GAME INFO:
October 2, 2021
12:00 pm Kickoff
Kenan Memorial Stadium (Capacity: 50,500)
Chapel Hill, NC
TV: ESPN 2
UNC 83.1% chance to win according to ESPN
UNC is a 18 point favorite
RECORDS:
UNC 2-2 (1-2 in ACC) Coming off a 22-45 loss at Georgia Tech
Duke 3-1 (0-0 in the ACC) Coming off a 52-33 win vs. Kansas
QUICK HITTERS:
UNC leads overall series 63-40-4
North Carolina and Duke meet on the football field for the 100th consecutive year and the 108th time overall this Saturday.
Carolina has won the last two games in the series, including a 56-24 victory in Durham in 2020. Sam Howell threw three touchdowns, rushed for another and finished 18 of 27 for 235 yards. UNC is 32-19-2 all-time at home against Duke, including a 22-16-2 record at Kenan. The Tar Heels won the last meeting in 2019, 20-17, and have won three of the last four overall in Chapel Hill.
In 2019, Chazz Surratt picked off Deon Jackson's trick-play pass at the goal line with 14 seconds left to help return the Victory Bell to Chapel Hill for the first time since 2015.
Carolina and Duke have met on the football field every year since 1922.
The series dates back to 1888 when the Blue Devils won 16-0 at a neutral site.
The first meeting in Chapel Hill was also Carolina's first win in the series in 1889, 1-0.
TEAM LEADERS:
RB:
Duke: M Durant 87 carries, 522 yards, 6 yards per carry, 8 TD (2nd in ACC in rushing)
UNC: Ty Chandler 62 carries, 370 yards, 3 TD, 6 yards per carry (6th in ACC in rushing)
WR:
Duke: J. Bobo 34 receptions for 385 yards (4th in ACC in receiving yards)
UNC: Josh Downs 32 receptions for 452 yards, 5 TDs (2nd in ACC in receiving yards)
QB COMPARISON:
Gunnar Holmberg has 1,140 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INT. 42 carries for 158 yards, 6 TDs (4th in ACC in passing yards)
Sam Howell has 1,173 yards, 11 TDs, 4 INTs. 55 carries for 259 yards, 3 TDS (3rd in ACC in passing yards)
I don’t think we needed a bigger indicator that ACC football is bad this year, but we got it. NC State got the monkey off their back by beating Clemson and kudos to them, but this is not the Clemson team of the year's past. It says more about how bad Clemson is than how good State thinks they are. This is a team that could very easily lose multiple ACC games. We lost to a mediocre Georgia Tech team. Again that isn’t taking anything away from Georgia Tech, but we once again made a subpar team look like it belongs in the top 25.
Preparation seems to be lacking and when this is a recurring problem you start to look at the coaching staff. Gemmel admitted that the defense didn’t prepare for Sims and it showed. That may be the most concerning thing to come out of this game despite the play, or lack thereof, by the offensive line. I’m assuming (bad thing I know) that the coaching staff knew Sims was healthy. Yates just got the nod in the past because he was playing well enough. The offense looked bad and in came Sims. We all know what happened the rest of the game. I’m not calling for Bateman’s head, but he has had a couple of years to prove himself with no improvement. Mobile QBs are a continuous problem for our defense. When does Mack consider moving on from him or giving the defensive play calling duties to someone else? Players continue to miss tackles and take bad angles. Asante is a huge guilty party here and this is why we have seen more of Cedric Gray.
This is the second game in a row where the defense has seemed lost and confused when the opposing team has brought tempo. There have been numerous occasions where Gemmel had his back turned, yelling at teammates when the ball was snapped. There have been times when we weren’t even lined up or didn’t get subs off the field. Why this wasn’t worked on after the UVA game, I don’t know. It is a pretty easy recipe for opposing teams. Go just a little faster than normal and the Carolina defense can’t handle it. Again what does Bateman have this unit working on during the week? Lack of pressure is still a problem. Getting one sack is unacceptable.
