and South Florida) so far. I would still expect Alabama to come out of Gainesville with the W.
This is where College GameDay will be setting up shop this week. This game gives each team a chance to solidify itself early on in the season. Obviously this game isn’t going to affect either team’s chance at getting to a conference championship game, but it may affect their CFB and New Year's six bowl game hopes. Auburn has played Akron and Alabama State so they are untested so far this year. Penn st. started the season off with a win against Wisconsin and then beat up on Ball St. Auburn can make a statement by going into Happy Valley and getting the win or Penn st. can add another top 25 win to its early season resume.
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