GAME INFO:
September 25, 2021
7:30 pm Kickoff
Mercedes Benz Stadium (Capacity: 71,000)
Atlanta, GA
TV: ACC Network
UNC 77.9% chance to win according to ESPN
UNC is a 12 point favorite
RECORDS:
#21 UNC 2-1 (1-1 in ACC) Coming off a 59-39 win vs. Virginia
Georgia Tech 1-2 (0-1 in the ACC) Coming off a 8-14 loss vs. Clemson
QUICK HITTERS:
Georgia Tech leads all time series 30-22-3
This is UNC’s lone road game in a stretch of six weeks
UNC is 9-19-1 all-time on the road at Georgia Tech. The Tar Heels are 3-9 at the Yellow Jackets going back to 1997
The Heels did earn a 38-22 win in their most recent trip to Atlanta in 2019.
In the 2019 victory, then freshman Sam Howell threw four touchdown passes and completed 33 of 51 attempts for 376 yards as Carolina piled up 587 yards of total offense.
The two Coastal Division rivals did not play in 2020 after the schedule was reconfigured due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The two squads met every season between 1980-2019.
The series dates back to 1915 when the Jackets started a streak of four-straight victories that year with a 23-3 win in Atlanta.
UNC's first win came on the road in 1929 by a margin of 18-7
North Carolina head coach Mack Brown owns a 7-3-1 record against Georgia Tech.
UNC earned road wins in 1993, 1997 and 2019.
Brown is 6-1 over his last seven meetings with the Yellow Jackets that spans the 1992-97 and 2019 seasons.
TEAM LEADERS:
RB:
Georgia Tech: J. Gibbs 40 carries, 185 yards, 4.6 yards per carry
UNC: Ty Chandler 45, 322 yards, 3 TD, 7.2 yards per carry
WR:
Georgia Tech: K. McGowan 13 receptions for 205 yards, 3 TDs
UNC: Josh Downs 24 receptions for 399 yards, 4 TDs
QB COMPARISON:
Jordan Yates has 592 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT. 32 carries for 51 yards
Sam Howell has 867 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs. 39 carries for 251 yards, 2 TDS
The Georgia Tech game starts a critical stretch in the season where there are opportunities to pile on ACC wins. The Heels are home the next 3 Saturdays (after this game) with matchups against Duke, FSU, and Miami in that order. There can be no slip ups this Saturday or during this stretch. The Miami game was considered to be the game that decides the Coastal, but Miami hasn’t look good and we lost our season opener to Virginia Tech. Either way it is still a must win game. But I am getting a little ahead of myself.
Georgia Tech is somewhat of a head scratcher of a team. They lost to Northern Illinois to open the season, then beat up on Kennesaw St, and then nearly pulled off the upset against Clemson. The Tigers had to hold at the goal line to make sure the jackets couldn’t have a chance to tie the game. The Jackets held Clemson to just 14 points and Uiagelelei completed 18 passes for 126 yards. The addition of Justyn Ross did little to open up Clemson’s passing game. He had only 61 yards. Now this is a testament to two things. One, Georgia Tech does have the best pass defense in the ACC, but Clemson’s offense struggles are well documented so far this season. I’m not trying to take anything away from Tech’s effort, but Clemson is not the Clemson we are used to seeing. The defense forced 5 fumbles but only recovered one. Clemson’s run defense is ranked near the bottom of the ACC. They rank 11th allowing 161.3 yards a game. The strength of Georgia Tech’s defense are their linebackers. Redshirt junior Ayinde Eley (#10) leads the team in tackles with 28. Not far behind him is another Junior linebacker Quez Jackson (#4) with 25. Junior linebacker Charlie Thomas (#25) is third on the team in tackles with 24 and has both the team's interceptions.