The offensive line was downright terrible against what was supposed to be the weak spot of Georgia Tech’s defense. Tech had 2 sacks all season before this game, they racked up 8 against us. Howell was under pressure all game. Part of this falls on him though. He held onto the ball for too long and missed some open receivers. Now Howell is a player that has a lot of poise, but he was pressing some this game. Tech keyed in on him running and forced 3 fumbles. It is quite obvious that teams take advantage of the chance to hit Howell and not all of them are clean. Quick pet peeve of mine: quit calling Howell a Heisman candidate, that ship has sailed. Not to be pessimistic but we could have gone undefeated and he probably wouldn't have won it because the name on his jersey isn't that of a football powerhouse. Drops don’t help though. That continues to be a major problem for Khafre Brown. The coaches want to get him going and get the ball in his hands, but he has to catch it first. Dj Jones was back healthy and again received the majority of the carries behind Chandler as the RB carousel continued.
I’m obviously not a coach, but anyone that knows anything about football can recognize that the play calling is questionable. It is either a run with Howell or one of the backs or it’s a deep shot down field. The immediate passing game is almost non-existent. It’s predictable. It also puts more pressure on the O-line to block when routes aren’t developing until the receivers are 20 yards downfield. Hey longo 5-8 yard pass plays work sometimes too.
The officiating is still god awful. I’m still not sure what is targeting and what isn’t and it's clear the refs don’t know either. There is also a clear unwillingness to change reviewed calls, especially in the away team’s favor.
This game forces the team to shift focus for the rest of the season starting with Dook. Losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech pretty much eliminate our chances at the Coastal title. It is sad to say that after just 4 total games, but those were games that we couldn’t afford to lose. ACC road games have been a problem under Mack Brown as we are under .500 away from Kenan Stadium. The next stretch of games provide a good opportunity to right the ship with 3 straight home games. Dook is in town this weekend followed by FSU and Miami. It is a crucial stretch of games before a trip to Notre Dame. Realistically the way this team is playing, they are looking at a 8-4 or 7-5 record. Honestly that is generous, we went from ACC champ hopefuls to a .500 team. Winning out is still a possibility, but there needs to be some major improvements. So let’s talk Dook.
Duke’s opponents so far were UNC Charlotte, a game that they lost, then went on to beat NC A&T, Northwestern and Kansas. Not exactly quality opponents or quality wins and a bad loss in UNC Charlotte. Just to put the Kansas game into perspective, Duke allowed Kansas to rack up 503 yards on offense. That’s a lot and it’s Kansas. Kansas’ RB Neal went for 107yards on 17 carries. Do the math that is a pretty good average. Kansas’ Trevor Wilson had 5 receptions for 122 yards and Kwamiee Lassiter had 4 receptions for 99 yards and a touchdown. There are a lot of big plays to be had against this Duke defense. Holmberg was adequate as a passer, but an even better runner against the Jayhawks. He accounted for 5 TDs, 4 of which were rushing TDs. He had 17 carries for 88 yards. Translation… Holmberg is a mobile QB and stopping a mobile quarterback has consistently been a problem. I would expect Duke to use Holmberg in this capacity a lot, along with a steady mix of the RB Durant. Duke’s offense can pretty much be summed up with 3 players: Holmberg, Durant, and Jake Bobo. If I was Duke I would run it until we could prove we could stop it, which hasn't been often. Durant is the real deal. He sits atop the ACC in numerous categories. He ranks first in scoring (54 points), total touchdowns by a running back (9), rushing touchdowns (8), and second in rushing yards (522) and all-purpose yards per game (171.75). Limiting Durant will be key as you probably aren’t going to just shut him down. Duke will find ways to get the ball in his hands. Our defense needs to make sure we don’t let the obvious option beat us.
UVA and GT both incorporated some tempo into their offense, in which we couldn't stop. Does Duke follow the same blueprint? You would think that we should be prepared for it, but we didn't prepare for Sims in the GT game. I am honestly confused as to what they are practicing at this point. If Duke can establish a running game it could open up the passing game for Bobo who has had back to back 100 yards games. Bobo is Duke’s best receiver with 385 yards. The next best receiver is Jalon Calhoun with 222 yards on 19 receptions. Durant is the third best receiver with 172 yards on 11 receptions.
Our defensive line can’t continue to get man handled. Myles Murphy has been the lone bright spot. We need penetration to contain both Holmberg and Durant. If we get pushed around then both players are going to have a big day. We don’t need to give Durant huge holes to run through, he is too good. Realistically we need to spy Holmberg with one of the LBs, but this isn’t a look we have utilized a lot this season. I think I can remember a handful of plays where Gemmel was used as a spy, but that’s it. We can't continue to miss tackles and take poor angles. I know all of this won't be fixed in a week but there should at least be some sign of improvement which hasn't been obvious for 3 years.
Holmberg is a graduate of Heritage High School, just outside of Raleigh. If you aren't very familiar with NC geography, he grew up about 45 minutes from Chapel Hill. UNC did offer him, but he obviously chose the wrong color blue. UNC vs Duke is all that needs to be said, but Holmberg may feel the need to show he belongs, considering UNC isn't too upset with how things turned out at quarterback. Sam Howell held on to the ball too long and missed some open receivers in the GT game. He was under distress most of the game, but he does have a history of holding on to the ball too long. I know he will be fired up to improve on a subpar GT performance, especially at home against our hated rival.
Duke’s defense only has 5 sacks, but GT’s defensive line was supposed to be a weakness but dominated our “experienced” line. Duke’s 5 sacks are by 5 different players (#23 S Young, #90 DT Carter, #93 DE Frye, #94 DE Oden, and #92 DT Peebles). Duke’s defense is led by Redshirt Junior LB Shaka Heyward. He has had 2 double digit tackles games this year and has led Duke in tackles in 3 out of the 4 games so far this season. He also leads Duke and the ACC in tackles with 42. And it’s honestly not even close behind him on the roster. S Lummie Young has 28 tackles and LB Dorian Mausi has 25. All 5 of their interceptions are also by 5 different players (#42 LB Heyward, #23 S Young, #29 S Thompson, #33 CB Johnson, #39 CB Lewis). Thompson has only played in 2 games and Lewis has only played in 3.
We need to establish a run game, similar to that of the UVA game. It will be interesting to see if Howell remains a staple in the running game. He fumbled 3 times against GT and it's obvious that teams relish the opportunity to hit QB1. Not all of them are clean. Definitely something to watch in an emotionally charged rivalry game. The play calling must improve. The mid/short range passing game not called WR screens needs to be utilized. If you can consistently get 5-6 yards per play you will move the ball down the field. Perhaps nickel and diming a defense is the answer since running for no yards, getting sacked or throwing it down field for it only to be incomplete isn't working. There are a lot of things that need fixing on both sides of the ball as the Georgia Tech game seemed like the tipping point for a lot of people. It is quite clear we haven't turned the page and people are looking for signs of improvement. A loss to Duke might seal both the DCs and OCs fate.
To put it quite simply, Duke’s defense isn’t very good. They gave up a ton of yards to a Kansas team that is 1-3 and has been historically bad. Their run defense is even worse than ours and there are some big play opportunities when it comes to the passing game. Just look at what the Kansas receivers were able to do. With the right play calling, this is a game that can see our offense go off. Duke is second to last in the ACC in total defense. This could also be an offensive shootout being that both teams are close to each other in most offensive categories in terms of ACC standings. I feel better knowing this game is at home. Dub Tar Heels.
THINGS TO WATCH FOR:
Is Howell still a big part of the run game?
Is there a clear #2 back behind Chandler?
Does Khafre Brown catch a deep ball?
How does the O-line respond?
Is the defense prepared for Holmberg the runner?
How many big runs does the defense give up to Durant?