Tech’s offensive struggles have been well documented as far. Their 8 points against Clemson came off of 2 field goals and a safety. They have a hard time getting the ball in the end zone with a red zone touchdown percentage of 55%. They are also 3-6 on field goals. Needless to say, the Jackets have struggled to score. Starting QB Jeff Sims has been out since he was injured in their season opening loss against Northern Illinois. Jordan Yates has stepped in and done a decent job, but the focus will be on their running back, Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs has been as advertised. He has 185 yards with a per carry average of 4.6 yards. His 78 receiving yards is good enough for 3rd on the team in receiving. Compare his total yards to Chandler and it isn’t even close. Another testament to Tech’s offensive struggles. The key for our defense will be to limit Gibbs and force Tech to find another playmaker. Tech has also allowed 11 sacks, so their offensive line is a little shaky. We have allowed 9 for a comparison and our offensive unit didn’t really wake up until the UVA game. Getting pressure in passing situations will force Yates into quick decisions. Although his running stats aren’t great, Yates is a threat to run with 32 carries on the year. Tech likes to control the game so getting the ball in the hands of Howell and the offense and out of Gibb’s hands will be big. Even though our defense looked shaky in the first half against UVA, they settled in after some halftime adjustments. We are giving up 24.3 points a game.
On the offensive side of the ball, we boast the 5th best offense in the nation even after the season opener loss to Virginia Tech. Being able to run the ball will be key in this game. I would expect it to continue to come in a variety of ways. It has pretty much been established that Howell is a permanent part of the running game, and Chandler is the clear number one back. Who gets the ball the most behind those guys is still in question. I would expect it would be Caleb Hood this game, but Mack hasn’t been shy about giving different backs carries when he isn’t seeing the production he wants out of the run game. The UVA game set the groundwork for a game where we need to run the football. I’m still not sure if any team has someone that can run with Josh Downs, but the run game needs to be established to open up the deep ball against the best pass defense in the ACC.
I think with Tech’s limited playmakers and the emergence of our run game, we should be able to get out of Atlanta with a W.
PREDICTION: 35-14
THINGS TO WATCH:
Does the O-line keep making strides?
Who gets the bulk of the carries behind Chandler?
Are we able to get the deep ball going against the best pass defense in the ACC?
Can anyone run with Josh Downs?
Does Khafre Brown get more snaps/targets?
Does Jay Bateman get out coached in the first half… again?
GAMES TO WATCH:
This is a huge game for both teams on a neutral field. The game will be played at Soldier Field in Chicago. Notre Dame hasn’t looked great all year and Wisconsin played Penn St. close in their season opener. ESPN is actually giving Wisconsin a 54.6% chance to win. This game will tell us a lot about each team.
This is another neutral site game, but this game will be played in Jerry’s World in Arlington, TX. Both teams are undefeated. Arkansas beat up on Texas in it’s only test of the year so far. A&M struggled against Colorado but escaped with a 10-7 victory. A&M is without their starting QB. If A&M can win then it will show that their home matchup with Alabama later in the year still holds a possibility to be Alabama’s biggest test of the year. If Arkansas wins then maybe they are legit this year.
#9 Clemson (2-1) @ NC State (2-1) 3:30pm ESPN
This really pains me to say, but Clemson is on upset watch this week. State has lost some key defensive players including LB Payton Wilson to injury, but they have given Clemson some scares in year’s past. Clemson struggled against Georgia Tech in Atlanta; will their offensive struggles continue in Raleigh? For the sake of us all I hope not. State fans are super annoying when they win games like this.
#24 UCLA (2-1) @ Stanford (2-1) 6pm PAC-12
Well everyone thought Chip Kelly was going to bring UCLA back from the dead and it looked that way after they beat LSU. They then turned around and lost to Fresno State last week. USC was supposed to be back as well, but they got beat 28-42 by Stanford. The game is at Stanford, but ESPN is still giving UCLA a 54.7% chance to win. The spread is only 4.5 points, so no matter what it should be a close game.
Wake Forest (3-0) @ Virginia (2-1) 7pm ESPN2
Why this game is on legitimate TV and our game isn’t blows my mind. Regardless, it should be a good game. Armstrong is one of the best QBs in the conference and Hartman is no slouch either. ESPN is giving UVA a 70.3% chance to win but the spread is only 4 points. Wake Forest is averaging 39.3 points a game, and UVA is averaging 41.3. I would expect this to be a high scoring affair.
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