ACC RANKINGS
(For more rankings see link below table)
GAMES TO WATCH:
#5 Iowa (4-0) @ Maryland (4-0) 8:00pm FS1
Iowa has found itself as the first team out of the college football playoff if the season ended today. The Hawkeyes are undefeated and beat both Iowa St. and Indiana pretty convincingly. Somehow Maryland is undefeated, but they did beat WVU (who gave Oklahoma a scare last week) to start the season. This game is at Maryland, but still advantage Iowa. They open as 3.5 point favorites.
#13 BYU (4-0) @ Utah State (3-1) 9pm CBSSN
It’s the stormin’ mormon game. Byu is undefeated after defeating both Arizona St. and Utah. Utah St had looked good until they fell 3-27 to Boise St. ESPN isn’t giving the aggies much of a chance in this one as they have given the nod to BYU with a 74.2% chance to win. It would be a decent late night game if you have nothing else to do and happen to get CBSSN.
Both teams are undefeated and Georgia faces its first test since their season opener against Clemson. The way Arkansas has been playing this seems like a bigger test for them. Arkansas man handled Texas and beat Texas A&M last week proving they are legit this year. This game is in Athens though. ESPN gives Georgia a 89.1% chance to win and they open as 18.5 point favorites. I have said all year that it’s Alabama, Georgia and then everyone else. Georgia needs to win this game to continue to prove that. I think this game will be a lot closer than what ESPN is predicting. Still the dawgs will win at home.
#14 Michigan (4-0) @ Wisconsin (1-2) 12pm FOX
Michigan hasn’t necessarily been tested yet this year; Wisconsin has. Wisconsin’s losses are against Penn St. and Notre Dame. Is Michigan a contender in the Big Ten this year? We will find out. This game is at Wisconsin, but ESPN is still giving Michigan a 69% chance to win. The spread is much smaller at 2 points.
Slightly weird kickoff time, but this game is pretty big for both teams. Cincy has a chance to prove it belongs among the big boys, and Notre Dame has a chance at another good win. They took care of business last week against Wisconsin. Cincy defeated Indiana last week 38-24. This game is at Notre Dame and ESPN has them as a 2 point favorite. Both teams need this game to stay relevant.
Lane Kiffin gets a chance to break the curse of assistants that haven’t been able to beat Nick Saban. Unfortunately for him, this game is in T-town. Both teams are undefeated and Kiffin is looking for a statement win. He has one of the best QBs in the country in Matt Corral. Ole Miss’ offense is explosive, but they are somewhat untested. Alabama also has one of the best QBs in the country in Bryce Young. Both offenses are putting up a ton of points, but Alabama has a defense. They passed their first test by beating Florida in the swamp, and this will be their second test of the season. Bama opens as a 14.5 point favorite.
Louisville (3-1) @ #24 Wake Forest (4-0) 12:30pm ESPN3
If you have watched Sam Hartman and Wake Forest play this year then you know they are a pretty good team. Hartman is one of the better QBs in the ACC. Wake Forest needs this game to control its destiny in the Atlantic division as they could very well beat Clemson and State.
#3 Oregon (4-0) @ Stanford (2-2) 3:30pm ABC
Oregon needs this game to keep their and the PAC-12’s playoff hopes alive. It’s that simple.
#6 Oklahoma (4-0) @ Kansas State (3-1) 3:30pm FOX
Oklahoma and Spencer Rattler get another test as they have to go to K-State. The Sooners open up as 10.5 point favorites but Manhattan, KS is not an easy place to play.
#10 Florida (3-1) @ Kentucky (4-0) 6pm ESPN
Florida needs this game to keep their hopes in the SEC alive. Mullin has also been doing a lot of talking. They need this win to stay relevant. They open as 8 point favorites on the road.
Baylor has a football team again say what? It is an intriguing game in the Big 12. Ok St. opens as 3.5 point underdogs at home.
Boston College (4-0) @ #25 Clemson (2-2) 7:30pm ACCN
Lucky for Clemson this game is at home, but they still need to figure things out on offense. They open as a 15.5 point favorite over the visiting Eagles.
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